Bubble Watch

Beasts of the East said:
Here's the thing:

Going back to Lavins first year

Lav"s first team crested mid-season, cooled off, and were finished when Dj went down. We went down meekly in round 1 of ncaa's

Lav's final team stumbled to an at large bid, Dlo was banged up, Obekpa suspended and we went out quietly.

Mullin's final team was spoken early as a dark horse final 4 team, backed into a Play in game and left a stench in Dayton.

Pitino’s team, whether they get in or not, rose from the near dead and are in position to win out (5) in the regular season. Regardless of outcome, if they take care of bisiness they have my complete respect as the first team in 20 plus years to finish strong. Good for them.
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While it is a useless exercise, I can not help but think of what if.... they jelled sooner.
 
This is going to come down to our opener in the BET. We’re going to enter on a five game winning streak after we beat DePaul and Georgetown. If we win our opener, I think we’re in no matter what. If we lose that game, it’ll be a sweat.
 
There are a lot of ways to look at our chances. One is how many bids the Big East gets. Seton Hall appears in unless they collapse. So if its 5 teams in we are up against Nova and Prov. We could secure 5th place on tiebreakers but if Nova or Prov have better resumes, one of those teams gets in. Our chances increase dramatically if 6 teams get in.

We definitely must win our 2 remaining games which couldn't possibly be situated better since DePaul is the weaker and that's away. From there I'd say if we get to Friday semis with either one or two wins we are in.
 
hnkcolumbia said:
We beat Nova twice.....shouldn't that matter somewhat? And we win out we'll be at least tied in league for 5th w N and P. We'd win tie breaker to N and lose to P.
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I think it is very possible both PC and Nova falter in their last few regular season games and we wind up very favorably with respect to both, assuming we take care of business. Also think the conference sends 5 (or even 6).
 
Many pundits saying things like sju “has work” to do or needs to win multiple BET games. But I don’t think it’s clear what they need to do. It’s just very hard to predict and there are many scenarios since performance of the other bubble teams matters too.

For example, if nova and Utah finish strong, that could give SJU two more quad 1 wins. We’d have 5 quad 1 wins and a 4-2 quad 2 record. Also, likely to be top 40 net and top 35 kenpom. In that scenario our resume looks tourney worthy even at 19 wins. But nova and utah finishing strong also means those teams may be ahead of us on the bubble.

To me the biggest thing is that this team actually looks fully capable of making a BET run right now and haven’t felt that way in a looong time.
 
Hardy said:
Many pundits saying things like sju “has work” to do or needs to win multiple BET games. But I don’t think it’s clear what they need to do. It’s just very hard to predict and there are many scenarios since performance of the other bubble teams matters too.

For example, if nova and Utah finish strong, that could give SJU two more quad 1 wins. We’d have 5 quad 1 wins and a 4-2 quad 2 record. Also, likely to be top 40 net and top 35 kenpom. In that scenario our resume looks tourney worthy even at 19 wins. But nova and utah finishing strong also means those teams may be ahead of us on the bubble.

To me the biggest thing is that this team actually looks fully capable of making a BET run right now and haven’t felt that way in a looong time.
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Agree Hardy, media pundits like to talk in absolutes about what games we need to win, but with the constant fluidity of the "quad game" system, teams resumes can change on a dime. I have no problem being a Ute and Wildcat fan for a couple weeks here lol.
 
Can someone explain the tie breakers if we finish 11-9. I understand we lose a direct tie breaker with Providence on points? I assume we would then beat out Villanova or Xavier head to head on points? What happens in a three way tie?
 
I always feel great college coaches have the ability to right the ship during adversity; poor starts in league play, digging out of holes, stealing games late and competing on the road.

I don’t feel all of Rick’s presser quotes and tweets were all a secret plan to motivate guys. I believe he just let frustration get to him a bit. As a guy close to his age I get that. However, he clearly gathered himself and with staff developed a great game plan v Creighton, concentrating on fact CU aggressively protects three point shots, but vulnerable to mid range game. On D he had guys primed to play a bit of bully ball and shook them up. Last night he had team focused to attack a porous Butler D while for most part shutting down two of their three scorers.

At this point more than ever I appreciate having a seasoned, winning guy at the helm. Yes, he had to catch up on recruiting a team and establishing rotations, but he kept the players’ heads up after losing 8 of 10. As Beast noted in another post, even if we come up short for bid, I still feel this would be a solid foundational year one and keep the program in a positive light as a competitive destination.

Now finish strong, maybe steal a bid and in any event feel very good about the season. Next year will be tough, but if we retain the core & land solid portal group, it could be a very productive year two.
 
Andrew said:
Can someone explain the tie breakers if we finish 11-9. I understand we lose a direct tie breaker with Providence on points? I assume we would then beat out Villanova or Xavier head to head on points? What happens in a three way tie?
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https://bball.notnothing.net/bigeast.php?sport=mbb

use the site above it Explains the tie breakers once you go through projections.....Nothing is on points....3 way tie it would go to a 3 team Pod Tiebreaker would be best record of the 3 team mini pod so for example.....if St Johns, Prov and Nova all 11-9...St. John's would be 5 seed based on 3-1 record vs Nova & Providence.

If St. Johns & Prov are tied at 11-9 we lose tiebreaker due to record vs Best conference team we would be 0-2 vs Marq where Providence is 1-1.
 
redfan9999998 said:
https://bball.notnothing.net/bigeast.php?sport=mbb

use the site above it Explains the tie breakers once you go through projections.....Nothing is on points....3 way tie it would go to a 3 team Pod Tiebreaker would be best record of the 3 team mini pod so for example.....if St Johns, Prov and Nova all 11-9...St. John's would be 5 seed based on 3-1 record vs Nova & Providence.

If St. Johns & Prov are tied at 11-9 we lose tiebreaker due to record vs Best conference team we would be 0-2 vs Marq where Providence is 1-1.
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Thanks! So basically if we win out and Providence wins against Nova we likely finish sixth but if Nova wins we can finish between fifth and seventh?
 
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