We don’t need the finals. We just need to be playing Friday night.
Bubble Watch
- Thread starter hnkcolumbia
- Start date
buckethead
Well-known member
I concur. Friday night (assuming 2 wins vs Depaul/Gtwon) should have us sitting pretty sweet. I know we had a rough stretch but the stronger OOC schedule is going to come back in our favor. If we had last years OOC, I would be worried about anything but winning the tourney.
My Confidence Level:
-Muck up vs Gtown/DePaul - 0% - need to win BET
-19-12 - Win Wed night / Lose Thurs - 25%
-19-12 - Bye / Lose Thurs - 50% (finishing 5th in BE will hold weight)
-19-12 - Playing Friday Night - 70 %
-19-12 - Playing Saturday Night - 100%
MugCostanza
Well-known member
The computers like us more than people apparently.
Bart currently gives us a 93% chance to get in. TeamRankings gives us a 65% to get in. Haslam's current bracketology has us as the 2nd to last team in. Think the computers (especially Bart) are a little too bullish on us but we're right on the line I think.
Bart currently gives us a 93% chance to get in. TeamRankings gives us a 65% to get in. Haslam's current bracketology has us as the 2nd to last team in. Think the computers (especially Bart) are a little too bullish on us but we're right on the line I think.
Disagree. Win out regular season and win one in BTET and I think w/ our net and 20/11, we are in.
It's super hard to predict, but I'd have higher confidence with a wednesday win and thursday loss as compared to a bye/thurs loss. In the former case, we'd likely move up in NET due to a (hopefully) decent margin win on Wednesday and our Thursday loss would be to a high NET team like Marquette or Creighton, so that wouldn't hurt us. In the other scenario, we'd likely have a loss to seton hall (and no wednesday win) which would be worse for resume and metrics.
Wrote about some games taking place tomorrow (3/2) to keep an eye out for: (Bubble teams for are in BOLD)
1. 12pm on ESPN U: Tulane @ FAU - I have mentioned a few times this year that FAU could put themselves in big trouble if they lose a few more conference games. Well tomorrow, an old friend Kolby King has the chance to do us a solid if him and Tulane could upset the Owls. A home loss to a Tulane team that has really faded in conference play, would put FAU squarely on the bubble (Lunardi has them in "Last Four Byes" currently)
2. 12pm on FOX: Nova @ Providence - Obviously this game is massive for us. A nova win here likely makes them a Q1 for us which would be huge. The better Nova does down the stretch, the better we look for sweeping them.
3. 5:30pm on The CW: Wake Forest @ VTech - This is a sneaky huge game tomorrow. I say sneaky because its been shoved off to the CW Network, since when do they air CBB? Anyway, I have my eyes on this one because VTech has been a personal fav team of mine lately. They're one of those P6 teams you need in the mix because, they aren't good enough to make the tournament and threaten our positioning, but they are good enough to hold serve at home and take some other bubble teams down a notch. This Hokie team is 6-2 at home in ACC play, their only losses were close games against Duke/Miami. Last time they played at home they beat the crap out of rival Virginia (more on them later). Look for the Hokies to beat WF here, and cause the Deacons to essentially ruin all the momentum from beating Duke by losing to Notre Dame and Vtech back to back.
4. 6pm on SECN: Texas A&M @ Georgia - I have no clue why A&M is still showing up on the bubble in a bunch of brackets. They are 15-13, they have lost 5 in a row. Alright, as I type this... I can see why as I go through their schedule. They've beaten Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, Iowa State. That is a lot of good wins. But if they keep losing, the committee cannot justify putting this squad anywhere near a tournament that isn't spelled N-I-T. A loss tomorrow @Georiga, one of the weakest teams in the SEC, would surely put A&M nearly out of the conversation entirely.
5. 8:30pm on SECN: Ole Miss @ Missouri - It is concerning me that Ole Miss is hanging around on the bubble. After a near perfect start to the season, they have lost nearly every big game this year. The supposed signature wins they got in non conference (Memphis and NC State) have both ended up being mediocre wins. Their whole resume essentially rides on the fact that they beat Florida once, but there is not much else here that points to them being a tournament team. Missouri however, has been terrible this year, they are the SEC's DePaul essentially... as they are winless in conference play. However, when these teams first played @Ole Miss, it was a 79-76 final in favor of the Rebels. If Missouri can just nab this win at home, we won't be seeing Ole Miss on the bubble anytime soon unless they go on a magical SEC Tournament run.
Honorable Mention Games:
- Virginia @ Duke (6pm on ESPN): I find it unlikely the committee leaves out Virginia. But if they lose to Duke, lose to Georgia Tech and then lose early in the ACCT? I would like to see it.
- Gonzaga @ St. Mary's (10pm on ESPN): I also find it unlikely the committee will leave out Gonzaga. But if they lose this game and get upset early in the WCC tournament, it is something worth monitoring as of now.
- Michigan St @ #2 Purdue (8pm on FOX): Michigan St, given their talent, is one of the more disappointing teams in the country this year. If they lose this game (which they should), and then lose their last 2 (vs Northwestern & @Indiana) things get ugly in a hurry
- Colorado St vs Wyoming (4pm, untelevised?): The Mountain West conference fascinates me. What is the committee going to do with these teams? CSU is about a 7-8 seed in most brackets right now. But they are 8-8 in conference play. A home loss to a lackluster Wyoming team to put them under .500 in MWC? I feel like this is another sneaky one to keep an eye on.
- New Mexico @ Boise St (8pm on CBSSN): Lil Pitino is squarely on the bubble after an awful loss to Air Force. Boise St could be considered bubbly in their own right, but NM is undoubtedly the more vulnerable team here, so I would prefer they lose this one. Sorry Rick
1. 12pm on ESPN U: Tulane @ FAU - I have mentioned a few times this year that FAU could put themselves in big trouble if they lose a few more conference games. Well tomorrow, an old friend Kolby King has the chance to do us a solid if him and Tulane could upset the Owls. A home loss to a Tulane team that has really faded in conference play, would put FAU squarely on the bubble (Lunardi has them in "Last Four Byes" currently)
2. 12pm on FOX: Nova @ Providence - Obviously this game is massive for us. A nova win here likely makes them a Q1 for us which would be huge. The better Nova does down the stretch, the better we look for sweeping them.
3. 5:30pm on The CW: Wake Forest @ VTech - This is a sneaky huge game tomorrow. I say sneaky because its been shoved off to the CW Network, since when do they air CBB? Anyway, I have my eyes on this one because VTech has been a personal fav team of mine lately. They're one of those P6 teams you need in the mix because, they aren't good enough to make the tournament and threaten our positioning, but they are good enough to hold serve at home and take some other bubble teams down a notch. This Hokie team is 6-2 at home in ACC play, their only losses were close games against Duke/Miami. Last time they played at home they beat the crap out of rival Virginia (more on them later). Look for the Hokies to beat WF here, and cause the Deacons to essentially ruin all the momentum from beating Duke by losing to Notre Dame and Vtech back to back.
4. 6pm on SECN: Texas A&M @ Georgia - I have no clue why A&M is still showing up on the bubble in a bunch of brackets. They are 15-13, they have lost 5 in a row. Alright, as I type this... I can see why as I go through their schedule. They've beaten Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, Iowa State. That is a lot of good wins. But if they keep losing, the committee cannot justify putting this squad anywhere near a tournament that isn't spelled N-I-T. A loss tomorrow @Georiga, one of the weakest teams in the SEC, would surely put A&M nearly out of the conversation entirely.
5. 8:30pm on SECN: Ole Miss @ Missouri - It is concerning me that Ole Miss is hanging around on the bubble. After a near perfect start to the season, they have lost nearly every big game this year. The supposed signature wins they got in non conference (Memphis and NC State) have both ended up being mediocre wins. Their whole resume essentially rides on the fact that they beat Florida once, but there is not much else here that points to them being a tournament team. Missouri however, has been terrible this year, they are the SEC's DePaul essentially... as they are winless in conference play. However, when these teams first played @Ole Miss, it was a 79-76 final in favor of the Rebels. If Missouri can just nab this win at home, we won't be seeing Ole Miss on the bubble anytime soon unless they go on a magical SEC Tournament run.
Honorable Mention Games:
- Virginia @ Duke (6pm on ESPN): I find it unlikely the committee leaves out Virginia. But if they lose to Duke, lose to Georgia Tech and then lose early in the ACCT? I would like to see it.
- Gonzaga @ St. Mary's (10pm on ESPN): I also find it unlikely the committee will leave out Gonzaga. But if they lose this game and get upset early in the WCC tournament, it is something worth monitoring as of now.
- Michigan St @ #2 Purdue (8pm on FOX): Michigan St, given their talent, is one of the more disappointing teams in the country this year. If they lose this game (which they should), and then lose their last 2 (vs Northwestern & @Indiana) things get ugly in a hurry
- Colorado St vs Wyoming (4pm, untelevised?): The Mountain West conference fascinates me. What is the committee going to do with these teams? CSU is about a 7-8 seed in most brackets right now. But they are 8-8 in conference play. A home loss to a lackluster Wyoming team to put them under .500 in MWC? I feel like this is another sneaky one to keep an eye on.
- New Mexico @ Boise St (8pm on CBSSN): Lil Pitino is squarely on the bubble after an awful loss to Air Force. Boise St could be considered bubbly in their own right, but NM is undoubtedly the more vulnerable team here, so I would prefer they lose this one. Sorry Rick
-Muck up vs Gtown/DePaul - 0% - need to win BET
-19-12 - Win Wed night / Lose Thurs - 0%...we are not in right now and this scenario would add zero additional value while others continue to pass us.
-19-12 - Bye / Lose Thurs - 0% see above
-19-12 - Playing Friday Night - 50-70 %...depends on who we beat to get there, but 10 Q1+2 wins puts you in a good spot.
-19-12 - Playing Saturday Night - 100%...hard to see ANY other bubble team with 11 Q1+2 wins
redfan9999998
Well-known member
If we make Friday night we are in IMO.....we would have beaten (Depaul / Creighton) as 6 seed (21-13) or as 5 seed Seton Hall to get to Friday.(20-13)
Believe that should be enough but its all a guessing game =)
Believe that should be enough but its all a guessing game =)
Thanks for this summary of games to keep an eye on Jack. We're going to see the Bob Marley bio today but have nothing on the agenda tomorrow so will have plenty of time to watch parts of these games. I get the ACC, Big Ten & SEC networks as well so should have fun channel surfing! Lots of interesting, tourney relevant games for sure.
No prob NC, just this once I will let it slide that you aren't seeing the fantastic Dune Part Two tonight at the cinema
This is much more fun than where we normally find ourselves on March 1st. Frustrating to miss so many good opportunities to seal a bid, but just wanted to acknowledge that this is already better than our typical end of season experience
Of course. But the scenario you lay out happens maybe 5% of the time. It's more likely we end up as a nine seed with 5 Q1 wins than what you described. There is literally no reason to think Utah squeaks by both Cal and OSU when they are sub 100 and 150 teams.
It is fun to be able to dream about what we need to do to get in. It is fun to have a reason to root against all these other bubble teams. But with it, comes some anxiety/fear, given we have been in this very spot a couple times before.
2014: St. John's overcame a rough start to Big East play to get right on the bubble at 20-11 (10-8). We met in the 4/5 game against Bryce Cotton led Providence who were also 20-11 (10-8). It was for all intents and purposes... a tournament play in game. Outcome:
2021: We had a surprisingly successful conference season that landed Mike Anderson BE Coach of the Year award. We went into the BET with high hopes of solidifying ourselves as a tournament team. Once again we found ourselves in the 4/5 game, this time against Seton Hall. Outcome:
2024: Now in all likelihood we will be back in that 4/5 game, once again with a shot to announce ourselves as a tournament team. Is third times the charm?
Utah has lost every road conference game except for one...a 1 point victory over UCLA (NET ranked 113). They also have 4 losses to teams ranked NET 100 or worse.
I have not forgotten those seasons, Jack. We are currently in as good a position or better than both 2014 and 2021 at this stage. And this time we have Rick Pitino.
MugCostanza
Well-known member
Just realized Richmond is in many current brackets at the A10 auto-bid since they're in 1st place. That means the two most likely bid stealing conferences - the A10 and AAC - already have bid stealers factored in. If at large locks Dayton and FAU win those conference tournies that's 2 bids added to field instead of stolen away. Don't really recall any situations in the recent past where bids were actually "added" this way
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Nice catch.
At 21-7, a strong enough finish and some wins before an A10 exit, might have Richmond in anyway.
Who’s the current auto bid holder for AAC? Sorry I could definitely look this up later.