2023-24 Rankings

Redmen88 said:
I think we will be playing in Dayton. It might be a good thing for this team. They will get a game in the tourney under their belt and won’t be as tight for the Thurs/Fri game. Hopefully we don’t play another Big East team.
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They try to avoid same conference teams and teams you’ve played before. Also not allowed to play an automatic qualifier.
 
Redmen88 said:
I think we will be playing in Dayton. It might be a good thing for this team. They will get a game in the tourney under their belt and won’t be as tight for the Thurs/Fri game. Hopefully we don’t play another Big East team.
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I'm going to do a deep dive through the data tomorrow afternoon, but right now I would have:

10% chance of IN w/o Dayton
70% chance IN, going to Dayton
20% OUT
 
room112 said:
Any idea what the highest rated Kenpom teams have been that haven't got in in the past??
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Going off the last 5 years.

2018 - Penn State (29)
2019 - Clemson (29)
2020 - No Tournament
2021 - Duke (36)
2022 - Oklahoma (30)
2023 - Rutgers (35)

If we don’t make it this year, we might set new precedent.
 
We're in 16/16 brackets updated today on Bracket Matrix- 12/16 as an 11 seed 4/16 as a 10 seed. I'm still extremely confident we're in but Dayton is looking more likely now than it was yesterday.
 
Now in 30/31 brackets updated today. 10/30 of them are a 10 seed and the other 20 are an 11 seed. So basically 33% odds at avoiding Dayton, but each bracket does things a bit differently so it's tough to say. Some of the 11 seeds may also be Bye games based on how they do things (most years some of the 11 seeds are Bye- but with the strong bubble this year that may not be the case).
 
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I think the biggest game of the day is UNC-NC State. If UNC wins that which they should I am pretty sure we make the tournament. I think we actually want FAU and UNC to win their tournaments and Oregon to beat Colorado. That in my opinion is our best chance to avoid Dayton while still making the tournament in a worst case scenario.
 
Andrew said:
I think the biggest game of the day is UNC-NC State. If UNC wins that which they should I am pretty sure we make the tournament. I think we actually want FAU and UNC to win their tournaments and Oregon to beat Colorado. That in my opinion is our best chance to avoid Dayton while still making the tournament in a worst case scenario.
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I agree but to be safe we may want Colorado to beat Oregon because scenarios are:
Oregon wins -> both teams could be in the field, or just Oregon (auto bid)
Colorado wins -> just Colorado is in the field (Oregon isn't on the bubble)

Would be ridiculous having 4 Pac 12 teams since they really deserve only 2 or a maximum of 3, but that's the potential outcome if Oregon wins.
 
Andrew said:
I think the biggest game of the day is UNC-NC State. If UNC wins that which they should I am pretty sure we make the tournament. I think we actually want FAU and UNC to win their tournaments and Oregon to beat Colorado. That in my opinion is our best chance to avoid Dayton while still making the tournament in a worst case scenario.
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Oregon beating Colorado can only be bad for us. In no way can it be good
 
MugCostanza said:
But Oregon winning bumps us down a spot anyway and Colorado could still be ahead of us with a loss tonight\
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I understand your point and I get the risk if Oregon wins but there is also a chance that Oregon takes someone else's spot below us and Colorado losing puts them behind us. I said its contingent on UNC and FAU winning their tournaments.
 
Andrew said:
I understand your point and I get the risk if Oregon wins but there is also a chance that Oregon takes someone else's spot below us and Colorado losing puts them behind us. I said its contingent on UNC and FAU winning their tournaments.
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The issue is the Last Four In will always go to Dayton, so if one spot at the end of the bubble is taken those last 4 Dayton teams could be 10 seeds or even 9 seeds if enough bids are stolen. It's definitely possible we passed Colorado with their loss to offset Oregon stealing a bid, but their NET is #25 so I'm not too optimistic about that.
 
Andrew said:
I understand your point and I get the risk if Oregon wins but there is also a chance that Oregon takes someone else's spot below us and Colorado losing puts them behind us. I said its contingent on UNC and FAU winning their tournaments.
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I was so wrong about this. Never saw this coming. Fingers crossed. We deserve it.
 
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