2023-24 Rankings

Here's something pretty exciting, the #11 most accurate bracketologist (as opposed to #98 Lunardi or #142 Palm) has the Johnnies in the field this morning as an 11 seed.

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Joby’s Nitty Gritty Rankings (JNG)

Joby’s Nitty Gritty Rankings Explained ONCE AGAIN, in 2024 the JNG was the #1 100% Computer-based Metric in predicting the actual NCAA Tournament field IN THE ENTIRE WORLD! Out of the 11…
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I know brackets like ESPN and CBS get all the eyeballs, and those have been more pessimistic towards the Johnnies, but the numbers throughout the years have shown they are not the most accurate. Granted this bracket seems to be computer-based, but it's still a great sign that a highly accurate bracket has us in the field.
 
Certainly don't agree with this one, it's overly reliant on statistics and ranks #163/174 in terms of accuracy, but they have us as the first 8 seed which is pretty nuts:


As for other updated brackets from today- a lot have us as one of the last teams in or first couple teams out.

One game I'll keep an eye on tonight is Stanford @ Utah. Stanford has really struggled lately losing 6/7, and Utah is favored by 8.5. With a large enough win (at least double digits), Utah could move up 3+ NET spots and make that a Q1 win for us again.
 
ADORAZ said:
Certainly don't agree with this one, it's overly reliant on statistics and ranks #163/174 in terms of accuracy, but they have us as the first 8 seed which is pretty nuts:


As for other updated brackets from today- a lot have us as one of the last teams in or first couple teams out.

One game I'll keep an eye on tonight is Stanford @ Utah. Stanford has really struggled lately losing 6/7, and Utah is favored by 8.5. With a large enough win (at least double digits), Utah could move up 3+ NET spots and make that a Q1 win for us again.
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That is nuts but if Kenpom has us 31, I guess its not totally random since that would have us at 32.
 
Lunardi has us as the 4th team out, but his is really an outlier and the worst I've seen from any update today.

D Ratings is one of the best out there (#8/174) and they have us as the final team in.

Bracketology 2024 - NCAA Tournament / NIT Projections

Our Bracketology for 2024! We list projections for all of NCAA Basketball tournament seeds as well as the NIT tournament in March.
www.dratings.com www.dratings.com

I still think if we finish 3-1 then we're in. Wouldn't be a 100% lock, but greater than 50% IMO (as long as we don't squeak by DePaul/Georgetown and tank our NET, which shouldn't happen given how terrible they've been).
 
Utah has jumped from #53 to #50, giving us another Quad 1 win!

Quad 1: 4-9
Quad 2: 5-2
Quad 3: 3-1
Quad 4: 5-0

Hopefully Nova can move up 2 spots to get our Quad 1 record to 5-9. That'd look so much better than 3-9 (as it was yesterday).
 
otis said:
can someone please explain why our beloved Johnnies NET ranking did not improve when StJ’s win over Utah improved to a Q1 victory.
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Quad buckets don't really matter for NET and Utah only moved up a few NET spots. Basically the NCAA Selection Committee creates a (secret) list of seed lines which is a combination of NET (analytics/margins), Quad records (whether you actually win and how good the opponent is), and to a lesser extent some other stuff. The bracketologists try to replicate the seed lines by combining NET with Quad records.

Utah's win wouldn't help our NET by more than a fraction of a point, but it will help our Quad records and thus our position in the brackets.
 
Update on efficiency rankings: Offense is 33 (KenPom) or 28 (Torvik). Defense is 36 (KenPom) or 23 (Torvik). They've come a long way since the beginning of confrence play when the defense was ranked 100+. Over this 3-game winning streak they're 7th in the country in overall efficiency per torvik (I can't sort that way on KP).

One other cool stat, over this 3 game streak, Torvik has SJU at first in the country in wins above bubble at 1.4. WAB is how they performed as compared to an average bubble team--similarly to WAR for a bball player. The next highest teams are south carolina and houston at 1.1, so it's not even close.

It's clear this team has played the last few games in a higher gear, if they keep it up could be a special season.
 
ADORAZ said:
Quad buckets don't really matter for NET and Utah only moved up a few NET spots. Basically the NCAA Selection Committee creates a (secret) list of seed lines which is a combination of NET (analytics/margins), Quad records (whether you actually win and how good the opponent is), and to a lesser extent some other stuff. The bracketologists try to replicate the seed lines by combining NET with Quad records.

Utah's win wouldn't help our NET by more than a fraction of a point, but it will help our Quad records and thus our position in the brackets.
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This...and was more than offset by Michigan getting crushed by Rutgers.
 
What an enigma Michigan was this year... they looked sooooo good that game.... CRUSHED their first two opponents (who are both 2nd in their respective leagues)... and then they fell off right after our game.

Maybe Rick waits till game 3 next year to schedule the Big Boys
 
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