Bubble Watch

room112 said:
I'm watching 24-3 Princeton getting blown out by 12-17 Brown in the Ivy League tournament. Assuming Princeton won't be in consideration for at large if they lose. Net is 48 but 0 Q1 wins.

Sidenote but had no idea this tournament was being played at Columbia University (I live a few blocks from their arena).
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Princeton won't be in the at large discussion with a loss today or tomorrow. One less thing to worry about at least
 
Queens_Ball said:
I’m not so sure the Big East gets in 6 (although I think they should) & I’m also not sure that St. John’s resume is clearly better than Hall or Providence. I think all 3 resumes are pretty close.

Some people here are referencing our NET as if it’s a reason to put us in over other teams but they’ve been pretty clear that NET doesn’t factor into deciding if a team is in the field or not. It can help with seeding once a team IS in but otherwise it’s just used for sorting Quad wins. So for example…it wouldn’t help us if they were deciding who gets in btwn us and Hall but what it could do is send them to Dayton instead of us if we’re both in. Just a reminder.
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What SJU has going in its favor is they have been hot and played the best team in the country and defending national champs tough.
 
dk423 said:


This is also why I still don't feel 100% comfortable yet. We're all assuming Providence is out. Unfortunately for them, I do think they're out because some of these wins will be discounted since Hopkins is out for the year. But, we really don't have more than one great win to hang our hat on.
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This is misleading. You can not view PC resume in its entirety. You have to view through the lens of what they are without Hopkins. Its still good, but not quite an NCAA team. They are 10-11 without Hopkins (including the game in which he was hurt). Yes, there are some good wins in there, but there also are 5 wins against DePaul and Georgetown. That makes them 5-11 without Hopkins against non-DePaul and Georgetown. 8 of the 11 losses are by 9 points or more.
 
Queens_Ball said:
I’m not so sure the Big East gets in 6 (although I think they should) & I’m also not sure that St. John’s resume is clearly better than Hall or Providence. I think all 3 resumes are pretty close.

Some people here are referencing our NET as if it’s a reason to put us in over other teams but they’ve been pretty clear that NET doesn’t factor into deciding if a team is in the field or not. It can help with seeding once a team IS in but otherwise it’s just used for sorting Quad wins. So for example…it wouldn’t help us if they were deciding who gets in btwn us and Hall but what it could do is send them to Dayton instead of us if we’re both in. Just a reminder.
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I’m also going to add to this that whether we like it or not we’re a fascinating bubble team because we’re sort of an indicator of how much the committee “means what they say.” A lot of the things that they say they don’t consider (or stopped considering) like: Last 10 Games, coming from a power conference, juicy storylines (Pitino), good showing in losses (aka eye test) etc We have all those things going for us. If they allow themselves to be humans affected by those things it helps us.

If they truly are going to lay these resumes out on a table and be robotic about it then that’s where I think we’re a coin flip (and potentially a little worse than coin flip odds)
 
IDRAFT said:
I disagree, again. Where is Villanova now? Nobody can say we would have surely beaten Marquette. They have now beaten Nova and Providence without Kolek. And we lost to them twice. It’s an enormous assumption to pencil in that win. On the other hand, we manhandled Seton Hall and battled UConn. Which assumes nothing, that happened.

I didn’t want revenge I wanted fifth as it means you were better than six other teams in your conference. And now I can’t help but notice that the team that got the six seed is dead and buried.
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We would have handled DePaul unlike how nova did. And we would have beaten Marquette. That scenario would have been better than a seton hall win and loss to UConn. Then we would have had another game to win vs providence. Clear as day to me.

Of course we would have needed to crush DePaul. And beat Marquette. Both of which I saw as happening.

And we wouldn’t be sweating out this scenario now.

That’s my point. The 6th seed being the better route. Allowed for more win opportunities along with Marquette being the higher ranked and rated team over seton hall as well.
 
kranmars said:
What SJU has going in its favor is they have been hot and played the best team in the country and defending national champs tough.
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Totally but (and I just posted before I saw this apologies) they claim they got rid of recent performance. Believe they used to have your record in your last 10 games on your team sheet. They say that’s not a factor anymore. They say that…but we’ll see 🤞

Edited to add…Other things to keep in mind that are small but may matter considering how tight it appears…Pitino (and Dingle) had Covid in the game Seton Hall beat us by 15. They’re supposed to consider that (not sure how heavily they weigh that) and our only truly bad loss to Michigan by 16 was only the 2nd game of the year. They’re NOT supposed to care that it’s the 2nd game but.. 🤷‍♂️ It’s ultimately a roomful of people making choices and these are things people arguing for us can/will bring up if it’s down to us or another school.
 
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My final point on the 5/6 seed thing is this.

I just think we are not in the oh shit position we are in if we beat DePaul then Marquette. Vs beat seton hall. Lose to UConn. And we have more opportunity to keep winning before getting to UConn.
 
One more thing that I hope the committee keeps in mind. This is a championship event, not a showcase. I understand wanting to use resumes to evaluate teams, but this is about figuring out who the best teams are right now. Yes, two weeks can not and should not erase 4 months, but if its close, then it should be about the teams you feel have the best chance to advance.
 
The committee has said they are factoring in Indiana State's injury to one of their starters in a couple of their losses as well as the fact they are factoring in us missing Pitino for the first SHU loss. I don't know how they measure those things but I think it would be safe to assume Providence is out based on the fact that Hopkins is out and they've played less than stellar without him. Was almost 15 years ago at this point but they did say they dropped us a seed line in 2011 because of the DJ injury.

The committee is always good for throwing at least one curveball. Very rarely does the bracket matrix correctly predict 68/68 teams so they may do something unforeseen like put Indiana State or Pitt over someone like us.

Another thing to note is the past few years the committee has essentially disregarded the Saturday & Sunday results in terms of placement or seeding aside from the autobids that are determined those days and the ramifications from those. What that means for us this year I have no idea.

Really is a shame we choose the best bubble year maybe ever to be in this position and that we've gotten little help over the past couple days. Hoping for the best but ready for a gut-wrenching day tomorrow
 
Bracketmatrix updated for today: http://bracketmatrix.com/

We’re currently IN and the top team in Dayton. They also have seton hall, NM, and Virginia in behind us. Seems like anything from a 10 seed to out is possible. Definitely have to root against bid stealers today and tomorrow.
 
mattc said:


Great breakdown here. I think we’re last four in with New Mexico, maybe Texas AM and ?
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I don’t know how you evaluate A&M’s bad losses but I’d definitely have them out. Their wins aren’t strong enough IMO to make up for those losses
 
Hardy said:
I don’t know how you evaluate A&M’s bad losses but I’d definitely have them out. Their wins aren’t strong enough IMO to make up for those losses
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Gotta pick 4 of those 8 teams lol someone’s gotta be in.
 
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