Bubble Watch

dk423 said:
I'm guessing what it means is, we would likely be in but if there are unforeseen bid thieves, we could still be vulnerable to be out.
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Yeah, he's being foggy with the middle group as he's not sure if they're win and in or will need to win 2 due to unforseen variables.
 
BartTorvik has a cool feature that shows you a team's 10 most similar resumes of teams from the past and if they got a bid, the seed they got, and how far they went in the tournament.

www.barttorvik.com

Compare Tourney Resumes - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.
www.barttorvik.com

SJU - 9 of the 10 most similar resumes have made the tournament
Miss State (Largely considered to be safe right now) - 6/10
Seton Hall - 8/10
Virginia - 8/10
Colorado - 9/10
Indiana State - 5/10
New Mexico - 8/10
Villanova - 7/10
Iowa - 2/10
Providence - 3/10
Pitt - 8/10
Texas AM - 9/10

This may be the strongest bubble ever
 
weathermannyc said:
Dude, please put down whatever you are drinking. :);)o_O:D:oops: We could beat Seton Hall, UConn and Creighton by 50 points each and we are getting nowhere near a 5 seed.
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I thought you would say we should be higher if we did. Well I can’t wait to see where we land when we accomplish this. I hope we do just to see where we land.
 
MugCostanza said:
BartTorvik has a cool feature that shows you a team's 10 most similar resumes of teams from the past and if they got a bid, the seed they got, and how far they went in the tournament.

www.barttorvik.com

Compare Tourney Resumes - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.
www.barttorvik.com

SJU - 9 of the 10 most similar resumes have made the tournament
Miss State (Largely considered to be safe right now) - 6/10
Seton Hall - 8/10
Virginia - 8/10
Colorado - 9/10
Indiana State - 5/10
New Mexico - 8/10
Villanova - 7/10
Iowa - 2/10
Providence - 3/10
Pitt - 8/10
Texas AM - 9/10

This may be the strongest bubble ever
Click to expand...

If any team in the country is likely to be the 1 out of 10.....it is "we are St John's"....
 
dk423 said:
Honestly, if we beat a bubble team, #2 team in the country, and then another top 10 team, why wouldn't we be a ranked team heading into the tournament?
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That is something completely different. We could end up ranked, but more likely just receiving votes. But, that has zero impact on seeding. The committee is not going to let you pass 20-25 teams in 3 days. They don't put that much emphasis on the conference tournaments. Remember the first year of the new Big East in 2014. Providence was on the bubble when they faced us in the 4-5 game, perhaps in hindsight in the first 4 or next 4 out. They beat us, Seton Hall and Creighton to win the conference tournament. Now, the Big East was not as good that year as it is this year. But, Creighton was still very highly regarded with Doug McDermitt. Providence was awarded an 11 seed in the NCAAs.
 
weathermannyc said:
That is something completely different. We could end up ranked, but more likely just receiving votes. But, that has zero impact on seeding. The committee is not going to let you pass 20-25 teams in 3 days. They don't put that much emphasis on the conference tournaments. Remember the first year of the new Big East in 2014. Providence was on the bubble when they faced us in the 4-5 game, perhaps in hindsight in the first 4 or next 4 out. They beat us, Seton Hall and Creighton to win the conference tournament. Now, the Big East was not as good that year as it is this year. But, Creighton was still very highly regarded with Doug McDermitt. Providence was awarded an 11 seed in the NCAAs.
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If they had beaten Nova that year instead of SHU, it'd be an almost perfect parallel example. I also think this year there isn't much separating the Last Four In and a 9/10 seed -- let alone last four byes.

Definitely a good point though.
 
weathermannyc said:
That is something completely different. We could end up ranked, but more likely just receiving votes. But, that has zero impact on seeding. The committee is not going to let you pass 20-25 teams in 3 days. They don't put that much emphasis on the conference tournaments. Remember the first year of the new Big East in 2014. Providence was on the bubble when they faced us in the 4-5 game, perhaps in hindsight in the first 4 or next 4 out. They beat us, Seton Hall and Creighton to win the conference tournament. Now, the Big East was not as good that year as it is this year. But, Creighton was still very highly regarded with Doug McDermitt. Providence was awarded an 11 seed in the NCAAs.
Click to expand...
Man I hope we run through the big east just to prove my seeding.
 
I was just talking to Wendell and we were discussing our chances with various scenarios. Somehow the conversation went to last year and NC versus NC State. NC did not get in and NC St did. This is a fascinating case between two fairly similar resumes and I feel like it is relevant to us this year since a good portion of the committee membership is the same.


NC St: preferred by result based metrics, NET 45, Q1: 1-7, Q2 7-4; SOS 78, NCSOS 246
NC: preferred by predictive metrics, NET 46, Q1 1-9, Q2: 6-4; SOS 49, NCSOS 18

Plenty of other things to digest here. Will let everyone navigate the rest
 
Not the most exciting bubble night, but I think the main games to keep an eye on:
1. Root for Hofstra over Stony Brook in the CAA semis (8:30 PM CBSSN). We've beat both team, but Hofstra is better and would be more likely to win the finals. Also may want to root for Towson over Charleston as that'd give Hofstra/SB an easier game (Towson is up by 3 on CBSSN).
2. Root for Saint Mary's (9:00 PM ESPN) and Gonzaga (11:30 ESPN 2) to win their WCC semis to ensure no WCC bid thief.
 
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