New York Mets-2018

[quote="gman" post=305444]The new deal, according to Passan, includes Bruce, Swarzak, Kelenic, Dunn and one more minor leaguer. Mcneil is no longer included. I really don't like the idea of giving up Kelenic, but our scouts have been pretty crappy on picking prospects. How many of our 5 tool outfielders have actually come to fruition? We still have 5 tool Desmond Lindsey in the organization to save the day...

I'm not a huge fan of the deal, but it does give us a viable middle of the order player and a stud reliever. The org needs to refill the propsects. Our prospects suck because we keep whiffing on high round picks.[/quote] That pretty much sums up my thoughts. Hopefully a combo of Minaya and Baird will help the scouting.
 
[quote="SI1996" post=305454][quote="gman" post=305444]The new deal, according to Passan, includes Bruce, Swarzak, Kelenic, Dunn and one more minor leaguer. Mcneil is no longer included. I really don't like the idea of giving up Kelenic, but our scouts have been pretty crappy on picking prospects. How many of our 5 tool outfielders have actually come to fruition? We still have 5 tool Desmond Lindsey in the organization to save the day...

I'm not a huge fan of the deal, but it does give us a viable middle of the order player and a stud reliever. The org needs to refill the propsects. Our prospects suck because we keep whiffing on high round picks.[/quote] That pretty much sums up my thoughts. Hopefully a combo of Minaya and Baird will help the scouting.[/quote]

Hiopefully Minaya can help on the Latam Prospects. It's pretty easy to find a quick to major talent there is you are willing to spend.

I also don't think Dunn is a stud prospect. Certainly not as good as our previous best SP in the system.
 
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[quote="gman" post=305444]The new deal, according to Passan, includes Bruce, Swarzak, Kelenic, Dunn and one more minor leaguer. Mcneil is no longer included. I really don't like the idea of giving up Kelenic, but our scouts have been pretty crappy on picking prospects. How many of our 5 tool outfielders have actually come to fruition? We still have 5 tool Desmond Lindsey in the organization to save the day...

I'm not a huge fan of the deal, but it does give us a viable middle of the order player and a stud reliever. The org needs to refill the propsects. Our prospects suck because we keep whiffing on high round picks.[/quote]
Is that a reference to Alex Ochoa or Ryan Thompson? To be fair, it extends past the outfield - for example, David West. An excellent point though on Mets prospects.

Some more “feel good” here
https://nypost.com/2018/11/29/brodie-van-wagenen-not-scared-of-making-unpopular-deal/
 
I don't know how anyone can love this trade. The real issue here is Kelenic and how highly you value a closer. Cano could have been had for Bruce and Swarzak plus money coming back to the Mets. Diaz is a very good closer BUT he has really only had a year of dominance. As evidenced by our own experiences closers are Jekyll and Hydes. We could have just signed a free agent closer either now or at a trade deadline when contending. It happens all the time. Insert Familia as an example.

Now the real question is what's next? The offers for Syndergaard have not been close to fair value. I don't want to see him traded at all. Short term the offense is better. However, Mets have not resolved C, bullpen (Mets need another arm here), and RIGHT HANDED bat somewhere. (CF???)

The Cano/Diaz move is the definition of an all-in NOW move. You can't stop now. However, this is where the Mets usually fall short.
 
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Kelenic looks like the closest to a sure thing as is possible at Low A ball. The kid has a dynamic arm, was on pace for like 60 steals, has power already, and the ability to hit for average. He looks like a Trout type to me. He'll be in the bigs within two years on any team that isn't overly conservative.

Cano will either get suspended for PEDs again or his career will fall off a cliff. He will not be in the majors those last two seasons.

On the plus side, Swaezak and Bruce were done and waste of space and money. The young closer has 4 years left until free agency. That fits in with our window to dominate with the young pitching more than Kelenic's trajectory.
 
Once I saw that we didn’t have to give up McNeil, I agree that this trade while a risk could work out. I don’t love the idea of picking up a steroid user but we aren’t the first team to do this and the trade is more about Diaz who is a young star. We have to wait to see what happens with Syndegaard and the rest of the offseason and look at everything in the aggregate. I also like that Van Wagenen seems to have the Wilpons support to take on some salary which hopefully will be a trend.
 
[quote="sjc88" post=305461]I don't know how anyone can love this trade. The real issue here is Kelenic and how highly you value a closer. Cano could have been had for Bruce and Swarzak plus money coming back to the Mets. Diaz is a very good closer BUT he has really only had a year of dominance. As evidenced by our own experiences closers are Jekyll and Hydes. We could have just signed a free agent closer either now or at a trade deadline when contending. It happens all the time. Insert Familia as an example.

Now the real question is what's next? The offers for Syndergaard have not been close to fair value. I don't want to see him traded at all. Short term the offense is better. However, Mets have not resolved C, bullpen (Mets need another arm here), and RIGHT HANDED bat somewhere. (CF???)

The Cano/Diaz move is the definition of an all-in NOW move. You can't stop now. However, this is where the Mets usually fall short.[/quote]

This deal only works if the Mets aren't done and will commit to adding another couple pieces in FA.
 
[quote="Marillac" post=305467]Kelenic looks like the closest to a sure thing as is possible at Low A ball. The kid has a dynamic arm, was on pace for like 60 steals, has power already, and the ability to hit for average. He looks like a Trout type to me. He'll be in the bigs within two years on any team that isn't overly conservative.

Cano will either get suspended for PEDs again or his career will fall off a cliff. He will not be in the majors those last two seasons.

On the plus side, Swaezak and Bruce were done and waste of space and money. The young closer has 4 years left until free agency. That fits in with our window to dominate with the young pitching more than Kelenic's trajectory.[/quote]

He was on pace for 40-45 steals, but yes the speed is there. One thing to keep in mind is I think the App League is a hitters league, so you will have to see if his bat carries into higher leagues.
 
[quote="Andrew" post=305468]Once I saw that we didn’t have to give up McNeil, I agree that this trade while a risk could work out. I don’t love the idea of picking up a steroid user but we aren’t the first team to do this and the trade is more about Diaz who is a young star. We have to wait to see what happens with Syndegaard and the rest of the offseason and look at everything in the aggregate. I also like that Van Wagenen seems to have the Wilpons support to take on some salary which hopefully will be a trend.[/quote]

I don't have a problem with him using steriods and would actually prefer he stay on them undetected. It's the only way a player over 35 can compete. Everyone was on something before the new testing in 2013.

The problem I have is that once you stop using steriods, your body doesn't just go back to normal, it produces less testosterone that before. That is a disaster for a 36 year old.
 
[quote="Marillac" post=305467]Kelenic looks like the closest to a sure thing as is possible at Low A ball. The kid has a dynamic arm, was on pace for like 60 steals, has power already, and the ability to hit for average. He looks like a Trout type to me. He'll be in the bigs within two years on any team that isn't overly conservative.

Cano will either get suspended for PEDs again or his career will fall off a cliff. He will not be in the majors those last two seasons.

On the plus side, Swaezak and Bruce were done and waste of space and money. The young closer has 4 years left until free agency. That fits in with our window to dominate with the young pitching more than Kelenic's trajectory.[/quote] While I do think Kelenic will be a good prospect, his current progress is well overstated. He didn't make it past Rookie league and hit .253 after his promotion to Kingsport. Whereas the Gorman kid (also from HS in same draft) who the Cards selected 19th overall really did make it to Low A ball and hit 6 homers while there.
 
[quote="Spocky Ramone" post=305460][quote="gman" post=305444]The new deal, according to Passan, includes Bruce, Swarzak, Kelenic, Dunn and one more minor leaguer. Mcneil is no longer included. I really don't like the idea of giving up Kelenic, but our scouts have been pretty crappy on picking prospects. How many of our 5 tool outfielders have actually come to fruition? We still have 5 tool Desmond Lindsey in the organization to save the day...

I'm not a huge fan of the deal, but it does give us a viable middle of the order player and a stud reliever. The org needs to refill the propsects. Our prospects suck because we keep whiffing on high round picks.[/quote]
Is that a reference to Alex Ochoa or Ryan Thompson? To be fair, it extends past the outfield - for example, David West. An excellent point though on Mets prospects.

Some more “feel good” here
https://nypost.com/2018/11/29/brodie-van-wagenen-not-scared-of-making-unpopular-deal/[/quote] Dom Smith.. Gavin Cecchini.. the list goes on..
 
[quote="Spocky Ramone" post=305460][quote="gman" post=305444]The new deal, according to Passan, includes Bruce, Swarzak, Kelenic, Dunn and one more minor leaguer. Mcneil is no longer included. I really don't like the idea of giving up Kelenic, but our scouts have been pretty crappy on picking prospects. How many of our 5 tool outfielders have actually come to fruition? We still have 5 tool Desmond Lindsey in the organization to save the day...

I'm not a huge fan of the deal, but it does give us a viable middle of the order player and a stud reliever. The org needs to refill the propsects. Our prospects suck because we keep whiffing on high round picks.[/quote]
Is that a reference to Alex Ochoa or Ryan Thompson? To be fair, it extends past the outfield - for example, David West. An excellent point though on Mets prospects.

Some more “feel good” here
https://nypost.com/2018/11/29/brodie-van-wagenen-not-scared-of-making-unpopular-deal/[/quote]

How about Lastings Miledge and F-Mart
 
[quote="SI1996" post=305475][quote="Spocky Ramone" post=305460][quote="gman" post=305444]The new deal, according to Passan, includes Bruce, Swarzak, Kelenic, Dunn and one more minor leaguer. Mcneil is no longer included. I really don't like the idea of giving up Kelenic, but our scouts have been pretty crappy on picking prospects. How many of our 5 tool outfielders have actually come to fruition? We still have 5 tool Desmond Lindsey in the organization to save the day...

I'm not a huge fan of the deal, but it does give us a viable middle of the order player and a stud reliever. The org needs to refill the propsects. Our prospects suck because we keep whiffing on high round picks.[/quote]
Is that a reference to Alex Ochoa or Ryan Thompson? To be fair, it extends past the outfield - for example, David West. An excellent point though on Mets prospects.

Some more “feel good” here
https://nypost.com/2018/11/29/brodie-van-wagenen-not-scared-of-making-unpopular-deal/[/quote] Dom Smith.. Gavin Cecchini.. the list goes on..[/quote]

I really don't care too much about prospects unless they are incredibly highly regarded (like Alfonso). Probably the washout rate for even well regarded prospects is 70-85% in terms of them not becoming stars.

One way to look at it is that Cano in essence will only add about 10 million to payroll once you dump Swarzak and Bruce, who were both dead weight. When you look at it that way, not a bad deal at all.
 
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The Mets hype prospects like no other.. from Generation K to F-Mart. Oh how I couldn't wait to watch Wilson/Pulsipher/Isringhausen pitch together.
 
[quote="Knight" post=305497]Jacoby Ellsbury next?[/quote]

As a Yankee fan, that would be great!
 
[quote="SI1996" post=305474][quote="Marillac" post=305467]Kelenic looks like the closest to a sure thing as is possible at Low A ball. The kid has a dynamic arm, was on pace for like 60 steals, has power already, and the ability to hit for average. He looks like a Trout type to me. He'll be in the bigs within two years on any team that isn't overly conservative.

Cano will either get suspended for PEDs again or his career will fall off a cliff. He will not be in the majors those last two seasons.

On the plus side, Swaezak and Bruce were done and waste of space and money. The young closer has 4 years left until free agency. That fits in with our window to dominate with the young pitching more than Kelenic's trajectory.[/quote] While I do think Kelenic will be a good prospect, his current progress is well overstated. He didn't make it past Rookie league and hit .253 after his promotion to Kingsport. Whereas the Gorman kid (also from HS in same draft) who the Cards selected 19th overall really did make it to Low A ball and hit 6 homers while there.[/quote]

Two points there: as I understand it the jump to Kingsport from GCL is much bigger than the jump from Kingsport to low-A.

The Mets have one of the worst staffs for developing position players at low end of the minors, whereas the Cards are known for it. Also, the Mets are basically the slowest and conservative team in baseball for promoting players.

Even Conforto struggled until he was promoted to AA and he was regarded aa top 2-3 college bat in the draft.
 
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