Wow, that's hilarious because a lot of people were concerned about schools like Kentucky stockpiling talent with NIL walk-ons. Turns out St. John's will be the first to test this...
2023-24 Rankings
- Thread starter ADORAZ
- Start date
Wow, that's hilarious because a lot of people were concerned about schools like Kentucky stockpiling talent with NIL walk-ons. Turns out St. John's will be the first to test this...
I don’t know if we are the first in college basketball (very good chance you are right) but it is common with specialty positions in college football.
It’s a nice position to be in.
jerseyshorejohnny
Well-known member
John Fanta / Fox Sports / Early Top 25
How the AP poll works, and whether I think St. John's will crack the pre-season poll:
There are around 62 voters most weeks (not everyone votes every week- which is odd but ok). The 1st ranked team on each ballot receives 25 points and the 25th ranked team receives 1 point. For example, one week this past year all 62 voters put Purdue at #1. Purdue received 1550 points. 62 X 25 = 1550
Looking at how many points the #25 preseason AP team received the last 3 years:
2018-19: 165
2019-20: 193
2020-21: 160
2021-22: 125
2022-23: 122
The last couple years there's been less consensus on which teams belonged in the #20-25 range, which has resulted in fewer points needed to crack the rankings. St. John's would need something like that to happen, and the toughest challenge will be getting some voters to put us in the #17-24 range (significantly more points) and not just the token #25 / 1 point pick. One ballot putting us at #20 (6 points) is worth more than five ballots putting us at #25 (5 points).
We've seen a bunch of analysts putting us at #25 or slightly outside the rankings. Even ESPN has us at #28 / third team out. I don't think many will rank us much higher, though, as we haven't proven anything. This is a program that didn't even make the NIT. Frankly I think we'll start the season around where ESPN has us (#28), which would be fair. If we play at or slightly above expectations we could easily crack the rankings in November. As cool as it'd be to be ranked preseason, it'd probably be better to win a couple games first so the team earns it. UConn started this past year preseason #26, considered by many to be a snub, and had a chip on their shoulder which carried them through the Final Four.
There are around 62 voters most weeks (not everyone votes every week- which is odd but ok). The 1st ranked team on each ballot receives 25 points and the 25th ranked team receives 1 point. For example, one week this past year all 62 voters put Purdue at #1. Purdue received 1550 points. 62 X 25 = 1550
Looking at how many points the #25 preseason AP team received the last 3 years:
2018-19: 165
2019-20: 193
2020-21: 160
2021-22: 125
2022-23: 122
The last couple years there's been less consensus on which teams belonged in the #20-25 range, which has resulted in fewer points needed to crack the rankings. St. John's would need something like that to happen, and the toughest challenge will be getting some voters to put us in the #17-24 range (significantly more points) and not just the token #25 / 1 point pick. One ballot putting us at #20 (6 points) is worth more than five ballots putting us at #25 (5 points).
We've seen a bunch of analysts putting us at #25 or slightly outside the rankings. Even ESPN has us at #28 / third team out. I don't think many will rank us much higher, though, as we haven't proven anything. This is a program that didn't even make the NIT. Frankly I think we'll start the season around where ESPN has us (#28), which would be fair. If we play at or slightly above expectations we could easily crack the rankings in November. As cool as it'd be to be ranked preseason, it'd probably be better to win a couple games first so the team earns it. UConn started this past year preseason #26, considered by many to be a snub, and had a chip on their shoulder which carried them through the Final Four.
I know your aren't but I swear if you needed a second career you would be the best actuary ever
Great stuff man
I do, or else it is an unmitigated disaster of a July.
Picture this for a moment: St. John's is hosting Michigan at MSG start of the season. Currently it's set for November 13 on FS1, but even better, there's a rumor going around that Fox is trying to move it up a couple days to a primetime slot on main Fox.
This is already a very high profile game against a Big Ten opponent in Pitino's debut (week). Generally matchups around the country during the first half of November are pretty weak until the Thanksgiving tournaments start. Michigan won't be ranked, so we couldn't rely on them to increase visibility. IF we were ranked that'd significantly increase interest from casual fans around the area- the exact fans we'd need to make MSG a true home for us and not just somewhere we play semi-neutral games at for 4-5 games per season. Pitino wants a sell-out and strong first impression. Being ranked, or even just outside the rankings, would absolutely help with exposure. Like it or not the AP rankings are extremely important for visibility.
With all of this in mind, this could be the most local and national exposure we've received in a very long time. It could even be one of the biggest and most talked about games during the first couple weeks of the season. Even if we're unranked but receiving a lot of votes, winning this game would propel us into the rankings and would jump-start our return to national relevance and sellout crowds. If you can't tell, I'm already excited about all of this and it's only July.
Can't believe there may be another update, but due to the Chris Ledlum rumors:
23-24 incoming class rankings:
High school class: #77 (Wilcher STILL hasn't been updated- embarrassing for 247)
Transfer class: #6 (Ledlum might improve this a couple spots)
Overall: #45 (should go way up if Wilcher is added and Ledlum commits)
Chris Ledlum: #63 in the transfer class
23-24 incoming class rankings:
High school class: #77 (Wilcher STILL hasn't been updated- embarrassing for 247)
Transfer class: #6 (Ledlum might improve this a couple spots)
Overall: #45 (should go way up if Wilcher is added and Ledlum commits)
Chris Ledlum: #63 in the transfer class
Of course all these late additions ,Wilcher and Ledlum will boost pre season rankings and expectations .
But , the biggest piece here is Rick Pitino being our Coach . He jumps us multiple spots just by being Rick .
L J S A
Well-known member
Probably because he reached out to St. John's staff before his public decommit and told them he wanted in.
Because it's the weekend and you never put good news out on a weekend and you haven't seen his name tied with other schools either
And my magic 8 ball still says " yes definitely "
Attachments
Excellent sources
#23 with Rothstein, post-Ledlum:
www.fanduel.com
ROTHSTEIN 45: 2023-24 PRESEASON EDITION | FanDuel Research
*THIS IS ALL SUBJECT TO CHANGE DAILY. It’s never too early to start looking ahead to next season! Below please find a breakdown of the Preseason Edition of the ROTHSTEIN 45 for the 2023-24 season
www.fanduel.com
#23 with Rothstein, post-Ledlum:
ROTHSTEIN 45: 2023-24 PRESEASON EDITION | FanDuel Research
*THIS IS ALL SUBJECT TO CHANGE DAILY. It’s never too early to start looking ahead to next season! Below please find a breakdown of the Preseason Edition of the ROTHSTEIN 45 for the 2023-24 season
That's awesome, exactly what we need: 3 points rather than the token 1 point / #25. Even if all ~65 ballots put us at #25, historically speaking that wouldn't be enough points to crack the preseason rankings. Very weird how that works out, but just shows how much where you're ranked on these ballots matters.
Zach B said we'll be ranked preseason. I'm not convinced yet, but obviously this move will help.
