BRACKETOLOGY, RPI, SOS

[paultzman]

@KieranDarcy: @ESPNLunardi gives St. John's (#SJUBB) a 40 percent chance to earn an at-large bid:http://t.co/N7Ig1wyoTu via @espncbb

 

[ccnobz]

Lunardi just updated his, has us listed under First 4 out.

He has Minnesota ahead of us in his Last in. The gophers are 7-10 in conference and have lost 4 of six. No way they get in over us.

I hope not but they are in a tougher league, have a better Rpi (47) and have 3 wins vs our 1 against the Top 50 Rpi.

 

[austour]

Lunacy, Gtown has 12 losses and will have 13 by selection time. 12/13 is the boarder for getting in, in all the years of watching.
Johnnie's can only have one more loss the rest of the way or it's over.

I guarantee you GTown would get in with 13 losses because it means one of two things, either they swept Creighton and Nova this week would would show a strong finish, a .500 conference record, and a 5-5 regular season record against the top 50 before losing at some point in the conference tourney, OR they only won one of those games but won the conference tournament and got the automatic bid.

I don't see either of those things happennig so we'll never settle that bet but just saying.

 

[postell25]

There is no such thing as play in games anymore guys, no matter what you choose to believe if they are part of the field of 68 they are in the dance.

It's a play in game just like we're the Redmen.

LOL

Seriously though, they were play in games when it was the lowest 4 seeds playing for 2 x 16 seeds but not you have teams playing for 11 seeds and 12 seeds. Not nearly the same thing. So play in games are dead but the Redmen will never die!

Sure it is. Regardless of the seed they'll get, those teams are playing to get in to the field of 64. I cannot think of it any other way.

Actually all 4 games should be with the 11/12 seed line. Those 16 seeds already earned their way in by winning their conference tournament. But that's for a different thread.

 

[88grad]

As of right now Lunardi has Providence and St. Johns as "Last Four In"

What I believe would be best for us right now is that Marquette beats Providence on Tuesday. The loss might knock Providence into First Four Out.

Then St. John's can top off a 20-game-win season by beating Marquette on Saturday.

more importantly for people too lazy to figure out like myself are we locked in on a potential seeding yet for the BET ?

Nah, we're not locked in yet when it comes to conference tournament seeding. We can't finish any lower than 6th, but we can still finish, as high as 4th.

If we lose to Marquette and Georgetown wins their last 2, we would both end up 9-9. Could we then end up as the 7 seed and have to play on Wednesday? (Gtown would have split with Nova and Creighton and we split with Creighton but got swept by Nova).

 

[SJU61982]

As of right now Lunardi has Providence and St. Johns as "Last Four In"

What I believe would be best for us right now is that Marquette beats Providence on Tuesday. The loss might knock Providence into First Four Out.

Then St. John's can top off a 20-game-win season by beating Marquette on Saturday.

more importantly for people too lazy to figure out like myself are we locked in on a potential seeding yet for the BET ?

Nah, we're not locked in yet when it comes to conference tournament seeding. We can't finish any lower than 6th, but we can still finish, as high as 4th.

If we lose to Marquette and Georgetown wins their last 2, we would both end up 9-9. Could we then end up as the 7 seed and have to play on Wednesday? (Gtown would have split with Nova and Creighton and we split with Creighton but got swept by Nova).

I believe so. Can't see Gtown winning both of these games though.

Actually, a 7 seed probably gives you a better chance at an at-large bid. You'd get an extra game, albiet against a bad oppoent, but it still ups your win total by 1, which never hurts. Win that, and if the rest of the seeds hold, you could have the chance to take out one of Creighton or Nova in the quarters, then likely Xavier in the semis, and that would almost certianly do it.

Ideally, I don't want to play on Wednesday, because the odds of all that I said happening are slim, but it's just a thought.

 

[austour]

There is no such thing as play in games anymore guys, no matter what you choose to believe if they are part of the field of 68 they are in the dance.

It's a play in game just like we're the Redmen.

LOL

Seriously though, they were play in games when it was the lowest 4 seeds playing for 2 x 16 seeds but not you have teams playing for 11 seeds and 12 seeds. Not nearly the same thing. So play in games are dead but the Redmen will never die!

Sure it is. Regardless of the seed they'll get, those teams are playing to get in to the field of 64. I cannot think of it any other way.

Actually all 4 games should be with the 11/12 seed line. Those 16 seeds already earned their way in by winning their conference tournament. But that's for a different thread.

Whatever keeps you awake at night have at it. I'm just going by the NCAA definitions.

 

[austour]

As of right now Lunardi has Providence and St. Johns as "Last Four In"

What I believe would be best for us right now is that Marquette beats Providence on Tuesday. The loss might knock Providence into First Four Out.

Then St. John's can top off a 20-game-win season by beating Marquette on Saturday.

more importantly for people too lazy to figure out like myself are we locked in on a potential seeding yet for the BET ?

Nah, we're not locked in yet when it comes to conference tournament seeding. We can't finish any lower than 6th, but we can still finish, as high as 4th.

If we lose to Marquette and Georgetown wins their last 2, we would both end up 9-9. Could we then end up as the 7 seed and have to play on Wednesday? (Gtown would have split with Nova and Creighton and we split with Creighton but got swept by Nova).

I believe so. Can't see Gtown winning both of these games though.

Actually, a 7 seed probably gives you a better chance at an at-large bid. You'd get an extra game, albiet against a bad oppoent, but it still ups your win total by 1, which never hurts. Win that, and if the rest of the seeds hold, you could have the chance to take out one of Creighton or Nova in the quarters, then likely Xavier in the semis, and that would almost certianly do it.

Ideally, I don't want to play on Wednesday, because the odds of all that I said happening are slim, but it's just a thought.

A 7 seed wouldn't help STJ. If they lose to Marquette they have to win the tournament, that's the only way they'd get in. Would have to win 4. Not likely.

 

[SJU61982]

As of right now Lunardi has Providence and St. Johns as "Last Four In"

What I believe would be best for us right now is that Marquette beats Providence on Tuesday. The loss might knock Providence into First Four Out.

Then St. John's can top off a 20-game-win season by beating Marquette on Saturday.

more importantly for people too lazy to figure out like myself are we locked in on a potential seeding yet for the BET ?

Nah, we're not locked in yet when it comes to conference tournament seeding. We can't finish any lower than 6th, but we can still finish, as high as 4th.

If we lose to Marquette and Georgetown wins their last 2, we would both end up 9-9. Could we then end up as the 7 seed and have to play on Wednesday? (Gtown would have split with Nova and Creighton and we split with Creighton but got swept by Nova).

I believe so. Can't see Gtown winning both of these games though.

Actually, a 7 seed probably gives you a better chance at an at-large bid. You'd get an extra game, albiet against a bad oppoent, but it still ups your win total by 1, which never hurts. Win that, and if the rest of the seeds hold, you could have the chance to take out one of Creighton or Nova in the quarters, then likely Xavier in the semis, and that would almost certianly do it.

Ideally, I don't want to play on Wednesday, because the odds of all that I said happening are slim, but it's just a thought.

A 7 seed wouldn't help STJ. If they lose to Marquette they have to win the tournament, that's the only way they'd get in. Would have to win 4. Not likely.

Ooh, you don't think Creighton and Xavier wins, with a loss to Nova as a 7 seed would do it? That's 22-13, with an RPI considerably boosted. Would be tough to leave out, IMO.

 

[austour]

I don't.

I think one of the best attributes in the selection room will be finishing the regular season 11-3 with no losses outside the top 50. A loss to Marquette would significantly weaken that attribute.

 

[Jack Williams]

Lunardi just updated his, has us listed under First 4 out.

He has Minnesota ahead of us in his Last in. The gophers are 7-10 in conference and have lost 4 of six. No way they get in over us.

I hope not but they are in a tougher league, have a better Rpi (47) and have 3 wins vs our 1 against the Top 50 Rpi.

Big game Saturday for our bubble chances, penn state plays Minnesota. If penn state won, our RPI would improve and it would be a costly loss for the gophers.

Arkansas could lose their next game against ole miss, and also have a tough game against Alabama on the road.

Tennesee plays @Auburn Wednesday, the tigers are a good team, they could pull that off and help us out.

Oregon plays two home games against two tournament teams, Arizona state and Arizona. So they could play themselves in but could also play themselves out.

 

[Jack Williams]

Best case scenario for St. John's is if the following happens:

1) St. John's beats Marquette and gets a five/four seed in the big east tournament

2) St. John's wins in the quarterfinals and advances to play he #1 seed in the semifinals

3) Villanova wins it's last two regular season games (@xavier, gtown) and improves to an AP top 5 team going into the big east tournament

4) St. John's beats nova in the semifinals, getting a top 5 win under their belt, doing wonders for their resume.

 

[ccnobz]

Best case scenario for St. John's is if the following happens:

1) St. John's beats Marquette and gets a five/four seed in the big east tournament

2) St. John's wins in the quarterfinals and advances to play he #1 seed in the semifinals

3) Villanova wins it's last two regular season games (@xavier, gtown) and improves to an AP top 5 team going into the big east tournament

4) St. John's beats nova in the semifinals, getting a top 5 win under their belt, doing wonders for their resume.

They say it's tough to beat a team 3 times in a year, I'd like our chances if we can get to Nova.

 

[room112]

Best case scenario for St. John's is if the following happens:

1) St. John's beats Marquette and gets a five/four seed in the big east tournament

2) St. John's wins in the quarterfinals and advances to play he #1 seed in the semifinals

3) Villanova wins it's last two regular season games (@xavier, gtown) and improves to an AP top 5 team going into the big east tournament

4) St. John's beats nova in the semifinals, getting a top 5 win under their belt, doing wonders for their resume.

Yes this is the dream situation.

 

[postell25]

As of right now Lunardi has Providence and St. Johns as "Last Four In"

What I believe would be best for us right now is that Marquette beats Providence on Tuesday. The loss might knock Providence into First Four Out.

Then St. John's can top off a 20-game-win season by beating Marquette on Saturday.

more importantly for people too lazy to figure out like myself are we locked in on a potential seeding yet for the BET ?

Nah, we're not locked in yet when it comes to conference tournament seeding. We can't finish any lower than 6th, but we can still finish, as high as 4th.

If we lose to Marquette and Georgetown wins their last 2, we would both end up 9-9. Could we then end up as the 7 seed and have to play on Wednesday? (Gtown would have split with Nova and Creighton and we split with Creighton but got swept by Nova).

I believe so. Can't see Gtown winning both of these games though.

Actually, a 7 seed probably gives you a better chance at an at-large bid. You'd get an extra game, albiet against a bad oppoent, but it still ups your win total by 1, which never hurts. Win that, and if the rest of the seeds hold, you could have the chance to take out one of Creighton or Nova in the quarters, then likely Xavier in the semis, and that would almost certianly do it.

Ideally, I don't want to play on Wednesday, because the odds of all that I said happening are slim, but it's just a thought.

Beating a team with an RPI of 140 (assuming it's Butler as the 10) literally does nothing for our at large profile. Just getting a win for a win's sake is meaningless to the committee. Overall win total isn't an important criteria for for them.

After the loss to Xavier, the handful of teams actually playing their way in to the tournament and the assumption that at least two bids are going to be stolen during Championship Week we have to put all our eggs in the "Winning the BET" basket.

Lunardi has us as third in the "Last 4 Out" group which puts us at around 71 on the S Curve. We'd need to jump in to the 64 range just to get a "play in game" and absorb the pending stolen bids. I don't know if there is enough time left to make that kind of jump.

 

[ras]

Best case scenario would to win the BE tourney. But I ll take Jacks scenario.

 

[tom in salem]

As of right now Lunardi has Providence and St. Johns as "Last Four In"

What I believe would be best for us right now is that Marquette beats Providence on Tuesday. The loss might knock Providence into First Four Out.

Then St. John's can top off a 20-game-win season by beating Marquette on Saturday.

more importantly for people too lazy to figure out like myself are we locked in on a potential seeding yet for the BET ?

Nah, we're not locked in yet when it comes to conference tournament seeding. We can't finish any lower than 6th, but we can still finish, as high as 4th.

If we lose to Marquette and Georgetown wins their last 2, we would both end up 9-9. Could we then end up as the 7 seed and have to play on Wednesday? (Gtown would have split with Nova and Creighton and we split with Creighton but got swept by Nova).

I believe so. Can't see Gtown winning both of these games though.

Actually, a 7 seed probably gives you a better chance at an at-large bid. You'd get an extra game, albiet against a bad oppoent, but it still ups your win total by 1, which never hurts. Win that, and if the rest of the seeds hold, you could have the chance to take out one of Creighton or Nova in the quarters, then likely Xavier in the semis, and that would almost certianly do it.

Ideally, I don't want to play on Wednesday, because the odds of all that I said happening are slim, but it's just a thought.

A 7 seed wouldn't help STJ. If they lose to Marquette they have to win the tournament, that's the only way they'd get in. Would have to win 4. Not likely.

They have to win the tournament anyway.
Marquette is 70 on the RPI.
Beating them doesn't move you up.
Need to get around #45, where Xavier is.

 

[Marillac]

This tournament is on our damn home court. There is no reason we can't win 2-3 games at the Garden. Marquette has to be a win. If we can't beat them when they are in a down year, we'll never beat them. They are weak for the first time in like a decade. Time to take them to the woodshed. If we can't beat Marquette with the season riding on it, we simply do no deserve an NCAA tournament berth.

 

[BOB BARKER]

Winning the new Big East does not guarantee an NCAA spot.??????.....think 4 B.E. teams at the very most go to NCAA,probably only 3,just like A-10,when they are good..

 

[paultzman]

This tournament is on our damn home court. There is no reason we can't win 2-3 games at the Garden. Marquette has to be a win. If we can't beat them when they are in a down year, we'll never beat them. They are weak for the first time in like a decade. Time to take them to the woodshed. If we can't beat Marquette with the season riding on it, we simply do no deserve an NCAA tournament berth.

Agree Marillac. Time for this team to step up. Too many squandered opportunities. Let's give it our best and let the chips fall where they may.