Bubble Watch

OLV72 said:
What is your source for this list? Wiki has Rachelle Paul as a member. She moved from St Peters (MAAC) to Miami (ACC) after she was put on the committee. If she is still an active member, she would have a Conflict of Interest now that she works in the ACC. Virginia is the most controversial case.

I tried to confirm this by searching the NCAA site, but I could not find a listing of the members of this selection committee.
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hoopshd.com

NCAA Tournament Selection Committee

The 2025-2026 Selection Committee (the year the term is up is in parenthesis): KEITH GILL (2026) – Sun Belt Commissioner (Chairperson) MARK COYLE (2026) – Minnesota Athletic Direct…
hoopshd.com hoopshd.com

Committees

web1.ncaa.org web1.ncaa.org
 
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Don't look at this backwards. The obvious teams are in, and there is nothing the committee can do about it. The obvious teams are out, and there is nothing the committee can do about that either. Then they look at who is left and cut deals to take the teams they prefer for various reasons. That was done by Saturday afternoon, as they told everyone. Then they spend Sunday to look at their categories to use for some nonsensical reasons to explain the backroom deals.

This is how they do it every year, there are no defined goal posts on purpose. Actually, there is, you can be a program that is obviously in or out. Which is why so many SJU fans have been shocked at what happened, SJU has been obviously out for ten years now, except for Mullins last year, but they got in that year. And guess what, that decision was very hard to defend logically. So, this is new to SJU fans.

It is what it is, it's not hard to figure out who the people with power in the backroom are, and the only way out is to get to the "obvious" category. I think Pitino is frustrated with the portal stuff but not especially worried about how the bubble works. If he can't get SJU consistently past that category I think he would look for the exits. His sights are much higher than that.
 
IDRAFT said:
Don't look at this backwards. The obvious teams are in, and there is nothing the committee can do about it. The obvious teams are out, and there is nothing the committee can do about that either. Then they look at who is left and cut deals to take the teams they prefer for various reasons. That was done by Saturday afternoon, as they told everyone. Then they spend Sunday to look at their categories to use for some nonsensical reasons to explain the backroom deals.

This is how they do it every year, there are no defined goal posts on purpose. Actually, there is, you can be a program that is obviously in or out. Which is why so many SJU fans have been shocked at what happened, SJU has been obviously out for ten years now, except for Mullins last year, but they got in that year. And guess what, that decision was very hard to defend logically. So, this is new to SJU fans.

It is what it is, it's not hard to figure out who the people with power in the backroom are, and the only way out is to get to the "obvious" category. I think Pitino is frustrated with the portal stuff but not especially worried about how the bubble works. If he can't get SJU consistently past that category I think he would look for the exits. His sights are much higher than that.
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We got the bid in 2019 because the Duke AD was on the committee and was an advocate for his buddy Cragg.
 
johnsliva said:
hoopshd.com

NCAA Tournament Selection Committee

The 2025-2026 Selection Committee (the year the term is up is in parenthesis): KEITH GILL (2026) – Sun Belt Commissioner (Chairperson) MARK COYLE (2026) – Minnesota Athletic Direct…
hoopshd.com hoopshd.com

Committees

web1.ncaa.org web1.ncaa.org
Click to expand...

Thanks...Paul is no longer on it. So much for my theory. There's just not enough representation from our part of the country. I wonder who replaced her as she was on it from the MAAC. My guess is that Collier couldn't find partners to cut deals like when Kevin White from Duke helped us in 2019.

Dan Gavitt is a committee liaison...not sure what that means, but I'm sure he had no way to influence anyone.

The lesson here is that when a guy named Bubba (and from the South) is in charge, a northeast school better be in the top 25.
 
I am mostly joking but maybe not as I am demanding an investigation into Tennessee losing knowing they would get in and allowing Mississippi State to go from bubble to in the tournament, Florida Atlantic losing apparently being solidly in not affecting them which then allowed for another team in their conference in, North Carolina losing knowing they would make it to get NC State in. Those are the ones I can think of off the top of my head, could be more. I guess UConn and the big east didn't get the memo.
 
Random thought I had while watching the brackets released. When I saw Duke playing in Brooklyn as a 4 seed, I thought it would make a great event to slide us in as the 13 seed. By that time, I had already seen FAU as an 8 seed and thought......well, just maybe.

In any event, that would have been a sold-out blast. Too bad.
 
JohnnyFan said:
Random thought I had while watching the brackets released. When I saw Duke playing in Brooklyn as a 4 seed, I thought it would make a great event to slide us in as the 13 seed. By that time, I had already seen FAU as an 8 seed and thought......well, just maybe.

In any event, that would have been a sold-out blast. Too bad.
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They wouldn't want to set up Duke to lose in the first round so easily
 
Eric said:
I am mostly joking but maybe not as I am demanding an investigation into Tennessee losing knowing they would get in and allowing Mississippi State to go from bubble to in the tournament, Florida Atlantic losing apparently being solidly in not affecting them which then allowed for another team in their conference in, North Carolina losing knowing they would make it to get NC State in. Those are the ones I can think of off the top of my head, could be more. I guess UConn and the big east didn't get the memo.
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That's because the Big East Tournament is a huge deal, sellouts every night, and with enormous media coverage. Even as defending champion its clear how badly UConn wanted to win it. FAU was playing in some type of tune-up event in front of family and friends. They played like it.

Having been to about ten NCAA first round weekends I would never trade places with FAU. Not saying you would. If anyone is going to Brooklyn this weekend and also went to the Big East Tournament you will see which event is more exciting. Both are fun, yes, and it's great if your team is in both. But as Big East fans we are lucky to have a conference tournament that is fantastic stuff. Considering that all but 16 teams will be done by next Sunday anyway I would never trade being in the Big East for an occasional bubble bid.
 
IDRAFT said:
That's because the Big East Tournament is a huge deal, sellouts every night, and with enormous media coverage. Even as defending champion its clear how badly UConn wanted to win it. FAU was playing in some type of tune-up event in front of family and friends. They played like it.

Having been to about ten NCAA first round weekends I would never trade places with FAU. Not saying you would. If anyone is going to Brooklyn this weekend and also went to the Big East Tournament you will see which event is more exciting. Both are fun, yes, and it's great if your team is in both. But as Big East fans we are lucky to have a conference tournament that is fantastic stuff. Considering that all but 16 teams will be done by next Sunday anyway I would never trade being in the Big East for an occasional bubble bid.
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I hear ya loud and clear IDRAFT with those caps lol. I agree with you 100%.
 
OLV72 said:
What is your source for this list? Wiki has Rachelle Paul as a member. She moved from St Peters (MAAC) to Miami (ACC) after she was put on the committee. If she is still an active member, she would have a Conflict of Interest now that she works in the ACC. Virginia is the most controversial case.

I tried to confirm this by searching the NCAA site, but I could not find a listing of the members of this selection committee.
Click to expand...
That's because they are now all in hiding!
 
Someone on the discord looked into KPI more. It has to be the dumbest metric of all-time. The fact it's even approved by the NCAA is so disheartening, let alone definitely influenced the committee.

1710875285362.png

They score each game based on winning % of the opposing team and a couple other factors. Based on that, Purdue's win over Samford was rated higher than their wins against Arizona, Illinois, Wisconsin, Alabama, Marquette, etc.
 
dk423 said:
Someone on the discord looked into KPI more. It has to be the dumbest metric of all-time. The fact it's even approved by the NCAA is so disheartening, let alone definitely influenced the committee.

View attachment 2438

They score each game based on winning % of the opposing team and a couple other factors. Based on that, Purdue's win over Samford was rated higher than their wins against Arizona, Illinois, Wisconsin, Alabama, Marquette, etc.
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OMFG. Part of my brain just died.
 
dk423 said:
Someone on the discord looked into KPI more. It has to be the dumbest metric of all-time. The fact it's even approved by the NCAA is so disheartening, let alone definitely influenced the committee.

View attachment 2438

They score each game based on winning % of the opposing team and a couple other factors. Based on that, Purdue's win over Samford was rated higher than their wins against Arizona, Illinois, Wisconsin, Alabama, Marquette, etc.
Click to expand...
Lower than Tenn and Illinois but yes I get your point. FrankinGeneral on Twitter has been digging into this as well.
 
One kick in the balls with KPI:
Dayton is ranked 12th. Their best win was .805 @ Duquesne
St. John's best win, against Creighton, was only rated .740
 
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