Beat the spread
2023-24 Rankings
- Thread starter ADORAZ
- Start date
Moving up three spots after exceeding the spread vs De Paul makes the two games vs Georgetown and De Paul game coming up important in exceeding the spread.
With where we are with NET and KENPOM now, the wins are more important at this point against depaul and georgetown. Well maybe the home game vs georgetown is important to win by more than 10 but not necessarily cover the spread. We then must add a couple more from the other games. We need to keep adding to the win column.
A sobering thought that is helping with the mental anguish that comes with SJU fandom... if we can't win 2 of the 5 vs (Hall/Prov/Butler/Marq/Creighton) - we definitely don't deserve to be in the Dance, nor would we.
I certainly hope if that comes to fruition- that this team doesn't turn down an NIT invite... could prove valuable for Sim/Brady/Luis/Zuby to keep playing
I certainly hope if that comes to fruition- that this team doesn't turn down an NIT invite... could prove valuable for Sim/Brady/Luis/Zuby to keep playing
*Disclaimer: I am not saying this particularly about any of our players*
I wonder if the NIT and all of these other non-NCAA Tournament are going to be more like the college football bowl season. Guys sitting out to not risk injury for the transfer portal, draft, etc.
Redenbacher
Well-known member
For what it's worth, Lunardi now has us as First Four Out. Xavier, Nova and Providence are also out. Seton Hall and Butler are in.
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How the heck would Wash St not fall out with a loss? Oregon St is 11-11, 3-8 and KenPom 163, NET 168. Not much different than Georgetown.
We're 5-2 so far against the other Big East teams he has on the bubble.
That's keeping us around, for now.
With a month left in the season, things are starting to come more into focus. All teams except for Marquette have 8 regular season games left and the BET. UCONN, Marquette and Creighton(barring an absolute collapse) will be heading to the NCAA tournament. DePaul and Georgetown will be putting the balls away after the BET.
That leaves six teams to fight it out for what looks like 2 bids (at most 3). If we want to make it we have to win more games than the other five. The teams each of these six win and lose against matters as well.
It starts Saturday and its not going to be easy but at least we have a shot.
That leaves six teams to fight it out for what looks like 2 bids (at most 3). If we want to make it we have to win more games than the other five. The teams each of these six win and lose against matters as well.
It starts Saturday and its not going to be easy but at least we have a shot.
SH and Butler games are huge. We don’t have their ceilings.
Looking at Bracket Matrix, St. John's is currently an 11 seed and in 72/96 brackets. 90/96 of the brackets have updated since Sunday 2/4 (after the UConn game). I think if the Tournament were held today we'd be in the First Four, which most here wouldn't be happy about (myself included- unless we won that game).
A pretty big concern is that St. John's only has two wins over teams currently projected in the field - 8 seed Utah and 11 seed Butler. This is something the NCAA looks at, especially for bubble teams, and @ Marquette / Vs. Creighton are the only teams remaining that will 100% be in the field. They're also ranked of course and tomorrow will be our most challenging remaining game.
I'm not saying Marquette or even Creighton are must win games, but if we don't win either then we'd probably need to go 5-1 plus a BET win to dance. I know there's a lot of hyperbole in sports regarding importance of individual games, but win tomorrow and our chances will go up dramatically. It'd be the best win on our resume by a mile, and it's also easily the biggest opportunity remaining. We only lost to them by one last time, hope we can shock everyone and finally get that signature win.
A pretty big concern is that St. John's only has two wins over teams currently projected in the field - 8 seed Utah and 11 seed Butler. This is something the NCAA looks at, especially for bubble teams, and @ Marquette / Vs. Creighton are the only teams remaining that will 100% be in the field. They're also ranked of course and tomorrow will be our most challenging remaining game.
I'm not saying Marquette or even Creighton are must win games, but if we don't win either then we'd probably need to go 5-1 plus a BET win to dance. I know there's a lot of hyperbole in sports regarding importance of individual games, but win tomorrow and our chances will go up dramatically. It'd be the best win on our resume by a mile, and it's also easily the biggest opportunity remaining. We only lost to them by one last time, hope we can shock everyone and finally get that signature win.
AP poll 2/12/24:
#1 UConn (-)
#4 Marquette (+3)
#17 Creighton (+2)
One of the best weeks for the Big East in the AP this year, but another disappointing week for the Johnnies. As of today I think we'd be one of the first teams out of the Tournament, but I'll keep my preseason prediction/expectation of making it. Lose tomorrow though and that'd change, really a must win because I don't think this team is capable of winning 5-6 in a row (or going 5-1 and then winning first game of BET).
#1 UConn (-)
#4 Marquette (+3)
#17 Creighton (+2)
One of the best weeks for the Big East in the AP this year, but another disappointing week for the Johnnies. As of today I think we'd be one of the first teams out of the Tournament, but I'll keep my preseason prediction/expectation of making it. Lose tomorrow though and that'd change, really a must win because I don't think this team is capable of winning 5-6 in a row (or going 5-1 and then winning first game of BET).
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5-1 with the loss to Butler, would be preferred, as opposed to Creighton. Creighton would be the better win, and the loss to Butler at Hinkle won't kill you (especially since we've already beaten them).
It is actually impressive our numbers/metrics are as good as they are... the ole "Eye test" - we def don't deserve to be dancing.
Only thing we can do is go 6-0.
I hear you but I still think 5-1 and getting to Friday night of BET would get us in. If I only felt confident in our chances of doing either one...