redfan25976l
Member
Just looked at Net Rankings...1 of 11 big east teams are quad1.....8 of 14 big 10 teams are quad one....ARE YOU KIDDING....its a shame and a crime...
...Can we make the Tournament?
- Thread starter ADORAZ
- Start date
Ok, I am going to be an (unpopular) dissenting voice here. Lunardi is clearly wrong by saying today meant nothing. It's a Q2 win which the comittee will look at as a quality win. As others have said, @PC is closer to being Q1 than Q3, so while unlikely there is a better chance of it becoming a gold star win (Q1) than it does of being a the type of win that is only good because you avoided a bad loss. (Q3 or 4)
That being said, I don't think being on the bubble and possibly even the wrong side of it is unreasonable right now. We have 2 Q1 wins and 2 Q2 wins all except one of which happened in the last 8 days. So, our emergence is a very recent one. Before that, we were on nobodies radar. We also have absolutely nothing to show for our OOC schedule other than we avoided bad losses. BC (neutral) is our best win with a NET of 131 and an overall record of 3-11. Our second best win is LaSalle at 166.
As of now, we have 2 wins against teams expected to be in the tournament. We have 2 Top 50 wins and 4 in the Top 100. We still have work to do.
For background...here is our resume from 2019 when we were the last team in:
Q1: 5-7
Q2: 5-3
Top 50 wins: 4
Top 100 wins: 9
Bad losses: 2
It won't take as much since every team will have less games played (and thus less opportunities) than a normal year and you are judged by teams this year and not other years. If we continue to play the way we have in recent weeks and show that the play the last few weeks are indicutive of the team we are now and not just a couple of good weeks then we should be just fine. It's incredible that basically everyone who plays has improved and grown significantly since the start of the season. It's a testament to the kids and the staff that have perservered and started to prosper in the very tough environment of 2020-20201.
That being said, I don't think being on the bubble and possibly even the wrong side of it is unreasonable right now. We have 2 Q1 wins and 2 Q2 wins all except one of which happened in the last 8 days. So, our emergence is a very recent one. Before that, we were on nobodies radar. We also have absolutely nothing to show for our OOC schedule other than we avoided bad losses. BC (neutral) is our best win with a NET of 131 and an overall record of 3-11. Our second best win is LaSalle at 166.
As of now, we have 2 wins against teams expected to be in the tournament. We have 2 Top 50 wins and 4 in the Top 100. We still have work to do.
For background...here is our resume from 2019 when we were the last team in:
Q1: 5-7
Q2: 5-3
Top 50 wins: 4
Top 100 wins: 9
Bad losses: 2
It won't take as much since every team will have less games played (and thus less opportunities) than a normal year and you are judged by teams this year and not other years. If we continue to play the way we have in recent weeks and show that the play the last few weeks are indicutive of the team we are now and not just a couple of good weeks then we should be just fine. It's incredible that basically everyone who plays has improved and grown significantly since the start of the season. It's a testament to the kids and the staff that have perservered and started to prosper in the very tough environment of 2020-20201.
weathermannyc - I mostly agree. One thing to keep in mind about our 2019 resume is that our NET (#72) was really bad. We actually had the worst NET (previously RPI) of any at-large Tournament team in history. The only reason we were selected was because of our strong Q1 wins. Without them we never would've been close to the bubble. Our NET this year is better than it was then, so we won't need nearly as many Q1 wins. Generally bubble teams only have 1-2 Q1 wins, so I think we're doing a fine job there. Could always do better, though, and we will have at least 1 more chance to get one. Mostly we just need to keep winning and improving our NET, I'm not concerned about our Q1 resume.
Not everyone is as optimistic about StJohn's dancing as those who have posted in this thread are.
The below linked site "TR Brackets" (never heard of it before) still only gives the Johnnies a 23.6% chance of dancing after yesterdays win. It predicts that St. John's will need to win 6 more games, a total of 19 wins this season in order to have over a 50% chance of dancing. I also note a poster on another Big East website is openly soliciting bets that St. John's does not get an invite to this years NCAA Tournament.
The bottom line is that the St. Joh's team controls its own destiny regarding the NCAA this season, and the only way for this team gets an invite is to win, win, and win more games.
Beat Butler.
[URL]https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/st-johns-red-storm/bracketology[/URL]
The below linked site "TR Brackets" (never heard of it before) still only gives the Johnnies a 23.6% chance of dancing after yesterdays win. It predicts that St. John's will need to win 6 more games, a total of 19 wins this season in order to have over a 50% chance of dancing. I also note a poster on another Big East website is openly soliciting bets that St. John's does not get an invite to this years NCAA Tournament.
The bottom line is that the St. Joh's team controls its own destiny regarding the NCAA this season, and the only way for this team gets an invite is to win, win, and win more games.
Beat Butler.
[URL]https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/st-johns-red-storm/bracketology[/URL]
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Listening to all pre and postgame interviews, CMA seems to have all the players locked-in, staying humble. This group is hungry. Yesterdays game was a huge mental test coming off the upset of Villanova. Not worried at all about perceived brackets, they will let their play decide their fate.
You are correct. Most bubble teams have fairly weak resumes. That's what puts them on the bubble. We will have to see how things turn out, but I suspect that more Q1 and definately Q2 wins are out there since its easier to win road games without fans.Adam" post=418076 said:
( I believe its easier to beat the 70th team on the road without fans than it is to beat the 30th team at home with fans.)
Agree. Yesterday was a potential trap game. So is Butler on Tuesday. (It'll be the first time we face a team that we've already beaten) I was most impressed with the response after blowing a 17 point lead to find ourselves down 5 with PC dictating style of play. I thought the game was over and we had blown a golden opportunity. But, we battled back and answered with a 20-3 run that basically served as a knockout punch. We have developed the ability to put an impressive game changing run on anyone. Sometimes we do it more than once per game. We also seem to give up one of these per game. Maybe its a function of our style of play and its natural ebb and flow. But, if we ever figure out how to hold the other teams run to 10-2 instead of allowing 18-4 or something...espken" post=418091 said:
Weatherman, agree on all this and on limiting the runs. I thought our defense was atrocious yesterday for the first 25 minutes of the game. We just weren’t stopping the ball or making the ball handlers work hard. For as dominant as it looked vs Nova and down the stretch yesterday, it’s still clearly a work in progress. As it gets tighter and more suffocating, we should be stunting the other teams’ runs more quickly. Still room to grow, which is great news for us.
Mullins Revenge
Well-known member
As of this morning, cbs has us as an 11 seed playing in a first four game against LSU. If we win, they have us up against Rutgers.
[URL]https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/[/URL]
[URL]https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/[/URL]
QueensBall
Member
From Borzello at ESPN today...
Win of the Week: [URL]https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2599/st.-john[/URL]'s-red-storm]St. John's Red Storm[/url] 70, [URL]https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/222/villanova-wildcats[/URL]]Villanova Wildcats[/url] 59
The biggest compliment one can give the Red Storm for this game is the outcome was really never in doubt for the final 30 minutes of the contest. St. John's completely outplayed Villanova, taking the Wildcats out of what they wanted to do on the offensive end. Jay Wright's team looked rattled for stretches, settling for shots and turning the ball over. The Red Storm went on a 14-2 run spanning both halves and then kept Villanova at an arm's length the rest of the way. There were a couple of times it looked as if Villanova might get run out of the building. St. John's freshman [URL]https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4433156/posh-alexander[/URL]]Posh Alexander[/url] tormented the Wildcats all night, going for 16 points, six assists and three steals. He was a one-man full-court press, not allowing [URL]https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4278585/collin-gillespie[/URL]]Collin Gillespie[/url] (who finished 2-for-12 with six turnovers) to get in a rhythm.Combined with Saturday's win at Providence, the Red Storm are squarely in the mix for the NCAA tournament. St. John's has now won six in a row to get back above .500 in the Big East, and according to the New York Post's Zach Braziller, it's the Red Storm's first four-game road winning streak in the league since 1999. Can they build on this? The schedule is friendly down the stretch.
Win of the Week: [URL]https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2599/st.-john[/URL]'s-red-storm]St. John's Red Storm[/url] 70, [URL]https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/222/villanova-wildcats[/URL]]Villanova Wildcats[/url] 59
The biggest compliment one can give the Red Storm for this game is the outcome was really never in doubt for the final 30 minutes of the contest. St. John's completely outplayed Villanova, taking the Wildcats out of what they wanted to do on the offensive end. Jay Wright's team looked rattled for stretches, settling for shots and turning the ball over. The Red Storm went on a 14-2 run spanning both halves and then kept Villanova at an arm's length the rest of the way. There were a couple of times it looked as if Villanova might get run out of the building. St. John's freshman [URL]https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4433156/posh-alexander[/URL]]Posh Alexander[/url] tormented the Wildcats all night, going for 16 points, six assists and three steals. He was a one-man full-court press, not allowing [URL]https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4278585/collin-gillespie[/URL]]Collin Gillespie[/url] (who finished 2-for-12 with six turnovers) to get in a rhythm.Combined with Saturday's win at Providence, the Red Storm are squarely in the mix for the NCAA tournament. St. John's has now won six in a row to get back above .500 in the Big East, and according to the New York Post's Zach Braziller, it's the Red Storm's first four-game road winning streak in the league since 1999. Can they build on this? The schedule is friendly down the stretch.
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MarkRedman
Well-known member
If we finish at .500 or better in the Big East, we should get an NCAA bid
They way things are going, we have a good chance to make that happen
They way things are going, we have a good chance to make that happen
Degree of difficulty of the remaining games, ranked easiest to hardest to win:
DePaul
@Butler
Providence
Xavier
@Nova
Seton Hall
IMO the most likely outcome is 3-3, which would be 16-10, 10-9, probably 5th in the league depending on what UConn does (they have 2 v Georgetown, 2 v Providence, at X, at Nova, Marq, at the Hall left - my guess is they finish either 9-10 or 10-9 and we have the tiebreaker).
Considering that the ACC is looking like a 6 or 7 bid league as opposed to a 9 bid league, I think the Big East will get either 5 or 6 teams into the NCAA tournament.
Winning a couple of games in the BET would seal the deal.
DePaul
@Butler
Providence
Xavier
@Nova
Seton Hall
IMO the most likely outcome is 3-3, which would be 16-10, 10-9, probably 5th in the league depending on what UConn does (they have 2 v Georgetown, 2 v Providence, at X, at Nova, Marq, at the Hall left - my guess is they finish either 9-10 or 10-9 and we have the tiebreaker).
Considering that the ACC is looking like a 6 or 7 bid league as opposed to a 9 bid league, I think the Big East will get either 5 or 6 teams into the NCAA tournament.
Winning a couple of games in the BET would seal the deal.
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New AP Top 25 poll: Nova #5, Creighton #19
St. John's received 7 points
Others receiving votes:
Colorado 41, San Diego State 38, Xavier 37, UCLA 35, Florida 29, Louisville 28, Belmont 25, Kansas 18, Drake 16, Minnesota 12, North Carolina 8, St. John's 7, Toledo 6, Clemson 6, Arkansas 3, Boise State 3, Saint Louis 2, UAB 1, Virginia Commonwealth 1, BYU 1
St. John's received 7 points
Others receiving votes:
Colorado 41, San Diego State 38, Xavier 37, UCLA 35, Florida 29, Louisville 28, Belmont 25, Kansas 18, Drake 16, Minnesota 12, North Carolina 8, St. John's 7, Toledo 6, Clemson 6, Arkansas 3, Boise State 3, Saint Louis 2, UAB 1, Virginia Commonwealth 1, BYU 1
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MakingPlays
Well-known member
I think 4-2 is very doable. It's possible Johnnies will be favored in all the remaining games except the Villanova road game.lawmanfan" post=418292 said:
Also, Zach said yesterday, he heard the league really wants to get that St.John's/UConn game rescheduled. So adding that game, that's another winnable home game. Regardless if that game gets added or not, I think 4 more regular season wins should punch the ticket, hoping they can get that done, so it's less pressure in the BE tournament and it's just playing for seeding position.
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espken" post=418091 said:
strangely, St. John's did not receive any votes in USA Today coaches poll! these schools did:
Florida 43; Louisville 38; Rutgers 30; Kansas 30; Drake 23; San Diego St. 18; Colorado 15; Oregon 14; Belmont 13; Minnesota 12; Xavier 10; UAB 6; Utah St. 5; Clemson 5; Louisiana State 4; Winthrop 3; Seton Hall 3; Arkansas 3; Toledo 1; Saint Louis 1.
Florida 43; Louisville 38; Rutgers 30; Kansas 30; Drake 23; San Diego St. 18; Colorado 15; Oregon 14; Belmont 13; Minnesota 12; Xavier 10; UAB 6; Utah St. 5; Clemson 5; Louisiana State 4; Winthrop 3; Seton Hall 3; Arkansas 3; Toledo 1; Saint Louis 1.