Bubble Watch

There is nothing more we can do. I think we acquitted ourselves very nicely in the BET. Beat a bubble team Seton Hall easily and played hard and hung with the #2 NET team. I don't care who or where we play but I know we are better than these Dayton teams.
Not a bracketologist but imho no way Big East gets only 4 in. We’re definitely in as the fifth, and I don’t think as the last 4 in. Someone else is going to have to be disappointed this year.
 
According to this, only 4 teams from the Big East get in???? Not likely.
Not only likely, but probable. And 3 from the ACC.

Big East will get UConm, Marquette, Creighton and (I think) SJU. Hopefully the committee does not prefer Providence or the Hall, depends how they assess the resumes. But SJU has pole position, I think.

ACC will get UNC, Duke and Clemson.

UVa, Pitt, Seton Hall, Providence all out.

Game to watch is New Mexico vs SDSU. If New Mexico plays their way in then I think someone else somewhere is at risk of falling off the bubble.

Crunch time.
 
For today a handful of games matter to us:

Florida over Texas A&M - A&M is likely in but perhaps with a loss here it makes them a candidate for Dayton again. Never know what the committee is thinking so let’s go Clayton Jr


FAU over Temple - FAU is two wins away from creating an extra bubble spot (USF is listed as auto bid on most brackets), they get to play Cinderella story Temple who have been investigated for point shaving this year but are now making a run in the AAC tourney


San Diego St over New Mexico - this one’s obvious, NM is right near us on the bubble so I’d love a loss here


UNC over NC state - Tar Heels can save the bubble from shrinking a spot

Colorado over Oregon - the Buffaloes can do the same

Great post. Agree 100%
 
Ughhh tonight’s going to be interesting

Nathalie “ I thought you went to the St. John’s game last night “

Me “ I did “

Nathalie “ so what the hell are you watching that’s not the Knick’s or rangers “

Me “ I’m watching these basketball games rooting for teams to lose to help St. John’s get in the tournament “

Nat “ but you said after the seton hall game you were in “

Me “ I did but…. “

Nat “ are these your internet friends freaking you out right now “

Me “ yeah but….. “

Nathalie “ no but…. Let’s go out to dinner somewhere without a tv “
Hysterical. And so true!!! We all were so amped up after the seton hall win…..
 
I don’t think that helps us. If Marquette plays well they are a 2 seed. If the big east gets a 1 (UConn) a 2 (Marquette) and a 3 (Creighton), I think it’s very hard to rationalize leaving SJU and Seton Hall out.
My only metric using the paranoid redfan freakout factor is we lost by 5 if Marquette loses by 40 that makes our loss look better. In no way am I saying it Makes sense but this thread is based on irrationality:)
 
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Ughhh tonight’s going to be interesting

Nathalie “ I thought you went to the St. John’s game last night “

Me “ I did “

Nathalie “ so what the hell are you watching that’s not the Knick’s or rangers “

Me “ I’m watching these basketball games rooting for teams to lose to help St. John’s get in the tournament “

Nat “ but you said after the seton hall game you were in “

Me “ I did but…. “

Nat “ are these your internet friends freaking you out right now “

Me “ yeah but….. “

Nathalie “ no but…. Let’s go out to dinner somewhere without a tv “
What makes this funnier is that when you are with someone for so long, you know this is pretty much word for word how the discussion will go.
 
The fact that we are still on the bubble after seton hall win and UConn loss is the reason why taking the path of 6 seed beating DePaul and follow up that with a win against Marquette getting that extra win (not the way nova won) we would have been in much better position.

But I do recall many wanted revenge against the hall. I hope you guys can see the 6th seed was the path of better chances.
I disagree, again. Where is Villanova now? Nobody can say we would have surely beaten Marquette. They have now beaten Nova and Providence without Kolek. And we lost to them twice. It’s an enormous assumption to pencil in that win. On the other hand, we manhandled Seton Hall and battled UConn. Which assumes nothing, that happened.

I didn’t want revenge I wanted fifth as it means you were better than six other teams in your conference. And now I can’t help but notice that the team that got the six seed is dead and buried.
 
Texas A&M is a fascinating case study. Their resume is a complete dichotomy. They have 13 Q1+2 wins, including 6 Q1. I'm not sure i have ever seen a bubble team with that many Q1+2. And then you have those 5 Q3 losses. 4 of these were at home and the other one was at Vanderbilt which is basically like losing at Georgetown.
 
I’m not so sure the Big East gets in 6 (although I think they should) & I’m also not sure that St. John’s resume is clearly better than Hall or Providence. I think all 3 resumes are pretty close.

Some people here are referencing our NET as if it’s a reason to put us in over other teams but they’ve been pretty clear that NET doesn’t factor into deciding if a team is in the field or not. It can help with seeding once a team IS in but otherwise it’s just used for sorting Quad wins. So for example…it wouldn’t help us if they were deciding who gets in btwn us and Hall but what it could do is send them to Dayton instead of us if we’re both in. Just a reminder.
 
I disagree, again. Where is Villanova now? Nobody can say we would have surely beaten Marquette. They have now beaten Nova and Providence without Kolek. And we lost to them twice. It’s an enormous assumption to pencil in that win. On the other hand, we manhandled Seton Hall and battled UConn. Which assumes nothing, that happened.

I didn’t want revenge I wanted fifth as it means you were better than six other teams in your conference. And now I can’t help but notice that the team that got the six seed is dead and buried.
This selection stuff gets out of hand easily . For no apparent reason , I was thinking Tennessee lost big to Miss Stare but , are what , ranked 5 th? And , my State team also lost big SCarolina to Auburn .
Both , Losing schools have impressive resumes . Hard to leave them out .
Jus to drive some even more nuts is this . PC won 2 games in BET , including win over Nationally ranked Creighton . And , played hard against Marquette . Do their 2 Tourney wins plus a 3 rd game against Nationally ranked MQ do them better than our 1 win over SH ?
This frightening thought gnawed at me this morning .

There are just too many variables at work to make sense of this . Beyond our own calculations that have / want us in the Madness .

It can go so many other ways too , if we miss , we all will wilt like Azaleas in May .

Let’s hope we prevail .
 
I'm watching 24-3 Princeton getting blown out by 12-17 Brown in the Ivy League tournament. Assuming Princeton won't be in consideration for at large if they lose. Net is 48 but 0 Q1 wins.

Sidenote but had no idea this tournament was being played at Columbia University (I live a few blocks from their arena).
 
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