Bubble Watch

Even finishing with two more wins... we still only own 1 win over a certified Tournament team (let's say projected 9 seed or better). That collapse vs Seton Hall hurts more each time I look at the "Bubble".... feel that we would almost be a 10-seed had we won that.

I know the Metrics love us.... be think we will need to get to Saturday night at the BET to "feel confident"- that will be two more wins vs Tourney teams.

The way Rick has these guys playing right now- I actually think we do it. These guys Look Good... keep with this effort and this BET can be fun.
 
Does anyone recall, when a team playing in a Big East tournament semi-final, not receive a bid to NCAA tournament?
 
Las Vegan said:
Does anyone recall, when a team playing in a Big East tournament semi-final, not receive a bid to NCAA tournament?
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Yea 2020-21 Seton Hall defeated us in the quarterfinal (in OT) but then went on to lose to #8 seed Georgetown who went on their Cinderella run to the dance. Seton hall didn’t make the tournament
 
For the BE tournament, it looks like it will be tough for us to get the 5th seed and a bye. Even if we win out, we would still need Providence to lose 2 since they own the tie breaker. Is that correct?
 
KG44 said:
For the BE tournament, it looks like it will be tough for us to get the 5th seed and a bye. Even if we win out, we would still need Providence to lose 2 since they own the tie breaker. Is that correct?
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Yes needs to lose 2 out of 3 to Nova / Gtown / Uconn.
 
Beasts of the East said:
There are a lot of ways to look at our chances. One is how many bids the Big East gets. Seton Hall appears in unless they collapse. So if its 5 teams in we are up against Nova and Prov. We could secure 5th place on tiebreakers but if Nova or Prov have better resumes, one of those teams gets in. Our chances increase dramatically if 6 teams get in.

We definitely must win our 2 remaining games which couldn't possibly be situated better since DePaul is the weaker and that's away. From there I'd say if we get to Friday semis with either one or two wins we are in.
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100% Agree.
 
KG44 said:
For the BE tournament, it looks like it will be tough for us to get the 5th seed and a bye. Even if we win out, we would still need Providence to lose 2 since they own the tie breaker. Is that correct?
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Key to that happening is Nova beating them in Providence this weekend which would be a huge plus for us.
 
Redmen88 said:
Hopefully things are a little different this year. RP said one of the most difficult things at Iona or any small/mid-major was having to win the end of season tournament to get in the NCAA T. Everything hinged on the tournament so RP knows how to get his team ready for end of season tournaments. I know that we are all aware of SJ's history. Hoping somethings start to change now.
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We have been living on hope for years, and are used to it. I don't breathe easy until the final buzzer. Except for the Creighton win. McDermott threw in the towel, and I couldn't help but throw a celebratory fist in the air. While home alone in front of my TV. I can't do that again. Almost threw out my shoulder.
 
NCJohnnie said:
Key to that happening is Nova beating them in Providence this weekend which would be a huge plus for us.
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Agreed, then hoping Villanova loses one and we win out. The bye would help a lot. Otherwise, the second round matchup will be really tough.
 
mjmaherjr said:
Strange thing about momentum. When you have it it’s very easy to put the bad stuff out of your mind
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Not for me. I'm trying to work on it but not making any progress. Even in the midst of this encouraging 3 game winning streak I'm just waiting for the hammer to drop.
 
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carmineabbatiello said:
Not for me. I'm trying to work on it but not making any progress. Even in the midst of this encouraging 3 game winning streak I'm just waiting for the hammer to drop.
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Luckily, if we just play like we did last night, there is no shot DePaul or GTown beat us. So we can ride this streak a little longer.

But yes, the Big East Tournament has historically been where johnnie postseason dreams go to die. I will be nervous as hell when those games arrive
 
With Providence and seton hall reeling, I have a feeling we are going to see a Nova/Johnnies 4/5 game on Thursday night in the BET.
 
Mullins Revenge said:
With Providence and seton hall reeling, I have a feeling we are going to see a Nova/Johnnies 4/5 game on Thursday night in the BET.
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We could play nova but it would be in the 3vs6 game

That would require
Nova - 3-0 (prov/Hall/creighton)
Creighton - 0-2 (marq/nova)
Seton hall - 1-2 (UConn/ DePaul/ Nova)
St. John’s - 2-0 (DePaul / Gtown)

Nova would finish 3 / creighton 4 / hall 5 / St. John’s 6
 
Pretty straight forward for us now imo. Thursday of the BET is an NCAA Tournament play in game for us sans an inordinate amount of bid stealers emerging (root for Dayton and FAU to win their conference tournies as a starting point). Obviously that is moot if we drop one of these final 4 regular season games but if we do then we don't deserve it anyway.

Getting the 5 seed is huge right now. As NCJohnnie said a Villanova win over PC this Saturday would be big. Then we would just need Villanova to not win both of their final 2 games. If PC wins on Saturday then we'd need Villanova to win both of their final 2 or PC to somehow lose @Georgetown. Much tougher path
 
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