I think its improbable we're in Dayton, but I think it requires a few of these things happening -- none of which are difficult to imagine:
-- We lose by 15+ points
-- A&M or Mississippi State winning the SEC tournament
-- UVA or Pitt wins AAC tournament
-- New Mexico wins MWC Tournament
-- Colorado wins Pac-12 tournament
-- FAU loses in the AAC tournament = bid stolen (already accounted for in current brackets in South Florida is the AAC AQ due to best regular season record)
-- Providence beats Marquette, either wins BET or plays UCONN close