Welcome back Julian!

[SJU14]

I wonder what the statistics and research says for kids that are projected to be 2nd rounders and come back to school. Do they actually improve their draft position or stay the same/move down? I know we have seen kids come back and shoot up the draft board and kids that do the opposite, but I would like to see what the chances of either are. 

if you get a second round grade and have a 20% chance of improving your stock, why come back? 

 

[JohnnyFan]

Just for context..... 

In the 2020 NBA Draft, Isaiah Joe (Arkansas) was selected 49th overall by the 76ers (this is the 2nd round's 19th pick).  Joe signed a contract that include 2.4 million in guaranteed money.  Players selected any lower than this ultimately signed contracts with much less guaranteed money (800K - 900K).    

Bottom line, a kid being told he may be picked early in the 2nd round, is probably not leaving that money on the table.  If you're being told late 2nd round, returning to college and trying to move up, could be a sound choice. 


 

Second round picks are not guaranteed anything send there is no scale like the first round, which is guaranteed. All second round picks are guaranteed is NBA minimum wage (still a lot at $800k+) if they sign. Isaiah Joe with the 49 pick made more than the 3rd overall pick of the second round.  A lot get stuck overseas or on two way contracts.

You are correct that teams do not have to follow a minimum salary scale after the 1st round, but I think you have to look at the going rate. Despite no minimum guidelines, kids like Isaiah Joe are getting in the area of $2.4 million guaranteed.  By the way, this is not more than the 3rd pick.  The 3rd overall pick in the 2020 draft (Lamelo Ball) signed a contract with $16 million guaranteed. 

Here is a great site to take a look at player contracts:  [URL]https://www.spotrac.com[/URL]

 

[Knockout-Ned]

Not more then the overall 3rd pick but more than the 3rd pick of the second round.

 

[room112]

I wonder what the statistics and research says for kids that are projected to be 2nd rounders and come back to school. Do they actually improve their draft position or stay the same/move down? I know we have seen kids come back and shoot up the draft board and kids that do the opposite, but I would like to see what the chances of either are. 

if you get a second round grade and have a 20% chance of improving your stock, why come back? 

The way I see it, the NBA is all about potential, and you could see the kids potential from day one on the college campus. Continuing to play more college games likely does not help most. Sure it can help in some cases obviously. There are certain standout performances that can land you on an NBA radar. Think back to Nova's Divincenzo who really wasn't on an NBA radar but played himself on due to performance. 

 

[NCJohnnie]

Room112 wrote:
The way I see it, the NBA is all about potential, and you could see the kids potential from day one on the college campus. Continuing to play more college games likely does not help most. Sure it can help in some cases obviously. There are certain standout performances that can land you on an NBA radar. Think back to Nova's Divincenzo who really wasn't on an NBA radar but played himself on due to performance. 

The other shining example I can think of is Mo Harkless' game against Duke on national TV. That game got him into being a mid first round pick and he has played it into a long NBA career. 

 

[room112]

Room112 wrote:
The way I see it, the NBA is all about potential, and you could see the kids potential from day one on the college campus. Continuing to play more college games likely does not help most. Sure it can help in some cases obviously. There are certain standout performances that can land you on an NBA radar. Think back to Nova's Divincenzo who really wasn't on an NBA radar but played himself on due to performance. 

The other shining example I can think of is Mo Harkless' game against Duke on national TV. That game got him into being a mid first round pick and he has played it into a long NBA career. 

And that's just the thing. You can get a lot more exposure to the NBA from playing in college, than trying to work your way in through the G League or from overseas. 

 

[RedStormNC]

Where is this speculation about Julian getting drafted even coming from? He has not once been listed on any mock drafts, nor has he even been listed on the NBADraft.net Top 100 board. To me it remains to be seen if he will even be offered an invite to the draft combine, which seems doubtful. 

This is not wishful thinking on my part, I'm just presenting facts. Could a random team take him late in the 2nd round? Of course. But from everything I've seen and read that seems like an absolute long shot. And Julian does not seem like the type of kid to make a decision based on a long shot. 

I'm not saying he is guaranteed to improve his draft stock by returning. But I'm still not convinced he's leaving. 

To your question on where speculation is coming from..... Zach B. tweeted this yesterday.  Not sure who the advisory committee is, but seems potentially more credible that mock draft boards created by people not directly involved.

@NYPost_Brazille
May 10
Was told Justin received a high-to-mid second round draft grade from the advisory committee and Julian was given a mid-to-low second round draft grade. #sjubb

 

[Notanalum]

FWIW Draft express/ESPN has Justin at 66, Julian 89 and Alvarado 92. 

Julian comes back and is pre season player of the year/improves his draft stock by scoring off the dribble/creating for himself 

or

he plays overseas and gets paid. 

it’s that simple IMO and it’s his decision. We sit back and wait/wish him luck. He’s a great kid from a great legacy family 

 

[PharmDJohnnie11]

As someone who follows the NBA and NBA draft very closely I have not seen Julian mentioned in any of the many mock drafts I’ve read over the past few weeks. 

At this point Julian is far from a finished product. He can shoot it, but what else does he do at an NBA level? He sure as hell can’t guard anyone, and he isn’t really a finisher around the rim. 

Will coming back for another year here help him increase his stock? Maybe. But even then I don’t really see him sticking in the NBA. So maybe cashing out now is his best option if he knows he can get some guaranteed money. 

 

[room112]

Where is this speculation about Julian getting drafted even coming from? He has not once been listed on any mock drafts, nor has he even been listed on the NBADraft.net Top 100 board. To me it remains to be seen if he will even be offered an invite to the draft combine, which seems doubtful. 

This is not wishful thinking on my part, I'm just presenting facts. Could a random team take him late in the 2nd round? Of course. But from everything I've seen and read that seems like an absolute long shot. And Julian does not seem like the type of kid to make a decision based on a long shot. 

I'm not saying he is guaranteed to improve his draft stock by returning. But I'm still not convinced he's leaving. 

To your question on where speculation is coming from..... Zach B. tweeted this yesterday.  Not sure who the advisory committee is, but seems potentially more credible that mock draft boards created by people not directly involved.

@NYPost_Brazille
May 10
Was told Justin received a high-to-mid second round draft grade from the advisory committee and Julian was given a mid-to-low second round draft grade. #sjubb

Thanks. I guess I don't know what that means. Is that his best case scenario? I don't think that's stating he's likely to get drafted in that range. I think they are saying if he gets drafted at all, it will be in that range. 

 

[lawmanfan]

A few thoughts:

Maybe the players and their families can do enough arithmetic to figure out that if 100+ guys declare for the NBA draft then about 40 of them (more after you factor in the Euros) are not going to get drafted.

And maybe some of them are fine with that. If they have reached a comfort level that another year in college is not going to move the needle enough on their NBA chances, and if they are ready to go out and get a job somewhere playing basketball, then the NBA draft is basically a freebie.  If you get drafted, or get drafted high enough, great. If not, it cost you nothing to go thru the process, get some info and experience and maybe make some contacts - and then you can move on with moving on. 

Not saying that applies to Julian, but it may be a thought process for the many fringe draftees who are still in the draft with questionable odds of getting picked.

 

[jsk68/73]

Makes a lot of sense! Today’s world is a lot different than days gone bye. Each person has the opportunity to call their own shots, based on what the tea leaves indicate. Then stay focused and push on forward. Best wishes to Julian!

 

[prjohnnies]

Strength of draft class is a factor too.  This year is considered to be stronger than what is projected for next.  That's a factor for kids who view the NBA as the goal out of college and perhaps having a chance at the guaranteed first-round money.

 

[beast of the east]

As someone who follows the NBA and NBA draft very closely I have not seen Julian mentioned in any of the many mock drafts I’ve read over the past few weeks. 

At this point Julian is far from a finished product. He can shoot it, but what else does he do at an NBA level? He sure as hell can’t guard anyone, and he isn’t really a finisher around the rim. 

Will coming back for another year here help him increase his stock? Maybe. But even then I don’t really see him sticking in the NBA. So maybe cashing out now is his best option if he knows he can get some guaranteed money. 

I don't get the "he can't guard anyone" comment.   It appears to me that Julian has blocked more shots in crunch time with perfectly executed in your face defense, many of which inappropriately called as fouls, than anyone I can remember.   Blocked shots doesn't make you a defender, but those types of blocks, on your man the whole way and stuff it back at him without fouling is a thing of beauty.

 

[Anthony Mattia]

FWIW Draft express/ESPN has Justin at 66, Julian 89 and Alvarado 92. 

Julian comes back and is pre season player of the year/improves his draft stock by scoring off the dribble/creating for himself 

or

he plays overseas and gets paid. 

it’s that simple IMO and it’s his decision. We sit back and wait/wish him luck. He’s a great kid from a great legacy family 

 

I have an issue with this in a covid world.  Normally I would agree 100%, but, is it even safe to go overseas to play?  I'm not saying it isn't, I have no idea, but should that be a concern as well.  Perhaps the thinking should be either I am getting drafted by the NBA by the end of the first round or I am going to head back to school.  Barring injury (which is why I always say go make money when you can) Europe will still be an option.

 

[usguard]

All positive directions for him As I said we all wish him the best,a tough decision. But remember he is young and if we follow the science not a risk to get Covic.Not sure but perhaps the team has recd there vacinations? So not going overseas is probably not to risky

 

[OLV72]

There are a few paths he can take, but only one of them comes with a college degree.  Maybe that's an enticement or another goal for him.  He seems to be a well rounded guy with the confidence that it takes to make a run at Big East POY.  The supposedly weaker 22 draft also has to play into his decision.  

 

[mjmaherjr]

There are a few paths he can take, but only one of them comes with a college degree.  Maybe that's an enticement or another goal for him.  He seems to be a well rounded guy with the confidence that it takes to make a run at Big East POY.  The supposedly weaker 22 draft also has to play into his decision.  

Olv72 is humble he knows a lot more than what he says bevsuse of one of the guys here thst sits part time in 114 but he is 114. Bottom line is the wavering drives us all nuts but no doubt Julian is great and smart kid and has great family. I want him back thought yesterday no chance today slight hope but regardless this kid I wish nothing but good things in life because he deserves it

 

[BrookJersey Redmen]

MJ and OLV hit the nail on the head.

Here's my hope--- he comes back, gets his degree in 3 years (easy enough at SJU) and is POY and leading scorer in the BE, second team AA, and mid first round selection in 2022.

On the other hand if he goes, I wish him all the luck in the world, a great kid from a legacy family and one class act.

 

[MakingPlays]

[URL]https://www.zagsblog.com/2021/...ean-as-much-without-both-champagnie-brothers/[/URL]

"St. John’s star Julian Champagnie, the leading scorer in the Big East last season, is testing the draft waters but is expected to return to campus next season, a source close to the situation said."