2023-24 Rankings

ADORAZ said:
If we miss the Tournament, which I don't we will, then we'd be the highest ranked NET team ever to miss it (#33 NC State in 2019). NET only started in 2019, but that's still saying a lot and is one reason I don't think they'll keep us out.
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It would be a failure of NCAA if 68 teams get selected, and after all conference tourney AQ's, the 32nd team using their evaluation tool doesn't make cut for the balance
 
ADORAZ said:
If we miss the Tournament, which I don't we will, then we'd be the highest ranked NET team ever to miss it (#33 NC State in 2019). NET only started in 2019, but that's still saying a lot and is one reason I don't think they'll keep us out.
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No matter how you slice it we finished 5th in a power conference and then beat the 4th place team to go to the conference semis. We then played a 5 point game against the reigning national champion who is favored to repeat and a #1 seed. Big east typically gets 5 or 6 bids. We are in.

Not to mention tv networks will freak if the NCAA passes on the country's biggest market
 
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Andrew said:
I was so wrong about this. Never saw this coming. Fingers crossed. We deserve it.
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Also Happy St. Patrick's Day! I agree with Adoraz, Beast, RedstormNC. We live in a world of analytics so why have them if you are not going to use them and we played like a Top 20 team in the BET.

The only problem is parity. One day Florida Atlantic makes the Final Four the next day they can't beat Temple. Again Fingers Crossed.
 
We'd be in more brackets (such as ESPN's) had our BET games counted as neutral since our NET would be even higher then. Absolutely insane we got penalized for playing Hall across the river and the #1 overall projected team who had more fans than us. Maybe yet another talking point for the Johnnies?

We're in 12/22 brackets updated today, so still the majority (54.5%). Liking our chances with everything considered, but things really shouldn't be this close.
 
ADORAZ said:
We'd be in more brackets (such as ESPN's) had our BET games counted as neutral since our NET would be even higher then. Absolutely insane we got penalized for playing Hall across the river and the #1 overall projected team who had more fans than us. Maybe yet another talking point for the Johnnies?

We're in 12/22 brackets updated today, so still the majority (54.5%). Liking our chances with everything considered, but things really shouldn't be this close.
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Forget neutral - they counted as home games!
 
IDRAFT said:
Forget neutral - they counted as home games!
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Yep I could've worded that better, but meant had our games counted as neutral (as opposed to home) we'd be in more brackets now due to a higher NET. Hopefully someone on the Committee runs the numbers to see what it'd be, maybe somewhere in the 20s. They have nothing else to do today anyways with zero bubble games. The longer they look at our resume, the more I like our chances.
 
ADORAZ said:
Yep I could've worded that better, but meant had our games counted as neutral (as opposed to home) we'd be in more brackets now due to a higher NET. Hopefully someone on the Committee runs the numbers to see what it'd be, maybe somewhere in the 20s. They have nothing else to do today anyways with zero bubble games. The longer they look at our resume, the more I like our chances.
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I also don't think these conversations will go "well, this was a home game, not a neutral game". They're human beings talking, they'll look at the numbers but actually talk about how the teams looked, who can do damage in the tournament, etc. The #s will just get you in the conversation. Pitino helps.
 
dk423 said:
I also don't think these conversations will go "well, this was a home game, not a neutral game". They're human beings talking, they'll look at the numbers but actually talk about how the teams looked, who can do damage in the tournament, etc. The #s will just get you in the conversation. Pitino helps.
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You would think so. I think so, and we will know today.
 
mattc said:
I just don’t see only 3 Big East teams getting in. Not smart to piss off arguably the best hoops conference in the country. As I said a few pages ago I think it’s Pitino vs. Izzo in Dayton.
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Of course Mich St. will probaby have a bunch of 7 foot monsters that will inevitably big a match-up problem for us. (I don't know anything about their team, but I assume that's how we will slotted. What's the worst match-up we can possibly give St. John's? Right, let's give them that).
 
ADORAZ said:
So glad we'll finally have our first real data points this week. We already know the AP people have us tied at #28, so let's see what the computers predict. More at the bottom.

Computer Rankings:
Bart Torvik / T-Rank: #53 (11/5/23)
Evan Miya: #49 (11/5/23)
Hasla Metrics: #32 (11/5/23)
ESPN / BPI: ?? - won't load for me past #50, but we're 8th in Big East (10/27/23)
Versus Sports Simulator: #66 (10/27/23)
KenPom / Pomeroy: #60 (10/15/23)
The Resource Nexus: #36 (9/18/23)
AVERAGE: #49 (not including ESPN/BPI's unknown which would take us past #50)

Sources:
barttorvik.com

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.
barttorvik.com
evanmiya.com

EvanMiya CBB Analytics

Advanced college basketball analytics, home of the Bayesian Performance Rating
evanmiya.com evanmiya.com


I'm sure I'm missing some so please feel free to add if you find any, but basically the computers see us as a bubble team (>#49- likely wrong side of the bubble) while the AP people see us as a 7/8 seed (tied at #28 so could go either way). Also worth noting that some who incorporate analytics, such as Lunardi, have us just barely in the field.

Pretty big computer vs. human difference but I assume most computer models aren't accounting for Rick Pitino. Obviously could also be tons of flaws given nearly the entire roster is new, so I personally think we'll finish around what the AP predicts (7/8 seed). I'll say we finish #33 in NET and go dancing as a 9 seed.
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Kudos for predicting that we would finish #33 in NET a couple of days before the season started. One spot off and insanely accurate - hope your current thought that we will make the tournament is as accurate!
 
Per kenpom, SJU finished the season 25th overall. 20th in offense and 61st in defense. Thought it may be helpful to bump this as we look at roster construction for next year.

Frankly, there’s room to improve in both areas but this team was very close. I think scheduling better toward KPI is the most important thing for next year. Also closing out a few close games but that’s often a toss up (think about @creighton).
 
Hardy said:
Per kenpom, SJU finished the season 25th overall. 20th in offense and 61st in defense. Thought it may be helpful to bump this as we look at roster construction for next year.

Frankly, there’s room to improve in both areas but this team was very close. I think scheduling better toward KPI is the most important thing for next year. Also closing out a few close games but that’s often a toss up (think about @creighton).
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KPI is a steaming pile of horse manure that is used only when The Powers That Be want an excuse to rig the game in favor of their chosen conferences
 
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