Bubble Watch

[MugCostanza]

Nice catch.

At 21-7, a strong enough finish and some wins before an A10 exit, might have Richmond in anyway.

Who’s the current auto bid holder for AAC? Sorry I could definitely look this up later.

Don't think Richmond would really be in the at large conversation. They have one good win (home vs Dayton) and a few questionable losses. Bart gives them 0% to get an at large and TeamRankings 1%

USF is in 1st place in the AAC. They've won 13 in a row but really sputtered out of the gate losing at home to CMU and Maine in November that crushes their at large hopes. They're 94th on KenPom.

 

[Jack Williams]

Interesting, Lunardi said he spent the leap day looking at all the data and realized he had some teams higher/lower due to outdated metrics.

He has us in the list of teams who have a better resume than he originally thought. And even moved us up to the first team out…

 

[paultzman]

I agree

 

[dk423]

I agree

Zach also predicted this, but with two teams being in the play-in.

Definitely a possibility!

 

[austour]

It's super hard to predict, but I'd have higher confidence with a wednesday win and thursday loss as compared to a bye/thurs loss. In the former case, we'd likely move up in NET due to a (hopefully) decent margin win on Wednesday and our Thursday loss would be to a high NET team like Marquette or Creighton, so that wouldn't hurt us. In the other scenario, we'd likely have a loss to seton hall (and no wednesday win) which would be worse for resume and metrics.

And a SH loss would theoretically be a third straight loss to bubble team given where SHU is sitting in most brackets especially if the lose to UConn and Nova.

 

[paultzman]

 

[dk423]

St. John's vs. New Mexico is too obvious

 

[NCJohnnie]

No prob NC, just this once I will let it slide that you aren't seeing the fantastic Dune Part Two tonight at the cinema

I read the book years ago Jack and missed Dune Part One. I thought I'd see it when my son came back on semester break from college but he fooled me and saw it at school. My wife had no interest so I never saw Part One. It's actually playing now at the same place we saw One Love so maybe we'll go without me having seen Part One.

But Bob Marley is my Dune. I'm a music guy and have been to hundreds of concerts over the years, but to this day Marley is the best live performer I've ever seen. Saw him twice, once at the height of his popularity in MSG and once in the Beacon Theater about two years before when he was just starting to get popular in the USA. The guy was a mesmerizing performer. I know way before your time.

Anyway, nice to have a weekend where we're not sweating another Johnnie must win.

 

[lawmanfan]

I read the book years ago Jack and missed Dune Part One. I thought I'd see it when my son came back on semester break from college but he fooled me and saw it at school. My wife had no interest so I never saw Part One. It's actually playing now at the same place we saw One Love so maybe we'll go without me having seen Part One.

But Bob Marley is my Dune. I'm a music guy and have been to hundreds of concerts over the years, but to this day Marley is the best live performer I've ever seen. Saw him twice, once at the height of his popularity in MSG and once in the Beacon Theater about two years before when he was just starting to get popular in the USA. The guy was a mesmerizing performer. I know way before your time.

Anyway, nice to have a weekend where we're not sweating another Johnnie must win.

Tough call. Love Marley, have his entire collection, including bootlegs and.rare cuts.

But also a hardcore SF&F fan. Saw Part 1 recently, it was really, really well done. Much better than the 1986 cartoonish version with Sting and Patrick Stewart. A difficult book to make a movie out of given the over-the-top nature of some aspects of the book. But they did an excellent job. Looking forward to seeing Part 2, hopefully with my grad school son.

 

[lawmanfan]

How many A10 teams do the bracketologists have in? Because I think that's at least a 3 bid league

 

[RedStormRising]

How many A10 teams do the bracketologists have in? Because I think that's at least a 3 bid league

The A10 is crazy it could be a single bid league with just Dayton or depending how the view the conference up to 3/4. How do you separate UR, VCU, and Loyolas resume?

 

[weathermannyc]

I wonder how much credit we will get for playing so many NET Q1 games.

Within the NET Top 100,

14 Butler
13 SJU, Baylor
12 Rutgers, Xavier, Texas, Wisconsin, Kansas, UConn, Purdue
everyone else is at 11 or below.

If we can get to 5 wins in this category, then I would think that would carry a lot of weight.

 

[vegasman2000]

If Nova beats Providence and finishes in top 30 I believe we would have five Q1 wins. If that happens not only is it "win and we are in" but we are probably a 9 seed. I am an outlier, and no "expert" but our resume is a lot stronger that it appears.

the committee has a history of punishing bad schedules and we have a whole league (B12) that has terrible NCSOS but good NET. No one has any idea how this will play out, this is an issue of first impression, and the traditional analysis cannot account for this.

Utah has three winnable games to end the season, will be favored in all three, only Oregon presents a danger. Our W will stay in Q1.

...

 

[vegasman2000]

If Nova beats Providence and finishes in top 30 I believe we would have five Q1 wins. If that happens not only is it "win and we are in" but we are probably a 9 seed. I am an outlier, and no "expert" but our resume is a lot stronger that it appears.

the committee has a history of punishing bad schedules and we have a whole league (B12) that has terrible NCSOS but good NET. No one has any idea how this will play out, this is an issue of first impression, and the traditional analysis cannot account for this.

Utah has three winnable games to end the season, will be favored in all three, only Oregon presents a danger. Our W will stay in Q1.

I am 100% sure this is correct...

Lastly, you can count on a few bubble teams taking an L in the last week that knocks them off the bubble. On NET there are around 30 teams ahead of us or so and 36 spots. Those L's and no spate of surprise conf champs, and we are in right now. Just don't lose to GT or DP.

I am 100% sure this is correct

 

[vegasman2000]

The computers like us more than people apparently.

Bart currently gives us a 93% chance to get in. TeamRankings gives us a 65% to get in. Haslam's current bracketology has us as the 2nd to last team in. Think the computers (especially Bart) are a little too bullish on us but we're right on the line I think.

And they are correct to do so.

 

[Joe Schmoe]

For years I have sworn by Ken Pomeroy's analysis. But the divergence in some of Ken's rankings and Joe Lunardi's (top of this page) is hard to reconcile. For example:

Ken's Ranking Joe's Ranking
SJU 32 69

Virginia 63 39

Syracuse 80 84

C'mon Joe, show some SJU love!

 

[panther2]

I read the book years ago Jack and missed Dune Part One. I thought I'd see it when my son came back on semester break from college but he fooled me and saw it at school. My wife had no interest so I never saw Part One. It's actually playing now at the same place we saw One Love so maybe we'll go without me having seen Part One.

But Bob Marley is my Dune. I'm a music guy and have been to hundreds of concerts over the years, but to this day Marley is the best live performer I've ever seen. Saw him twice, once at the height of his popularity in MSG and once in the Beacon Theater about two years before when he was just starting to get popular in the USA. The guy was a mesmerizing performer. I know way before your time.

Anyway, nice to have a weekend where we're not sweating another Johnnie must win.

Wish I had seen Bob Marley at a venue like the Beacon. I can only imagine the energy a young Marley had. The depth and meaning in his lyrics will never be replicated.

 

[logen]

Wish I had seen Bob Marley at a venue like the Beacon. I can only imagine the energy a young Marley had. The depth and meaning in his lyrics will never be replicated.

I have many, many quotes hung on the walls of my office. Two of my favorites are his:

”True friends are like stars, you can only recognize them when it’s dark around you.”

Not sure of the correct exact quote because I have seen it two ways; on my wall is the wooden plaque -

“You never know how brave you are, until being brave is your only choice”

I have also seen it substituting “strong” for “brave”; either way it rings very true.

 

[redfan9999998]

Bubble watch 3/2

Nova > Providence
Illinois > Wisconsin
Arizona > Oregon
Okie state > Texas
Penn state > Minn
Charlotte >usf
Auburn > miss state
Wyoming > Colorado State
Duke > Virginia
Va tech > wake
Northwestern > Iowa
West Va > t tech
Cincy > k state
Houston > Oklahoma
Purdue > Michigan state
Louisville > cuse
Boise > New Mexico
Mizzou > ole miss
Utah > cal
BYU > tcu
St Mary’s > zags
Bc > Pitt
Nc > nc state

 

[Jack Williams]

I read the book years ago Jack and missed Dune Part One. I thought I'd see it when my son came back on semester break from college but he fooled me and saw it at school. My wife had no interest so I never saw Part One. It's actually playing now at the same place we saw One Love so maybe we'll go without me having seen Part One.

But Bob Marley is my Dune. I'm a music guy and have been to hundreds of concerts over the years, but to this day Marley is the best live performer I've ever seen. Saw him twice, once at the height of his popularity in MSG and once in the Beacon Theater about two years before when he was just starting to get popular in the USA. The guy was a mesmerizing performer. I know way before your time.

Anyway, nice to have a weekend where we're not sweating another Johnnie must win.

Not to go too off topic, but how was the Bob Marley movie? Didn’t get a chance to see it yet