2023-24 Rankings
- Thread starter ADORAZ
- Start date
yes, we are safely in everyone's brackets right...generally in the 8-9 game except for a few outliers. However, that position is more fragile than meets the eye. Bracketology is about resume building. The NET (good or bad) is the standardized metric used to judge wins, losses and everything else. We are in right now because we are 7-7 in Q1+2 games. There are only a handful of teams (maybe a dozen or so) who have more than 7 Q1+2 wins in the country. So far so good, right? Not so fast, my friends. We still have 4 games against DePaul or Georgetown and a bye week on the schedule. That is 5 schedule slots where we don't get a chance to build on our resume. The best we can do is to avoid a really bad loss.
Think of it this way. Some HS kids mature quicker than others. One 16 year old may be 80% of his physical max while another 16 year old may be 50% of his physical max. You can't take the 16 year old versions, extrapolate and project to full potential. Well, our front loaded schedule has allowed us to build or mature our resume faster than other schools. We may be ahead right now, but they have more opportunities remaining. I do think that 11-9 in conference gets us in as long as Utah doesn't crash and burn. (They have a big week ahead) But, we are squarely on the bubble right now and need 3 more quality (not DeP or GT) wins to feel confident.
Side note: I hope the committee sees right through the Big12 facade of beating the crap out of bad teams to inflate NET rankings. That is the exact opposite of what this system was intended for. You do not deserve to get in if you are 8-12 in conference just because you slaughtered a half dozen or more sub 200 ranked teams before Christmas.
Think of it this way. Some HS kids mature quicker than others. One 16 year old may be 80% of his physical max while another 16 year old may be 50% of his physical max. You can't take the 16 year old versions, extrapolate and project to full potential. Well, our front loaded schedule has allowed us to build or mature our resume faster than other schools. We may be ahead right now, but they have more opportunities remaining. I do think that 11-9 in conference gets us in as long as Utah doesn't crash and burn. (They have a big week ahead) But, we are squarely on the bubble right now and need 3 more quality (not DeP or GT) wins to feel confident.
Side note: I hope the committee sees right through the Big12 facade of beating the crap out of bad teams to inflate NET rankings. That is the exact opposite of what this system was intended for. You do not deserve to get in if you are 8-12 in conference just because you slaughtered a half dozen or more sub 200 ranked teams before Christmas.
RedStormRising
Well-known member
Here's an unpopular opinion. Bracketology or any college basketball tournament prognosticator is worthless. Joe Lunardi over his career has averaged 95% of the field correct. Solid A, sounds great right. Every year there are oh about 8 bubble teams for 4 spaces. If you pick randomly pick names out of a hat you'll get 4 of them right on average. 64/68 = 94.11%. JL is adding oh about .9% of value. I am confident anyone on this board could produce a bracket within spitting distance of the professionals.
I just ignore the kenpom/nets/quad 1, 2, 3, 4s and just focus on solo 5th place in the BE or better. That's the ticket to the tournament!
MugCostanza
Well-known member
True. Lunardi is barely a top 100 bracketologist. Just because he's on ESPN doesn't mean he's good - http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html
As you said. It's pretty cut and dry for us at the point. 12 regular season wins and we have nothing to worry about. 11 might be safe but may need to pick up a win in the BET to be comfortable. 10 wins and we definitely need at least one and maybe two BET wins to get in
Finish sixth in the big east and get de Paul in round one and a game with probably Marquette or Creighton in round two and winning that game a matchup with the other in round three. Not impossible to add on three wins.
SJUWillRockNYC
Well-known member
To close to call with 11 wins, I'm thinking 12 wins and we're in.
11 wins means we gotta get 1 in the B.E Tournament.
Its a reasonable position to take considering that our two wins against Nova don't look nearly as good as we thought they would. But, I will go with the notion that 10 Q1+2 wins (with a chance for 11 if West Virginia continues to play well) is going to overwhelm a lot of bubble resumes. Bubble teams just don't accumulate numbers like that.
7-8 in quad 1/2 is still good for a bubble team. NET is 43, Kenpom is 41. Probably a 9 seed today, and still ahead of the other big east teams outside the top 3.
Would’ve helped things if the DePaul and georgetown games weren’t all backloaded on the schedule. This team has played a gauntlet in conference with no let up. Either way, need to win those 4 and 2 others.
Would’ve helped things if the DePaul and georgetown games weren’t all backloaded on the schedule. This team has played a gauntlet in conference with no let up. Either way, need to win those 4 and 2 others.
they'll get it done. Too Veteran a group not to realize the severity of their predicament.
They’ll get it done if they realize that giving maximum effort on defense for 40 minutes is just as important as scoring.
I believe the effort given yesterday will get us a W on most days against most teams. It doesn't have to be perfect. It just has to be consistently good. That is what is so frustrating, as there have been many days where we didn't even get that.
We will win the games we need to in order to Dance if we can cut down on our unforced turnovers, hit a few 3’s (especially at the start of games), commit to winning with rebounding and defense, and stay together as a team with one purpose, playing our way into the tourney.
AP poll 2/5/24:
#1 UConn (-)
#7 Marquette (+2)
#19 Creighton (-6)
Another week where the Johnnies could've been ranked with a 2-0 week, but instead the opposite happened. At this point it's pretty unlikely we'll be ranked at all this season, which is disappointing given we had plenty of chances and were receiving extra votes since the preseason (boosted by Pitino's hiring). We do play a top 10 Marquette team on Saturday, so that's at least another opportunity to get a massive win.
Regardless of the AP poll my preseason expectations were just to make the Tournament, and as of now Bracket Matrix and big sites like ESPN and CBS have the Johnnies in the field (both as a 10 seed). That's honestly pretty amazing since we had an iffy OOC and just lost 5/6 Big East games but are still in it. Again, proving how important margins and who you beat / lose to play into this.
Despite being in the field now, going forward there won't be much room at all for error. Have to start winning some of those 50-50 games. Can't have let down games with lackluster effort, especially against DePaul (extremely unlikely) or Georgetown (a possibility). I'm glad the next game is home vs. #315 DePaul as that's almost a guaranteed win. Just like I was happy the team at least kept most of the losses close, the expectation against DePaul has to be to win that by a wide margin to keep NET in the low to mid 40s. One game at a time, do that and we'll remain in the field.
#1 UConn (-)
#7 Marquette (+2)
#19 Creighton (-6)
Another week where the Johnnies could've been ranked with a 2-0 week, but instead the opposite happened. At this point it's pretty unlikely we'll be ranked at all this season, which is disappointing given we had plenty of chances and were receiving extra votes since the preseason (boosted by Pitino's hiring). We do play a top 10 Marquette team on Saturday, so that's at least another opportunity to get a massive win.
Regardless of the AP poll my preseason expectations were just to make the Tournament, and as of now Bracket Matrix and big sites like ESPN and CBS have the Johnnies in the field (both as a 10 seed). That's honestly pretty amazing since we had an iffy OOC and just lost 5/6 Big East games but are still in it. Again, proving how important margins and who you beat / lose to play into this.
Despite being in the field now, going forward there won't be much room at all for error. Have to start winning some of those 50-50 games. Can't have let down games with lackluster effort, especially against DePaul (extremely unlikely) or Georgetown (a possibility). I'm glad the next game is home vs. #315 DePaul as that's almost a guaranteed win. Just like I was happy the team at least kept most of the losses close, the expectation against DePaul has to be to win that by a wide margin to keep NET in the low to mid 40s. One game at a time, do that and we'll remain in the field.
Yeah of course... which is exactly what my post said: we have no shot at the AP anymore so I just hope to make the Tournament. Regardless this is the first time St. John's is out of AP contention, so I posted about it as I do every week. A few weeks ago we received a lot of votes and now we have no shot and are back on the bubble, just how it is. I'll continue following it though and posting for anyone interested as it still has some relevance for both St. John's and the Big East, such as playing #7 Marquette this week.
As long as we make the Tournament I'd still consider it a successful year even if we don't live up the regular season expectations many had. Making the Tournament has always been the #1 goal and we're very much in contention.
Look, I know you are into this and really, I should have caveated my reply; I really was just kidding. I am not sure what emoji applies, but my bad and I apologize.
Lol no worries, everyone has topics they're interested in and I have almost zero interest in topics many others like (such as high school recruiting). Actually my first post on the site in a about a week, so it's a bit longer giving my thoughts on the Xavier/UConn losses, but regardless I still enjoy the AP rankings even when we're a terrible team (like the CMA years). Would've been nice to get that ranking this year and secure a solid seed, but now just hoping we can stop this slide and make the Tournament. Hope we beat DePaul by 20+ tomorrow so here and X have something positive to talk about lol.