Other than Nova and Creighton, Georgetown has the best resume of the rest of the mediocrities in the Big East. Look at the comparative records of Xavier, Providence, SJU and Georgetown against top 25 and top 50 competition.
Georgetown's problem is that they don't have quite enough wins. However if they get to 19 then they have a better case than SJU or Providence at 22. That's why every analyst has them in better position than SJU or Providence and close to Xavier.
IMO the BE could go anywhere from 2-4 teams. Xavier needs one win, SJU, Providence and Georgetown all need 2. If none of the four second-level teams get what they need, it ought to be a 2-bid league (though the NCAA might have to take another one just because they have to fill the field).
I think it will come down to whether SJU or Providence can knock off Nova. I'm predicting Georgetown to march to the finals and Xavier to flame out. That would ultimately make the league bids Nova, Creighton, and Georgetown. Add SJU or Providence if one of them beats Nova.