Georgetown (MSG), Tue., Jan. 14 , 7:30p, PEACOCK

Redmen88 said:
Looking at the schedule if you exclude Marquette and UConn, which games would u consider those that are not must win?

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Gtown and Nova on the road?
Hall, Butler and DePaul are must sweeps.
You need to avenge Creighton defeat and not let them sweep

If we claim to be back then we have to act like a Top 3 team in the conference and that means winning almost all your home games with room for a loss to Uconn and/or Marquette.
 
We all seem to have different definitions of must win which is fine. I can see other opinions being that all our remaining home games outside of UConn and Marquette could be classified as must wins just because we will be large favorites. The league likely getting 3-4 teams in does make our margin for error smaller than would normally be the case.
 
SJUWillRockNYC said:
Not a must win, but lets keep a good thing going, and keep racking up these wins.

With that we'll move up the polls, with that we'll have little to worry about in late February & March about making the NCAA Tournament.

So yeah, I just want the NCAA committee idiots to not get any plans about leaving us out again.
Lets just continue to win and not leave any doubt. In late February I want to be on here as a top 15 teams just relaxing and having no doubt that we'll make it. I'm a worrier, what can I say.
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Exactly!!
 
dk423 said:
We've got one quad win. Why does that not add up?

We're a better team than our resume. But our resume isn't very good
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I agree and there are around 7 teams behind us that have more than 1 quad 1 win. That said Houston is 3 in the NET and has zero quad 1 wins. As we saw last year you have the analytic measures and the resume.
 
ADORAZ said:
So we have a smaller total margin of defeat than every team in the nation but one, yet 27 teams have a better NET than we do? Plus, all but two of our wins have been by double digits? This is why it doesn't add up to me, but without the formula being public it's impossible to know why our NET isn't closer to other analytics sites.

If I had to guess, without getting into a conspiracy that the NCAA is rigging the system against us (we're not that important), I guess it's because a lot of our double digit wins were by ~10 rather than ~20+. NET caps the margin of victory/defeat at 10, but if you run up the score there's no cap on other parts of the formula such as offensive and defensive efficiency. Still think we should be about 10 spots higher, though...
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ADORAZ, I think those teams in the NET ranked higher than us that have a larger total margin of defeat have a couple of signature wins which we don’t. I could be wrong but that’s the only thing it could be.
 
I've got a couple questions. The first involves Glover. Some folks here are hoping for his recovery as key to the Johnnies season aspirations. What exactly has he done to date that indicates he is/can be a major contributor this year? Also, has Fox terminated its contract with the BE Conference?
 
PARedman said:
I've got a couple questions. The first involves Glover. Some folks here are hoping for his recovery as key to the Johnnies season aspirations. What exactly has he done to date that indicates he is/can be a major contributor this year? Also, has Fox terminated its contract with the BE Conference?
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No one’s looking for him to be a major contributor just a solid piece off the bench to improve as the season progresses as good freshman do.
 
PARedman said:
I've got a couple questions. The first involves Glover. Some folks here are hoping for his recovery as key to the Johnnies season aspirations. What exactly has he done to date that indicates he is/can be a major contributor this year? Also, has Fox terminated its contract with the BE Conference?
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It’s not about what Glover has done to date, moreso what he can contribute moving forward.
Glover is not your typical deer-in-headlights freshman.

Fox contract expires in 2030-31.
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Moose said:
Gtown and Nova on the road?
Hall, Butler and DePaul are must sweeps.
You need to avenge Creighton defeat and not let them sweep

If we claim to be back then we have to act like a Top 3 team in the conference and that means winning almost all your home games with room for a loss to Uconn and/or Marquette.
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So if we lose tomorrow do we pack it in and assume we are NIT bound, because that’s what a “must win” game means. I would say the term must win should not be thrown around until mid to late February. There are certainly games that can hurt us but no one game in January is going to keep us out of the tournament unless there are several other stumbles along the way.
 
Redmen88 said:
So if we lose tomorrow do we pack it in and assume we are NIT bound, because that’s what a “must win” game means. I would say the term must win should not be thrown around until mid to late February. There are certainly games that can hurt us but no one game in January is going to keep us out of the tournament unless there are several other stumbles along the way.
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Well thankfully we don't play tomorrow. So I guess we're good.

But yes if we lose TUESDAY we absolutely pack it in. That's exactly what I'm saying.................

If you lose Tuesday then you HAVE to beat UConn and/or Marquette. That's why its a must win. Would you rather go into UConn and Marquette with house money or with your back against the wall.

As a fan of this team haven't you seen this script many times before. People are starting to say we are back. If we are back then start acting like it. That means Tuesday is a must win home game against a team behind you in terms of talent and standings. I can't believe this is so hard to grasp but I guess that comes with 20 plus years of mediocrity.

If you want to pick apart the term MUST WIN whatever. If that's the case then no game is a must win until elimination is faced. I don't define must win that way. Hope I'm wrong but very worried with Smith out because I've watched this school for over 20 years.
 
Redmen88 said:
So if we lose tomorrow do we pack it in and assume we are NIT bound, because that’s what a “must win” game means. I would say the term must win should not be thrown around until mid to late February. There are certainly games that can hurt us but no one game in January is going to keep us out of the tournament unless there are several other stumbles along the way.
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The final regular season game at Marquette might turn out to be a must win for the BE title.
 
Moose said:
Well thankfully we don't play tomorrow. So I guess we're good.

But yes if we lose TUESDAY we absolutely pack it in. That's exactly what I'm saying.................

If you lose Tuesday then you HAVE to beat UConn and/or Marquette. That's why its a must win. Would you rather go into UConn and Marquette with house money or with your back against the wall.

As a fan of this team haven't you seen this script many times before. People are starting to say we are back. If we are back then start acting like it. That means Tuesday is a must win home game against a team behind you in terms of talent and standings. I can't believe this is so hard to grasp but I guess that comes with 20 plus years of mediocrity.

If you want to pick apart the term MUST WIN whatever. If that's the case then no game is a must win until elimination is faced. I don't define must win that way. Hope I'm wrong but very worried with Smith out because I've watched this school for over 20 years.
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Moose, I respect you but I think if we lose Tuesday and absolutely HAVE to beat UCONN and/or Marquette (which KenPom has us doing at home) then THOSE are the must win games. Maybe you mean must win if we ... (for example, don't want to have to beat UCONN and/or Marquette).
 
Moose said:
Well thankfully we don't play tomorrow. So I guess we're good.

But yes if we lose TUESDAY we absolutely pack it in. That's exactly what I'm saying.................

If you lose Tuesday then you HAVE to beat UConn and/or Marquette. That's why its a must win. Would you rather go into UConn and Marquette with house money or with your back against the wall.

As a fan of this team haven't you seen this script many times before. People are starting to say we are back. If we are back then start acting like it. That means Tuesday is a must win home game against a team behind you in terms of talent and standings. I can't believe this is so hard to grasp but I guess that comes with 20 plus years of mediocrity.

If you want to pick apart the term MUST WIN whatever. If that's the case then no game is a must win until elimination is faced. I don't define must win that way. Hope I'm wrong but very worried with Smith out because I've watched this school for over 20 years.
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Thanks so much for advising the game is Tuesday. I hope you had a chance to review my spelling and punctuation too!! You probably don't agree but I see this team as much different from teams the previous 20 years. For me this is a new script. This team is good enough to make the tournament and win a game or 2. In my opinion they will lose a game "that they supposed to win" and win a game or 2 in which they are underdogs. Let's just say we disagree philosophically.
 
My feeling is we could split with Georgetown this year. Not because they are better than us, but because the guys had a lot of trouble getting motivated for them in both wins last year. (And here comes the standard disclaimer for a negative post). But I hope I'm wrong.
 
ADORAZ said:
So we have a smaller total margin of defeat than every team in the nation but one, yet 27 teams have a better NET than we do? Plus, all but two of our wins have been by double digits? This is why it doesn't add up to me, but without the formula being public it's impossible to know why our NET isn't closer to other analytics sites.

If I had to guess, without getting into a conspiracy that the NCAA is rigging the system against us (we're not that important), I guess it's because a lot of our double digit wins were by ~10 rather than ~20+. NET caps the margin of victory/defeat at 10, but if you run up the score there's no cap on other parts of the formula such as offensive and defensive efficiency. Still think we should be about 10 spots higher, though...
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Take a look at the NET rankings after Sunday Jan 12th games. Take note of Purdue and Nebraska. Purdue went from 23 to 15 and Nebraska went from 35 to 44. Purdue beat Nebraska at home today 104 to 68. Yes, that is a blowout over a very respectable team. But to move that much when you are already that high up in the rankings (less teams bunched up since you are toward the end of one of the bell curve tails) this far into the season is a clear indication the margin of victory has too much influence on NET rankings via the OE and DE aspects.

I do think there is a systemic bias against teams that play with pace as everything is point per possession. More possessions means that a 15 point victory carries more weight for a slow paced team than it does for a fast paced team. (A 12 point win in a 60 possession game means the same as a 16 point win in an 80 possession game)
 
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