2023-24 Rankings
- Thread starter ADORAZ
- Start date
Crucial context:
This bubble is nuts. We're a 10 seed and also the first of the last five in.
Yeah at this point I do think we're pretty safely in the field, as long as we don't lose to UConn by 40 or something, but unless we upset UConn then there will be some brackets that will have us in the First Four on Selection Sunday. Still thinking we'll get a Bye but that's far from a lock.
As you said, most people vastly overestimate the value of adding one additional win. Personally I think the fact we blew out Hall yesterday to raise our NET (rather than simply picking up another Q2 win by edging them out) is more important. The NET is the best aspect of our resume, didn't get any Quad help from Nova or Utah last night, so need a good effort against UConn tonight.
Too many teams. Not enough spots. Don't think anybody on the bubble is safe. SJU is on the higher end of teams in that group, but not safe - a lot is up to bid thieves and what the committee weighs. If they weigh NET and last 10 games heavily, we should be good. A win over UConn is the only thing that I think would really seal the deal.
Now you guys have me thinking that today is a must win game in order to make the tournament. Ugh!!
Not "must win" but if we lose there is a non-zero chance we wind up on the outside. Not a huge chance, but a chance.
Not every year but this is the year you can agree with those pushing for expansion. It’s Sat morning and it looks like four or five teams that deserve bids are going to be left out.
This year especially since I really do think there's a blob of teams seeded between 8-11 that roughly equally deserve to get in or not. Expand Mon/Tues to be a play-in for those seeds would be a lot of fun.
This is getting a bit 'nit-picky'... but now that i think we avoided Dayton... kinda want one of those 11-seed "byes"... the projected 6-seeds aren't intimidating and we would avoid the Top8 teams which seem Strong in the 2nd round...
regardless... BEAT UCONN!
regardless... BEAT UCONN!
Yep exactly. Generally if on Selection Sunday you're in the field on Bracket Matrix, it's nearly 100% odds you'll make it as long as you're not in one of those last few spots.
The Committee throws a big curveball or two every so often. In 2018 for instance USC was a concensus 10 seed but they missed the Tournament entirely. Then bracketologists tweaked their formulas in response, as they do every year, but the issue is the Committee also changes so it's impossible to fully keep up. Unless if you're at least a projected 9 seed then I don't think it's accurate to say you're a 100% lock. >99% lock as one of the first couple 10 seeds, but not 100%.
Bracket Matrix hasn't updated yet, but I'm thinking we'll be one of the last 10 seeds once all of them update.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ -- finally updated!
For all of the brackets updated, we're in.
Seeds:
11 -- 17
10 -- 15
9 -- 3
For all of the brackets updated, we're in.
Seeds:
11 -- 17
10 -- 15
9 -- 3
Idk, I feel generally the discussion is how weak the bubble is and how many teams are playing themselves off it. This years bubble seams very strong. Probably because many of the major conferences have complete cellar dwellers to help the others pick up a high quantity of wins.
We think it’s strong because we are on it!
Nah, I think this year is different. College basketball in general has been super top heavy and fluffy in the middle. Maybe "stronger" isn't the right word, but I think a lot of these teams are on par.
Another big difference is that the MWC is getting 6 bids. That's put a squeeze as well.
I honestly don't feel great about our resume because it's relied heavily on metrics & not wins. But we played the metrics game really well so I do think we'll be in come Sunday.
Another big difference is that the MWC is getting 6 bids. That's put a squeeze as well.
I honestly don't feel great about our resume because it's relied heavily on metrics & not wins. But we played the metrics game really well so I do think we'll be in come Sunday.
The metrics, winning at the "right" time, and we have a coach who is good for entertainment and storylines.
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Yeah. I'm confident we're in. But I'd be a hypocrite if I were to say, if I was a SHU/Miss St/Prov fan, I wouldn't be annoyed as hell at us being in and them not
I don’t even begin to look at the selection criteria at all, so I have no opinion on any of that; BUT I have always felt (and posted) that if SJU gave the committee reason to select them, they would. Still feel that way, I could be wrong but Pitino remains a BIG story, too big for the committee to ignore. Especially since it appears from you numbers guys that that works also. We shall see……….
To add (on edit), I don’t think Dayton will play, also feel they will want SJU first game other than TruTV, just my opinion
To add (on edit), I don’t think Dayton will play, also feel they will want SJU first game other than TruTV, just my opinion
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