Do we still have a chance -- NCAA Tourney?

[Jack Williams]

My one fear is there is a huge chance we are going to enter the big east tournament with work to do to get in to the NCAAs.

We have never done well in the BET since I've become a fan, so I'm scared we are gonna have a repeat of last season where we enter with a chance to get in but choke

 

[beast of the east]

We can get in at 7-11 and making the Big East finals. Don't believe me? Try it yourself. Have them win 4 more conference games (I did Creighton, DePaul, Seton Hall, Xavier) and then set 4 "Extra" neutral court games with us winning 3 and losing one (we'd play on the opening night with the 7, 8, 9, 10 teams, so 4 games total). Our RPI would be right around 50, give or take a few spots depending on who we'd play.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/cgi-bin/rpiwizard.cgi

Will this happen? Probably not. My point is there are a lot of possibilities. We shouldn't be painting this as needing to go 7-3 or whatever rest of the way. That would simply guarantee us a position BEFORE the Big East tournament.

Hahahahahahaha
Oh lordy. That just cracked me up Adam, thanks alot I needed that.
So if we finish 7-11 but some how make the B.E. finals then we get it?
What makes you believe that we'd get to the BE finals if we go 7-11?

that was the best post of the year by far.

I used an extreme to make a point. The point is...

7-11 with 3 Big East tournament wins
8-10 with 2 Big East tournament wins
9-9 with 1 Big East tournament win
10-8 with 0 Big East tournament wins
...or win the tournament and get the automatic bid.

It's not black and white. There's multiple possibilities. And Providence won it all last year which was very unlikely.

There is nothing wrong with what you pointed out. Some posters are holding to the notion that we need 20013-2014 win totals when this league is entirely different this season. We have a strong RPI this year whereas the RPI last season was poor after the loss to Depual.

I believe the magic # this year is 19 win (not counting Franklin Pierce). Under your model, we got #19. I'd feel a lot better if we got 20+ obviously, as I think that eliminates any doubts.

Would you agree going 8-10 in BE would preclude dancing? Not being negative & hope we don't wind up there, but in such a balanced league that record would mean NIT to me. ( Unless we miraculously win BE T)

8-10 would be put us 5th-7th in league (ties included). No way an 8-10 BE team gets in unless there was an amazing resume out of conference. Which we don't have. I say 9-9 doesn't get us in either because we have no cache, no brand identity. I say let's finish strong and see how it plays out.

Agree Beast, but 9 wins & making BE T finals would make it interesting perhaps.

I would say that it would make it interesting. What would that give us, likely a 2-1 record in the BET (if we went 9-9)?

How many bids are given to conference winners who get in regardless of RPI, and wouldn't get in otherwise?

I also think you have to factor in an anti-NY bias from the committee members, although it's a subjective subject.

 

[paultzman]

We can get in at 7-11 and making the Big East finals. Don't believe me? Try it yourself. Have them win 4 more conference games (I did Creighton, DePaul, Seton Hall, Xavier) and then set 4 "Extra" neutral court games with us winning 3 and losing one (we'd play on the opening night with the 7, 8, 9, 10 teams, so 4 games total). Our RPI would be right around 50, give or take a few spots depending on who we'd play.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/cgi-bin/rpiwizard.cgi

Will this happen? Probably not. My point is there are a lot of possibilities. We shouldn't be painting this as needing to go 7-3 or whatever rest of the way. That would simply guarantee us a position BEFORE the Big East tournament.

Hahahahahahaha
Oh lordy. That just cracked me up Adam, thanks alot I needed that.
So if we finish 7-11 but some how make the B.E. finals then we get it?
What makes you believe that we'd get to the BE finals if we go 7-11?

that was the best post of the year by far.

I used an extreme to make a point. The point is...

7-11 with 3 Big East tournament wins
8-10 with 2 Big East tournament wins
9-9 with 1 Big East tournament win
10-8 with 0 Big East tournament wins
...or win the tournament and get the automatic bid.

It's not black and white. There's multiple possibilities. And Providence won it all last year which was very unlikely.

There is nothing wrong with what you pointed out. Some posters are holding to the notion that we need 20013-2014 win totals when this league is entirely different this season. We have a strong RPI this year whereas the RPI last season was poor after the loss to Depual.

I believe the magic # this year is 19 win (not counting Franklin Pierce). Under your model, we got #19. I'd feel a lot better if we got 20+ obviously, as I think that eliminates any doubts.

Would you agree going 8-10 in BE would preclude dancing? Not being negative & hope we don't wind up there, but in such a balanced league that record would mean NIT to me. ( Unless we miraculously win BE T)

8-10 would be put us 5th-7th in league (ties included). No way an 8-10 BE team gets in unless there was an amazing resume out of conference. Which we don't have. I say 9-9 doesn't get us in either because we have no cache, no brand identity. I say let's finish strong and see how it plays out.

Agree Beast, but 9 wins & making BE T finals would make it interesting perhaps.

I would say that it would make it interesting. What would that give us, likely a 2-1 record in the BET (if we went 9-9)?

How many bids are given to conference winners who get in regardless of RPI, and wouldn't get in otherwise?

I also think you have to factor in an anti-NY bias from the committee members, although it's a subjective subject.

Good points

 

[postell25]

The selection committee doesn't look at conference record. What St. John's finishes in conference is a non-factor. It's who we beat and where we beat them. The Big East is looking like they are going to get at least 6 teams in. Do you think 6 teams are going to above .500 in a ten team league?

We have 10 games left. Winning against Marquette, Creighton and DePaul is super important. The rest of our schedule doesn't have a team with an RPI rank higher than 34. Even if we go 3-4 in those games we are a lock. That'd give us 5 Top 50 wins with passing the eyeball test against Gonzaga and Duke as well as no really bad losses. Call DePaul and Creighton bad losses but they were on the road and they were not sub 150 losses like Providence has against Brown (248) or Xavier has against Auburn (156).

 

[1and1sju]

We can get in at 7-11 and making the Big East finals. Don't believe me? Try it yourself. Have them win 4 more conference games (I did Creighton, DePaul, Seton Hall, Xavier) and then set 4 "Extra" neutral court games with us winning 3 and losing one (we'd play on the opening night with the 7, 8, 9, 10 teams, so 4 games total). Our RPI would be right around 50, give or take a few spots depending on who we'd play.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/cgi-bin/rpiwizard.cgi

Will this happen? Probably not. My point is there are a lot of possibilities. We shouldn't be painting this as needing to go 7-3 or whatever rest of the way. That would simply guarantee us a position BEFORE the Big East tournament.

Hahahahahahaha
Oh lordy. That just cracked me up Adam, thanks alot I needed that.
So if we finish 7-11 but some how make the B.E. finals then we get it?
What makes you believe that we'd get to the BE finals if we go 7-11?

that was the best post of the year by far.

I used an extreme to make a point. The point is...

7-11 with 3 Big East tournament wins
8-10 with 2 Big East tournament wins
9-9 with 1 Big East tournament win
10-8 with 0 Big East tournament wins
...or win the tournament and get the automatic bid.

It's not black and white. There's multiple possibilities. And Providence won it all last year which was very unlikely.

There is nothing wrong with what you pointed out. Some posters are holding to the notion that we need 20013-2014 win totals when this league is entirely different this season. We have a strong RPI this year whereas the RPI last season was poor after the loss to Depual.

I believe the magic # this year is 19 win (not counting Franklin Pierce). Under your model, we got #19. I'd feel a lot better if we got 20+ obviously, as I think that eliminates any doubts.

Would you agree going 8-10 in BE would preclude dancing? Not being negative & hope we don't wind up there, but in such a balanced league that record would mean NIT to me. ( Unless we miraculously win BE T)

8-10 would be put us 5th-7th in league (ties included). No way an 8-10 BE team gets in unless there was an amazing resume out of conference. Which we don't have. I say 9-9 doesn't get us in either because we have no cache, no brand identity. I say let's finish strong and see how it plays out.

Agree Beast, but 9 wins & making BE T finals would make it interesting perhaps.

I would say that it would make it interesting. What would that give us, likely a 2-1 record in the BET (if we went 9-9)?

How many bids are given to conference winners who get in regardless of RPI, and wouldn't get in otherwise?

I also think you have to factor in an anti-NY bias from the committee members, although it's a subjective subject.

It was my understanding that teams on the coasts usually have an advantage with the committee, why do you think the opposite is true Beast?

 

[beast of the east]

We can get in at 7-11 and making the Big East finals. Don't believe me? Try it yourself. Have them win 4 more conference games (I did Creighton, DePaul, Seton Hall, Xavier) and then set 4 "Extra" neutral court games with us winning 3 and losing one (we'd play on the opening night with the 7, 8, 9, 10 teams, so 4 games total). Our RPI would be right around 50, give or take a few spots depending on who we'd play.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/cgi-bin/rpiwizard.cgi

Will this happen? Probably not. My point is there are a lot of possibilities. We shouldn't be painting this as needing to go 7-3 or whatever rest of the way. That would simply guarantee us a position BEFORE the Big East tournament.

Hahahahahahaha
Oh lordy. That just cracked me up Adam, thanks alot I needed that.
So if we finish 7-11 but some how make the B.E. finals then we get it?
What makes you believe that we'd get to the BE finals if we go 7-11?

that was the best post of the year by far.

I used an extreme to make a point. The point is...

7-11 with 3 Big East tournament wins
8-10 with 2 Big East tournament wins
9-9 with 1 Big East tournament win
10-8 with 0 Big East tournament wins
...or win the tournament and get the automatic bid.

It's not black and white. There's multiple possibilities. And Providence won it all last year which was very unlikely.

There is nothing wrong with what you pointed out. Some posters are holding to the notion that we need 20013-2014 win totals when this league is entirely different this season. We have a strong RPI this year whereas the RPI last season was poor after the loss to Depual.

I believe the magic # this year is 19 win (not counting Franklin Pierce). Under your model, we got #19. I'd feel a lot better if we got 20+ obviously, as I think that eliminates any doubts.

Would you agree going 8-10 in BE would preclude dancing? Not being negative & hope we don't wind up there, but in such a balanced league that record would mean NIT to me. ( Unless we miraculously win BE T)

8-10 would be put us 5th-7th in league (ties included). No way an 8-10 BE team gets in unless there was an amazing resume out of conference. Which we don't have. I say 9-9 doesn't get us in either because we have no cache, no brand identity. I say let's finish strong and see how it plays out.

Agree Beast, but 9 wins & making BE T finals would make it interesting perhaps.

I would say that it would make it interesting. What would that give us, likely a 2-1 record in the BET (if we went 9-9)?

How many bids are given to conference winners who get in regardless of RPI, and wouldn't get in otherwise?

I also think you have to factor in an anti-NY bias from the committee members, although it's a subjective subject.

It was my understanding that teams on the coasts usually have an advantage with the committee, why do you think the opposite is true Beast?

Others here would know better. But I thought that the NCAA selection committee is better represented by conferences such as the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, etc. It doesn't matter much for clear cut cases, but for bubble teams it can make a heck of a difference.

 

[paultzman]

@BrandonTierney: Big challenge for SJU tonight at #Hinkle vs. #22 @ButlerMBB. Can #Johnnies establish pace and push game into low/mid 70's? If so, they win.

@BrandonTierney: Better believe the #NCAA committee will be judging their performance w/very discerning eye...must follow Sat.'s win vs Friars w/one tonight.

 

[ADORAZ]

Well, I have one final thing to add. "Bubble" teams are generally around high 40s low 50s, not low 40s and certainly not anywhere in the 30s.

HOWEVER, just because the model has us making it at 9-9 with a tournament win doesn't mean the model will hold up. For example, if Syracuse continues sliding that'd hurt. Jack mentioned Saint Mary's loss which wasn't good, and hopefully they can stay around the bubble. LBSU is another team that could slide. Important to watch the OOC teams.

 

[postell25]

Well, I have one final thing to add. "Bubble" teams are generally around high 40s low 50s, not low 40s and certainly not anywhere in the 30s.

HOWEVER, just because the model has us making it at 9-9 with a tournament win doesn't mean the model will hold up. For example, if Syracuse continues sliding that'd hurt. Jack mentioned Saint Mary's loss which wasn't good, and hopefully they can stay around the bubble. LBSU is another team that could slide. Important to watch the OOC teams.

St. Marys will slide unless they beat Gonzaga and Long Beach State most definitely slide even if they win out in the Big West. It's such a lousy conference which is why they schedule a monster non-conference schedule.

 

[weathermannyc]

Let's talk after tonight. I really believe this is the season tonight. It's likely our last "reasonable" chance of getting a high profile road win. ( I don't see us beating Xavier, G'town or nova on the road)
Get to 4-5 and I think its better than 50-50 that we'll find a way to get in. Drop to 3-6 and I think it's very unlikely. It's just that big a difference.

I think we can get in at 9-9 and a win in the Big East Tournament. Our resultant RPI (Top 40) and SOS (Top 30) will be high enough that three Top 70 RPI (and maybe better) road wins in PC, SU and BU and no worse than 6 Top 50 RPI wins and likely 9-10 Top 100 RPI wins combined with passing the eye test against Duke in one of the most watched games of the year gets us in. But, you have to get to 9-9. Don't see us getting in at 8-10 unless you were to lose a heartbreaker in the BET Final which have to be considered extremely unlikely due to our depth and inability to get to 9-9 in conference.

 

[paultzman]

Let's talk after tonight. I really believe this is the season tonight. It's likely our last "reasonable" chance of getting a high profile road win. ( I don't see us beating Xavier, G'town or nova on the road)
Get to 4-5 and I think its better than 50-50 that we'll find a way to get in. Drop to 3-6 and I think it's very unlikely. It's just that big a difference.

I think we can get in at 9-9 and a win in the Big East Tournament. Our resultant RPI (Top 40) and SOS (Top 30) will be high enough that three Top 70 RPI (and maybe better) road wins in PC, SU and BU and no worse than 6 Top 50 RPI wins and likely 9-10 Top 100 RPI wins combined with passing the eye test against Duke in one of the most watched games of the year gets us in. But, you have to get to 9-9. Don't see us getting in at 8-10 unless you were to lose a heartbreaker in the BET Final which have to be considered extremely unlikely due to our depth and inability to get to 9-9 in conference.

+1

 

[beast of the east]

Well, I have one final thing to add. "Bubble" teams are generally around high 40s low 50s, not low 40s and certainly not anywhere in the 30s.

HOWEVER, just because the model has us making it at 9-9 with a tournament win doesn't mean the model will hold up. For example, if Syracuse continues sliding that'd hurt. Jack mentioned Saint Mary's loss which wasn't good, and hopefully they can stay around the bubble. LBSU is another team that could slide. Important to watch the OOC teams.

Adam, I was asking. If your RPI is 50, does that mean only 16 mid-majors get in with higher RPIs but because they won their conference? Sounds low to me, but I'm too lazy to look.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

assuming we win tonight, which would put us at 4-5 , we would need to win every home game (SH, GT, X, Creighton, Depaul) which puts us at 9 and then a win at Marq would be 10.

Tonight is not must win, but we would then need a sweep vs Xavier or GT plus win the rest of the games above....either scenario would give us four more top 50 RPI wins.

That is the easiest blue print because we should be favored in every home game going forward (maybe slight underdog vs GT?)

That is 10 plus win one in the Garden for good measure which would be good for a bid. probably in the 8-10 range.

 

[beast of the east]

assuming we win tonight, which would put us at 4-5 , we would need to win every home game (SH, GT, X, Creighton, Depaul) which puts us at 9 and then a win at Marq would be 10.

Tonight is not must win, but we would then need a sweep vs Xavier or GT plus win the rest of the games above....either scenario would give us four more top 50 RPI wins.

That is the easiest blue print because we should be favored in every home game going forward (maybe slight underdog vs GT?)

That is 10 plus win one in the Garden for good measure which would be good for a bid. probably in the 8-10 range.

Got... to... get.... out.... of.... this.... hole.... tonight....

 

[redfan259999888]

assuming we win tonight, which would put us at 4-5 , we would need to win every home game (SH, GT, X, Creighton, Depaul) which puts us at 9 and then a win at Marq would be 10.

Tonight is not must win, but we would then need a sweep vs Xavier or GT plus win the rest of the games above....either scenario would give us four more top 50 RPI wins.

That is the easiest blue print because we should be favored in every home game going forward (maybe slight underdog vs GT?)

That is 10 plus win one in the Garden for good measure which would be good for a bid. probably in the 8-10 range.

I can't look at the next 10 games, I'm just concerned with the next 5.
Win these 3 coming up, and split at X and G-Town. I think if they can do that, then they'll be fine at 7-6.
Go at the worst 2-3, and we get to 9-9.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

assuming we win tonight, which would put us at 4-5 , we would need to win every home game (SH, GT, X, Creighton, Depaul) which puts us at 9 and then a win at Marq would be 10.

Tonight is not must win, but we would then need a sweep vs Xavier or GT plus win the rest of the games above....either scenario would give us four more top 50 RPI wins.

That is the easiest blue print because we should be favored in every home game going forward (maybe slight underdog vs GT?)

That is 10 plus win one in the Garden for good measure which would be good for a bid. probably in the 8-10 range.

Got... to... get.... out.... of.... this.... hole.... tonight....

i agree 4-5 is better than 3-6 but this is not like last year where we didnt have any quality opponents on the schedule and we had to put all of the eggs in a basket at Nova and vs Xavier at MSG.

the BE is very strong and balanced this year, where tonight isnt "do or die" but i agree that a W tonight can go a long way to righting the ship especially with a few easier games coming up at home.

i think its a very tough spot tonight but we need to win one of these road games to make up for the Creighton disaster. The Depaul disaster was cancelled out by the win at Providence.

 

[beast of the east]

assuming we win tonight, which would put us at 4-5 , we would need to win every home game (SH, GT, X, Creighton, Depaul) which puts us at 9 and then a win at Marq would be 10.

Tonight is not must win, but we would then need a sweep vs Xavier or GT plus win the rest of the games above....either scenario would give us four more top 50 RPI wins.

That is the easiest blue print because we should be favored in every home game going forward (maybe slight underdog vs GT?)

That is 10 plus win one in the Garden for good measure which would be good for a bid. probably in the 8-10 range.

Got... to... get.... out.... of.... this.... hole.... tonight....

i agree 4-5 is better than 3-6 but this is not like last year where we didnt have any quality opponents on the schedule and we had to put all of the eggs in a basket at Nova and vs Xavier at MSG.

the BE is very strong and balanced this year, where tonight isnt "do or die" but i agree that a W tonight can go a long way to righting the ship especially with a few easier games coming up at home.

i think its a very tough spot tonight but we need to win one of these road games to make up for the Creighton disaster. The Depaul disaster was cancelled out by the win at Providence.

Am thinking of our BE schedule as 9 two game series. Don't want to get swept in any, and rather than 3-5 we are up one sweep.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

assuming we win tonight, which would put us at 4-5 , we would need to win every home game (SH, GT, X, Creighton, Depaul) which puts us at 9 and then a win at Marq would be 10.

Tonight is not must win, but we would then need a sweep vs Xavier or GT plus win the rest of the games above....either scenario would give us four more top 50 RPI wins.

That is the easiest blue print because we should be favored in every home game going forward (maybe slight underdog vs GT?)

That is 10 plus win one in the Garden for good measure which would be good for a bid. probably in the 8-10 range.

I can't look at the next 10 games, I'm jujst concerned with the next 5.
Win these 3 coming up, and split at X. I think if they can do that, then they'll be fine at 7-6.
Go at the worst 2-3, and we get to 9-9.

would be much more comfortable at 10-8 for seeding purposes. and it is not impossible to do.

Would also like to avoid Tuesday/Weds in Dayton at all costs - a 10-8 record in the league would guarantee us a game on Thursday or Friday.

 

[redfan259999888]

assuming we win tonight, which would put us at 4-5 , we would need to win every home game (SH, GT, X, Creighton, Depaul) which puts us at 9 and then a win at Marq would be 10.

Tonight is not must win, but we would then need a sweep vs Xavier or GT plus win the rest of the games above....either scenario would give us four more top 50 RPI wins.

That is the easiest blue print because we should be favored in every home game going forward (maybe slight underdog vs GT?)

That is 10 plus win one in the Garden for good measure which would be good for a bid. probably in the 8-10 range.

I can't look at the next 10 games, I'm jujst concerned with the next 5.
Win these 3 coming up, and split at X. I think if they can do that, then they'll be fine at 7-6.
Go at the worst 2-3, and we get to 9-9.

would be much more comfortable at 10-8 for seeding purposes. and it is not impossible to do.

Would also like to avoid Tuesday/Weds in Dayton at all costs - a 10-8 record in the league would guarantee us a game on Thursday or Friday.

10-8 or 9-9 and a win get in the B.E. tournament. Gets us 21 wins either way

 

[room112]

The selection committee doesn't look at conference record. What St. John's finishes in conference is a non-factor. It's who we beat and where we beat them. The Big East is looking like they are going to get at least 6 teams in. Do you think 6 teams are going to above .500 in a ten team league?

We have 10 games left. Winning against Marquette, Creighton and DePaul is super important. The rest of our schedule doesn't have a team with an RPI rank higher than 34. Even if we go 3-4 in those games we are a lock. That'd give us 5 Top 50 wins with passing the eyeball test against Gonzaga and Duke as well as no really bad losses. Call DePaul and Creighton bad losses but they were on the road and they were not sub 150 losses like Providence has against Brown (248) or Xavier has against Auburn (156).

This is exactly how I see it too. We have plenty of good opportunities left for signature wins, we just need to take care of business.