2023-24 Rankings

logen said:
I understand you are into this aspect, which is cool, to each his own. But the fact that the losses were close doesn’t matter one bit to me; the fact we beat ourselves by not playing hard for 40 minutes does. I am into the journey and think about Selection Sunday on Selection Sunday or as you get down to the short hairs to Selection Sunday.
And again, I mean no disrespect, I would not have commented except for the “overblown” aspect you presented originally, there is much, much more to the game to me than the mathematical affect of the margin of victory based on a subjective ranking of an opponent; we are just discussing different strokes…………
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I get what you're saying, and it's a long season so it makes sense not to think about Selection Sunday yet, but the mathematical aspect is what determines our placement on Selection Sunday. Who we beat/lose to and by how much is a lot more important than our record. I don't consider simply losing (or winning) in college basketball to be 100% losing/winning, margins play a major role (for better or for worse). If we lost those 3 games in blowouts we would've been on the bubble or out of the field. Instead we're very safely in for now.

As far as other sports are concerned (such as MLB), I really dislike losing by a run. I'd rather see my team get blown out, because losing by one sucks and you think about scenarios that could've changed the outcome. It's weird adjusting, and even a few years ago math didn't really matter in college basketball (when it used RPI), but it does matter these days. For this season St. John's is benefitting from NET/math, in both wins and losses, so it's a great situation.
 
ADORAZ said:
I get what you're saying, and it's a long season so it makes sense not to think about Selection Sunday yet, but the mathematical aspect is what determines our placement on Selection Sunday. Who we beat/lose to and by how much is a lot more important than our record. I don't consider simply losing (or winning) in college basketball to be 100% losing/winning, margins play a major role (for better or for worse). If we lost those 3 games in blowouts we would've been on the bubble or out of the field. Instead we're very safely in for now.

As far as other sports are concerned (such as MLB), I really dislike losing by a run. I'd rather see my team get blown out, because losing by one sucks and you think about scenarios that could've changed the outcome. It's weird adjusting, and even a few years ago math didn't really matter in college basketball (when it used RPI), but it does matter these days. For this season St. John's is benefitting from NET/math, in both wins and losses, so it's a great situation.
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I understand the process very well, it was your dismissal of reactions to the ACTUAL results of the games as “overblown” that was/is my only point.
 
logen said:
I understand the process very well, it was your dismissal of reactions to the ACTUAL results of the games as “overblown” that was/is my only point.
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Ok that's where we differ, because the actual results do include margins and level of opponent, but we'll agree to disagree. Regardless of how you felt about that 3 game stretch, I think everyone can agree the Nova game was awesome and put the losses into our rearview mirror. I'm just thinking about X and then the huge UConn game right now, could be an all time great one.
 
NET jumps 5 spots to #36 after the 20 point win over (now) #40 Nova. Q2 win with an outside shot at becoming Q1 if Nova finishes the season top 30.

Q1: 2-5
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 2-1
Q4: 4-0

7 Q1/Q2 wins is huge at this point. Going to be a great week for bracket updates.
 
ADORAZ said:
NET jumps 5 spots to #36 after the 20 point win over (now) #40 Nova. Q2 win with an outside shot at becoming Q1 if Nova finishes the season top 30.

Q1: 2-5
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 2-1
Q4: 4-0

7 Q1/Q2 wins is huge at this point. Going to be a great week for bracket updates.
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I know it was early in the season but that Michigan loss will likely cost a seed line in March
 
As I awake up this morning I decided to look ahead to the rest of the season as the goal can only be the NCAA tournament.

Current Rankings

NET 36
Pomeroy 31
BPI 31

Record
13-7(5-4) Fifth in the Big East

The remaining games

Likely Quad 1
Creighton - Home
UCONN - Home
Marquette - Road
Providence - Road
Xavier - Road
Butler - Road

Likely Quad 2
Seton Hall - Home

Likely Quad 3/Quad 4
Georgetown - Away

Likely Quad 4
Georgetown - Home
DePaul - Home
DePaul Away

With the hope 🤞we win the bottom 4, where we end the season (Getting in the tournament/play in game and seeding will be determined by 7 games and perhaps the BET). I am not making any predictions and it won't be easy but I like our chances.
 
I strongly feel margins of wins and losses is a serious flaw in the NCAA tournament formula as to me they should not matter. And I’m basically a journey guy myself. What I will say, though, is the close losses and big wins this team has compiled is helping them for the tournament. Second time I’m writing this but close is not just horseshoes and hand grenades, it’s also NCAA formula. Because of this I have felt for some time this team
Is in better shape than many think, and do not “need” as many wins as gets bandied about. Thing is I hope they win enough that my theory is unprovable.

I’m very focused on the conference standings which are straightforward wins and losses. I want to skip Wednesday as an easier path to Friday (as a minimum.)

I know thinking about the NCAAs is how most look at a season, but making serious noise in the Big East Tournament, at MSG, would be a huge boost to the program. And a lot of fun!
 
IDRAFT said:
I strongly feel margins of wins and losses is a serious flaw in the NCAA tournament formula as to me they should not matter. And I’m basically a journey guy myself. What I will say, though, is the close losses and big wins this team has compiled is helping them for the tournament. Second time I’m writing this but close is not just horseshoes and hand grenades, it’s also NCAA formula. Because of this I have felt for some time this team
Is in better shape than many think, and do not “need” as many wins as gets bandied about. Thing is I hope they win enough that my theory is unprovable.

I’m very focused on the conference standings which are straightforward wins and losses. I want to skip Wednesday as an easier path to Friday (as a minimum.)

I know thinking about the NCAAs is how most look at a season, but making serious noise in the Big East Tournament, at MSG, would be a huge boost to the program. And a lot of fun!
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God, imagine playing the prime Friday night game or, gulp, the championship game? It would be bananas at this point. I wouldn’t be able to sit.
 
Just to re-emphasize how important it is to keep losses close and make wins blowouts, there's a website (teamrankings.com) that still uses the old RPI formula. This only factored in whether teams won / lost, as well as the level of opponents. With RPI we're ranked #44, however the website incorrectly lists our Hofstra game as Neutral, so our RPI would actually be close to #50, as opposed to our NET of #36.

If RPI were still being used we'd be a bubble team rather than the likely 7 seed that many should place us over the next week. There are really two games being played, the first winning/losing and the second the margins. I think it's totally reasonable to not like the NCAA's switch to NET. Personally I'm in favor of it for this year at least because it greatly benefits our team, and while the losses sucked I didn't mind them too much given how close they were. Pitino pays close attention to detail and never takes a play off, while under prior coaches the NET was frustrating as it often worked against us. Remarkable how much this program as a whole has adjusted to the changing NCAA landscape over the past year.
 
Andrew said:
As I awake up this morning I decided to look ahead to the rest of the season as the goal can only be the NCAA tournament.

Current Rankings

NET 36
Pomeroy 31
BPI 31

Record
13-7(5-4) Fifth in the Big East

The remaining games

Likely Quad 1
Creighton - Home
UCONN - Home
Marquette - Road
Providence - Road
Xavier - Road
Butler - Road

Likely Quad 2
Seton Hall - Home

Likely Quad 3/Quad 4
Georgetown - Away

Likely Quad 4
Georgetown - Home
DePaul - Home
DePaul Away

With the hope 🤞we win the bottom 4, where we end the season (Getting in the tournament/play in game and seeding will be determined by 7 games and perhaps the BET). I am not making any predictions and it won't be easy but I like our chances.
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go 3-4 in the above top 7 games plus sweep bottom 4, we’ll be in same or better net as today.
2-5 plus 4-0 might put us back on bubble.
 
Goes to show how solid this season has been, if we lose
away at Georgetown, would be our worst loss of the season.
 
ADORAZ said:
Just to re-emphasize how important it is to keep losses close and make wins blowouts, there's a website (teamrankings.com) that still uses the old RPI formula. This only factored in whether teams won / lost, as well as the level of opponents. With RPI we're ranked #44, however the website incorrectly lists our Hofstra game as Neutral, so our RPI would actually be close to #50, as opposed to our NET of #36.

If RPI were still being used we'd be a bubble team rather than the likely 7 seed that many should place us over the next week. There are really two games being played, the first winning/losing and the second the margins. I think it's totally reasonable to not like the NCAA's switch to NET. Personally I'm in favor of it for this year at least because it greatly benefits our team, and while the losses sucked I didn't mind them too much given how close they were. Pitino pays close attention to detail and never takes a play off, while under prior coaches the NET was frustrating as it often worked against us. Remarkable how much this program as a whole has adjusted to the changing NCAA landscape over the past year.
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Why are you spending time analyzing an old formula that is no longer part of the current criteria? As long as we don't lose to Georgetown/Depaul we are safely in the tournament. We're not even a bubble team at the moment.
 
mattc said:
Why are you spending time analyzing an old formula that is no longer part of the current criteria? As long as we don't lose to Georgetown/Depaul we are safely in the tournament. We're not even a bubble team at the moment.
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Odd question, spent like 5 minutes because I was curious and like analytics. Analytics was my MBA major at St. John's and also a large part of what I analyze to run my business. This was a way to show how important margins are, which the team has been excellent at this year. Why are you spending time asking me? This is a rankings thread, post elsewhere if you're not interested.
 
Hardy said:
I think a 7 or 8 is right as of today. Would be a solid 7 with win at X, probably still an 8 with a loss.
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That's a big difference, IMO.

Heck, I'd rather be a 10 seed, than an 8 or a 9.

Yeah, I know, 16s beat 1s these days, and one #1 usually (not always) falls sometime the first weekend, but I still wouldn't want to take that chance.
 
I'm a big believer in one game at a time, but it's Friday morning, start of the weekend and I'll allow my self a little longer term dreaming. Seems to me if we are fortunate/tough enough to knock off Xavier on the road we can start to look at 4th place in Big East and potential 5/6 seed as a real possibility, especially since it will be halfway through league play and we still have 4 games against two worst teams.
 
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