BRACKETOLOGY, RPI, SOS

[salty dog]

This thread is starting to look like my comments from more than a month ago that the BE was a 2 bid league, 3 tops. There were those who thought it was a 5 or 6 bid league, which IMHO was always ridiculous. I think the BET will sort out whether it is 3 or 4 bid league. Nova and Creighton are in. Xavier can do enough to lock up a spot without winning the tournament. The question is whether a fourth team out of SJU, Providence, Georgetown or Marquette will jump up and win the league tournament to grab a fourth bid. If one of those teams reaches the championship game after beating Creighton or Nova and the bubble breaks right elsewhere then they might be the fourth team even without winning the championship, but I wouldn't count on it.

We'll know soon enough. From a St John's perspective, the only way to eliminate all doubt is to win the league tournament. Anything else and we will be sweating - the only question is how much.

The LMF fearless forecast is that we lose to Marquette, win 2 games in the league tournament, lose in the championship game, and then sweat it out on selection day. I think Nova gets a 3 seed, Creighton gets a 5 seed, Xavier gets a 10 seed, and if another BE team gets in then it is an 11 or 12 seed. That's my "out on a limb" for the day.

Are there any doctors out there?
Lawman hurt himself patting himself on the back too hard.

Does he take credit when the league gets four invites? Seems like he is asking for it.

 

[lawmanfan]

Are there any doctors out there?
Lawman hurt himself patting himself on the back too hard.

I'll settle for Doc Butler

 

[tom in salem]

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/St.%20John's.html

Oh what could have been.
A Penn St. victory would have made our RPI #50.
Damn, that was a huge loss.

Not really. We would still have to beat Ole Miss which Penn State did not do. We beat Georgia Tech so the win total would be the same.
Do you think they would have beaten Ole Miss?

Not accoring to this.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/St. John's.html

 

[montyaloofah]

SI's take

St. John's (19-11, RPI: 61, SOS: 40): A crushing defeat at the hands of Xavier likely put the Red Storm in a position where they must win the Big East tournament to get in the big dance. They have just one top-50 win, which is half as many losses as they have to teams ranked outside the top 100.

 

[Marillac]

we are 1-7 vs. the top 50. we will need to win the big east tournament and be an auto qualifier - no way we get a bid with the current resume' as an at large qualifier.

so the marquette game really isnt a "must win" rather the big east tournament is.

Correction, we are 1-5 v. the top EIGHT and 0-2 v. teams 9-50. I hate that our six games against top eight RPI teams gets put into the top 50 category. We could have played eight games v. teams ranked 40-50 and done much better.

 

[Moose]

we are 1-7 vs. the top 50. we will need to win the big east tournament and be an auto qualifier - no way we get a bid with the current resume' as an at large qualifier.

so the marquette game really isnt a "must win" rather the big east tournament is.

Correction, we are 1-5 v. the top EIGHT and 0-2 v. teams 9-50. I hate that our six games against top eight RPI teams gets put into the top 50 category. We could have played eight games v. teams ranked 40-50 and done much better.

Interesting

 

[room112]

we are 1-7 vs. the top 50. we will need to win the big east tournament and be an auto qualifier - no way we get a bid with the current resume' as an at large qualifier.

so the marquette game really isnt a "must win" rather the big east tournament is.

Correction, we are 1-5 v. the top EIGHT and 0-2 v. teams 9-50. I hate that our six games against top eight RPI teams gets put into the top 50 category. We could have played eight games v. teams ranked 40-50 and done much better.

I wonder if that will be considered, but it seems the networks all prefer the neat package of "rpi 1-50" like anything broken down more is too much for Joe Six Pack to handle.

I was on one site, forget which one, who broke it down record was rpi 1-25 and 26-50.

 

[Marillac]

we are 1-7 vs. the top 50. we will need to win the big east tournament and be an auto qualifier - no way we get a bid with the current resume' as an at large qualifier.

so the marquette game really isnt a "must win" rather the big east tournament is.

Correction, we are 1-5 v. the top EIGHT and 0-2 v. teams 9-50. I hate that our six games against top eight RPI teams gets put into the top 50 category. We could have played eight games v. teams ranked 40-50 and done much better.

I wonder if that will be considered, but it seems the networks all prefer the neat package of "rpi 1-50" like anything broken down more is too much for Joe Six Pack to handle.

I was on one site, forget which one, who broke it down record was rpi 1-25 and 26-50.

Even top 25 is not fair to our schedule. What is the incentive of playing six top eight teams if they are going to count the same as Nebraska or BYU? We are the only team in the country with six games against top eight RPI schools...that needs to be looked at closely. If you are top 25 school, how many top eight teams should you beat out of six...one or two? We lost on a single shot in two games, won one, and kept every game close. We had the lead in 5/6 with under five minutes left. This team can play against anyone. Can Nebraska? Doubtful.

I think the Big East will garner a closer look on selection Sunday. It might not be murderer's row, but 70% of or our league can advance in the tournament. Damn, even Seton Hall would strike fear in some tournament teams.

 

[simplyred]

we are 1-7 vs. the top 50. we will need to win the big east tournament and be an auto qualifier - no way we get a bid with the current resume' as an at large qualifier.

so the marquette game really isnt a "must win" rather the big east tournament is.

Correction, we are 1-5 v. the top EIGHT and 0-2 v. teams 9-50. I hate that our six games against top eight RPI teams gets put into the top 50 category. We could have played eight games v. teams ranked 40-50 and done much better.

I wonder if that will be considered, but it seems the networks all prefer the neat package of "rpi 1-50" like anything broken down more is too much for Joe Six Pack to handle.

I was on one site, forget which one, who broke it down record was rpi 1-25 and 26-50.

Even top 25 is not fair to our schedule. What is the incentive of playing six top eight teams if they are going to count the same as Nebraska or BYU? We are the only team in the country with six games against top eight RPI schools...that needs to be looked at closely. If you are top 25 school, how many top eight teams should you beat out of six...one or two? We lost on a single shot in two games, won one, and kept every game close. We had the lead in 5/6 with under five minutes left. This team can play against anyone. Can Nebraska? Doubtful.

I think the Big East will garner a closer look on selection Sunday. It might not be murderer's row, but 70% of or our league can advance in the tournament. Damn, even Seton Hall would strike fear in some tournament teams.

+100

 

[room112]

we are 1-7 vs. the top 50. we will need to win the big east tournament and be an auto qualifier - no way we get a bid with the current resume' as an at large qualifier.

so the marquette game really isnt a "must win" rather the big east tournament is.

Correction, we are 1-5 v. the top EIGHT and 0-2 v. teams 9-50. I hate that our six games against top eight RPI teams gets put into the top 50 category. We could have played eight games v. teams ranked 40-50 and done much better.

I wonder if that will be considered, but it seems the networks all prefer the neat package of "rpi 1-50" like anything broken down more is too much for Joe Six Pack to handle.

I was on one site, forget which one, who broke it down record was rpi 1-25 and 26-50.

Even top 25 is not fair to our schedule. What is the incentive of playing six top eight teams if they are going to count the same as Nebraska or BYU? We are the only team in the country with six games against top eight RPI schools...that needs to be looked at closely. If you are top 25 school, how many top eight teams should you beat out of six...one or two? We lost on a single shot in two games, won one, and kept every game close. We had the lead in 5/6 with under five minutes left. This team can play against anyone. Can Nebraska? Doubtful.

I think the Big East will garner a closer look on selection Sunday. It might not be murderer's row, but 70% of or our league can advance in the tournament. Damn, even Seton Hall would strike fear in some tournament teams.

I think this needs to be publicized somewhere. Seems like something Lavin would be quoted on in the paper, lobbying his case. Maybe the fact that the Big East is #3 in RPI will force the committee to give us a closer look.

 

[logen]

we are 1-7 vs. the top 50. we will need to win the big east tournament and be an auto qualifier - no way we get a bid with the current resume' as an at large qualifier.

so the marquette game really isnt a "must win" rather the big east tournament is.

Correction, we are 1-5 v. the top EIGHT and 0-2 v. teams 9-50. I hate that our six games against top eight RPI teams gets put into the top 50 category. We could have played eight games v. teams ranked 40-50 and done much better.

I wonder if that will be considered, but it seems the networks all prefer the neat package of "rpi 1-50" like anything broken down more is too much for Joe Six Pack to handle.

I was on one site, forget which one, who broke it down record was rpi 1-25 and 26-50.

Even top 25 is not fair to our schedule. What is the incentive of playing six top eight teams if they are going to count the same as Nebraska or BYU? We are the only team in the country with six games against top eight RPI schools...that needs to be looked at closely. If you are top 25 school, how many top eight teams should you beat out of six...one or two? We lost on a single shot in two games, won one, and kept every game close. We had the lead in 5/6 with under five minutes left. This team can play against anyone. Can Nebraska? Doubtful.

I think the Big East will garner a closer look on selection Sunday. It might not be murderer's row, but 70% of or our league can advance in the tournament. Damn, even Seton Hall would strike fear in some tournament teams.

All the mathematical machinations aside, as Herm said - you play to win the game!! We lost those games and have no one to blame but ourselves if we don't make the tournament. Using the "smell test" only, IMO we have played like a borderline tourney team and that's exactly where we are. We still have a chance and I believe we are more than we have played this year. Maybe we finish the year as I thought we should have started and played all year; like a legitimate top 20 team. If we do there is no reason we cannot win the BET and analytical surmising be damned. But it takes a real committment to playing D and sharing the ball; a committment we were willing to make for only a relatively short stretch of the season.

 

[Andrew]

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/St.%20John's.html

Oh what could have been.
A Penn St. victory would have made our RPI #50.
Damn, that was a huge loss.

Not really. We would still have to beat Ole Miss which Penn State did not do. We beat Georgia Tech so the win total would be the same.
Do you think they would have beaten Ole Miss?

Not accoring to this.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/St. John's.html

That wizard is pretty cool.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

we are 1-7 vs. the top 50. we will need to win the big east tournament and be an auto qualifier - no way we get a bid with the current resume' as an at large qualifier.

so the marquette game really isnt a "must win" rather the big east tournament is.

Correction, we are 1-5 v. the top EIGHT and 0-2 v. teams 9-50. I hate that our six games against top eight RPI teams gets put into the top 50 category. We could have played eight games v. teams ranked 40-50 and done much better.

However you want to spin it, we are 1-7 against the Top 50. Thats the criteria the selection committee will review when they look at our body of work. That's a fact. Which means we had very little room for error with the rest of the schedule, and losses to Depaul and Penn State and being swept vs. Xavier have all but sealed our fate as an NIT team unless we can win the Big East.

Any other team on the bubble is looking at SJU's resume and saying exactly what I am saying...1-7 top 50, losses to DePaul and Penn State. The negatives outweigh the positives...by a lot if you look closely and we do not deserve an NCAA bid.

I love SJU more than anyone, but simply put this team has underachieved immensely and they dont deserve a bid with this body of work.

 

[Mike]

We can look at all the numbers we want, but I really think we need to win @ Marq and go to the Big East finals to make the tournament. There are too many teams to close and we have to expect at least 2 unexpected teams winning their conference.

 

[redmen2014champs]

we are 1-7 vs. the top 50. we will need to win the big east tournament and be an auto qualifier - no way we get a bid with the current resume' as an at large qualifier.

so the marquette game really isnt a "must win" rather the big east tournament is.

Correction, we are 1-5 v. the top EIGHT and 0-2 v. teams 9-50. I hate that our six games against top eight RPI teams gets put into the top 50 category. We could have played eight games v. teams ranked 40-50 and done much better.

However you want to spin it, we are 1-7 against the Top 50. Thats the criteria the selection committee will review when they look at our body of work. That's a fact. Which means we had very little room for error with the rest of the schedule, and losses to Depaul and Penn State and being swept vs. Xavier have all but sealed our fate as an NIT team unless we can win the Big East.

Any other team on the bubble is looking at SJU's resume and saying exactly what I am saying...1-7 top 50, losses to DePaul and Penn State. The negatives outweigh the positives...by a lot if you look closely and we do not deserve an NCAA bid.

I love SJU more than anyone, but simply put this team has underachieved immensely and they dont deserve a bid with this body of work.

Maybe you are right but what exactly are you basing your statement, "that is a fact" on? Is it written in a rule book somewhere that the committee looks at record against 1-50 without regard for the "fact" that 6 of those 8 were against top 10 teams? Have you spoken to committee members? Just want to understand why you are so sure that they don't treat the schedule in a fair way and don't see the difference between a top 10 team and a 49th rated team.

 

[MJDinkins]

we are 1-7 vs. the top 50. we will need to win the big east tournament and be an auto qualifier - no way we get a bid with the current resume' as an at large qualifier.

so the marquette game really isnt a "must win" rather the big east tournament is.

Correction, we are 1-5 v. the top EIGHT and 0-2 v. teams 9-50. I hate that our six games against top eight RPI teams gets put into the top 50 category. We could have played eight games v. teams ranked 40-50 and done much better.

However you want to spin it, we are 1-7 against the Top 50. Thats the criteria the selection committee will review when they look at our body of work. That's a fact. Which means we had very little room for error with the rest of the schedule, and losses to Depaul and Penn State and being swept vs. Xavier have all but sealed our fate as an NIT team unless we can win the Big East.

Any other team on the bubble is looking at SJU's resume and saying exactly what I am saying...1-7 top 50, losses to DePaul and Penn State. The negatives outweigh the positives...by a lot if you look closely and we do not deserve an NCAA bid.

I love SJU more than anyone, but simply put this team has underachieved immensely and they dont deserve a bid with this body of work.

Maybe you are right but what exactly are you basing your statement, "that is a fact" on? Is it written in a rule book somewhere that the committee looks at record against 1-50 without regard for the "fact" that 6 of those 8 were against top 10 teams? Have you spoken to committee members? Just want to understand why you are so sure that they don't treat the schedule in a fair way and don't see the difference between a top 10 team and a 49th rated team.

He doesn't know. He's just speaking in absolute.

 

[ccnobz]

You all know from reading my posts I was behind us making a run, I even called the 6 game winning streak. But lets be fair we need to beat Marq and make it to the BE finals to get a at large bid. That Xaxier loss was a killer.

 

[Mean Gene]

The Creighton loss to Georgetown was a killer also. We need to win the next three games, get to the finals of the BET and get to 22 wins to get an at large bid. Providence is up 8 on Marquette right now also.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

What are the riveting arguments you guys can give for SJU to get an at-large bid then?

Its not about top 50 record....okay then, well our SOS is not as good as it's been in the past, we have an RPI in the 60s now, losses to depaul and penn state, 3-5 on the road....we really do not have much to hang our hats on.

Even in 2002 when we were a "bubble" team we won against Wake Forest, UConn, Miami, ND and BC twice....all NCAA teams. We were 20-11 entering the NCAAs and we got a 9 seed that year.

There is no body this year even close to that, the Big East is not as strong, we have a win against a good Creighton team and two bubble wins vs PC and GT.

What on the resume gets us in? I say leave no doubts and just win the Big east.

 

[Mean Gene]

What are the riveting arguments you guys can give for SJU to get an at-large bid then?

Its not about top 50 record....okay then, well our SOS is not as good as it's been in the past, we have an RPI in the 60s now, losses to depaul and penn state, 3-5 on the road....we really do not have much to hang our hats on.

Even in 2002 when we were a "bubble" team we won against Wake Forest, UConn, Miami, ND and BC twice....all NCAA teams. We were 20-11 entering the NCAAs and we got a 9 seed that year.

There is no body this year even close to that, the Big East is not as strong, we have a win against a good Creighton team and two bubble wins vs PC and GT.

What on the resume gets us in? I say leave no doubts and just win the Big east.

I have to agree Avon. Especially since nothing seems to be falling our way with respect to these other bubble teams. Even the strong teams that were on our schedule like Cuse and Creighton are losing some games and deteriorating our RPI.