Class of 72
Active member
Bottom line is root for our OOC opponents to be better than expected but not good enough to beat us.
2018/19 Schedule
- Thread starter cappy105
- Start date
[quote="Room112" post=292504][quote="SJU1512" post=292497]Think the question as is so often the case with this program is what is the plan?
Two years ago off a 1-17 Big East season we played games 3-6 at Minnesota and in a loaded Bahamas tourney. Actually played well enough to win in first 3 of those games but couldn't close, understand staff may have felt it needed to elevate overall/recruiting profile with Bahamas trip, but that felt like biting off more than team was ready to chew. Hindsight 20/20, but in retrospect program wasn't ready in Year 2 of a total rebuild for a Top 50 schedule and that respectable 7-11 in conference number didn't look as great against 6-7 OOC.
Thought the schedule last year was well done, don't know that they thought it would be Top 15, but it was a strong schedule that seemed to fit where program thought they'd be if healthy in Year 3. 11-2 against that OOC was elite, and that SJU ended with a Top 100 RPI despite going 4-14 in conference speaks to that and broadly highlights the critical impact the OOC SOS can have.
Which makes this year's schedule really confusing. Were they expecting a regression in talent on roster and wanted softer landing for overall record irrespective of postseason play? Especially in an era where doing well (but having margin for error) against a strong OOC seems to be valued more than running the table against cupcakes (with little margin for error) by the Selection Committee, this is a really odd approach that could genuinely compromise NCAA chances. Why volunteer to have minimal margin for error, any hiccups will almost certainly hurt, and even if there are no hiccups it still may be viewed as a demerit? That's almost lose-lose-lose, and this program has just been nowhere near good enough to not optimize stuff like this that should be pretty well within its control.
All that said, schedules in August aren't always as good/bad as they end up looking in February, hopefully the conference is strong and one or more of Rutgers/Cal/GT/VCU/Temple surprise, and SJU wins enough games for neither of those things to matter much.[/quote]
Good analysis. Actually if you search these forums you will find a lot of complaining prior to last season about the schedule. And it turned out to be one of the toughest in the country. I'm not happy about this year's schedule either, but let's see how it plays out.[/quote]
I remember the opposite. People complaining about how tough the schedule was. That road trip @ Arizona St and then Grand Canyon (solid mid major) was brutal (before the season started we all knew how tough a road game vs GCU would be). Even the "easy" half of the schedule consisted of solid teams like Iona and St. Joe's (neutral). Whoever complained about it being too easy, even before the season started, must've been very uninformed. The only complaining I remember in regards to it being easy was the last minute D2 game, but at least that didn't impact RPI.
The person who previously did the schedules clearly knew a lot more about RPI, SOS, etc than GSJ (who did this year's), which is pretty shocking in 2018. The other explanation is that GSJ received no help and/or was told to make it 300+ SOS.
Fortunately the Big East accounts for 18 (+BET) vs 13 OOC games. So, if we do really well for the year then we'll still get into the Tournament. If we are truly a Tournament caliber team, then we should get in regardless of the schedule. The issue will be if we're a bubble team. Just need to hope we play well all year.
It'd be nice if the staff admitted to their mistake and revised a game or two, but that type of thing never happens (at any program).
Two years ago off a 1-17 Big East season we played games 3-6 at Minnesota and in a loaded Bahamas tourney. Actually played well enough to win in first 3 of those games but couldn't close, understand staff may have felt it needed to elevate overall/recruiting profile with Bahamas trip, but that felt like biting off more than team was ready to chew. Hindsight 20/20, but in retrospect program wasn't ready in Year 2 of a total rebuild for a Top 50 schedule and that respectable 7-11 in conference number didn't look as great against 6-7 OOC.
Thought the schedule last year was well done, don't know that they thought it would be Top 15, but it was a strong schedule that seemed to fit where program thought they'd be if healthy in Year 3. 11-2 against that OOC was elite, and that SJU ended with a Top 100 RPI despite going 4-14 in conference speaks to that and broadly highlights the critical impact the OOC SOS can have.
Which makes this year's schedule really confusing. Were they expecting a regression in talent on roster and wanted softer landing for overall record irrespective of postseason play? Especially in an era where doing well (but having margin for error) against a strong OOC seems to be valued more than running the table against cupcakes (with little margin for error) by the Selection Committee, this is a really odd approach that could genuinely compromise NCAA chances. Why volunteer to have minimal margin for error, any hiccups will almost certainly hurt, and even if there are no hiccups it still may be viewed as a demerit? That's almost lose-lose-lose, and this program has just been nowhere near good enough to not optimize stuff like this that should be pretty well within its control.
All that said, schedules in August aren't always as good/bad as they end up looking in February, hopefully the conference is strong and one or more of Rutgers/Cal/GT/VCU/Temple surprise, and SJU wins enough games for neither of those things to matter much.[/quote]
Good analysis. Actually if you search these forums you will find a lot of complaining prior to last season about the schedule. And it turned out to be one of the toughest in the country. I'm not happy about this year's schedule either, but let's see how it plays out.[/quote]
I remember the opposite. People complaining about how tough the schedule was. That road trip @ Arizona St and then Grand Canyon (solid mid major) was brutal (before the season started we all knew how tough a road game vs GCU would be). Even the "easy" half of the schedule consisted of solid teams like Iona and St. Joe's (neutral). Whoever complained about it being too easy, even before the season started, must've been very uninformed. The only complaining I remember in regards to it being easy was the last minute D2 game, but at least that didn't impact RPI.
The person who previously did the schedules clearly knew a lot more about RPI, SOS, etc than GSJ (who did this year's), which is pretty shocking in 2018. The other explanation is that GSJ received no help and/or was told to make it 300+ SOS.
Fortunately the Big East accounts for 18 (+BET) vs 13 OOC games. So, if we do really well for the year then we'll still get into the Tournament. If we are truly a Tournament caliber team, then we should get in regardless of the schedule. The issue will be if we're a bubble team. Just need to hope we play well all year.
It'd be nice if the staff admitted to their mistake and revised a game or two, but that type of thing never happens (at any program).
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[quote="Room112" post=292504][quote="SJU1512" post=292497]
All that said, schedules in August aren't always as good/bad as they end up looking in February, hopefully the conference is strong and one or more of Rutgers/Cal/GT/VCU/Temple surprise, and SJU wins enough games for neither of those things to matter much.[/quote]
Good analysis. Actually if you search these forums you will find a lot of complaining prior to last season about the schedule. And it turned out to be one of the toughest in the country. I'm not happy about this year's schedule either, but let's see how it plays out.[/quote]
The SOS was strong last year because of the conference, the OOC SOS was good but not great at 78, not exactly one of the strongest in the country. But it was the 2nd toughest in the BE where only 3 schools were in the top 100. That said I agree with the original point. Hopefully won't end up as bad as we're making it, and if they win lots it will come, and this discussion will be moot. As I stated in another thread the discussions about how down the BE is are almost annual as well and usuallyl end up being wrong too.
All that said, schedules in August aren't always as good/bad as they end up looking in February, hopefully the conference is strong and one or more of Rutgers/Cal/GT/VCU/Temple surprise, and SJU wins enough games for neither of those things to matter much.[/quote]
Good analysis. Actually if you search these forums you will find a lot of complaining prior to last season about the schedule. And it turned out to be one of the toughest in the country. I'm not happy about this year's schedule either, but let's see how it plays out.[/quote]
The SOS was strong last year because of the conference, the OOC SOS was good but not great at 78, not exactly one of the strongest in the country. But it was the 2nd toughest in the BE where only 3 schools were in the top 100. That said I agree with the original point. Hopefully won't end up as bad as we're making it, and if they win lots it will come, and this discussion will be moot. As I stated in another thread the discussions about how down the BE is are almost annual as well and usuallyl end up being wrong too.
Just a thought. I know everyone is complaining about the schedule. Just think that we have seven new players(assuming Heron is eligible). Maybe the weak out of conference schedule at the beginning of the season won't as bad considering that we have to blend in seven new players, it might be an opportunity to blend in the new players get the rotation down , get the bench players the maximum amount of playing time before conference play to get them experience and then be in the best position come conference play. Then just hope we clean up in conference.
Moose
Well-known member
[quote="Las Vegan" post=292075]I really don't understand scheduling Maryland Eastern Shore and Mt. St. Mary, when local schools: Fordham, Manhattan, Hofstra and Iona are available. Give the paying fans a break.[/quote]
1. Nothing to gain playing a local vs other
2. A lot to lose playing a local vs. other
3. They might not want to play us.
4. Schedules might not work out as they are often complicated.
1. Nothing to gain playing a local vs other
2. A lot to lose playing a local vs. other
3. They might not want to play us.
4. Schedules might not work out as they are often complicated.
[quote="Moose" post=292524]Just want to know what the excuse will be when this easy schedule still produces losses?[/quote]
Don't underestimate a few folks ability at mental gymnastics, deflection and tomfoolery. Let's hope the team comes through, and we (the forum) don't have to endure such things.
Don't underestimate a few folks ability at mental gymnastics, deflection and tomfoolery. Let's hope the team comes through, and we (the forum) don't have to endure such things.
[quote="Moose" post=292524]Just want to know what the excuse will be when this easy schedule still produces losses?[/quote]
There won't be any excuses, because our season will be over by November/December if that happens. That's why you always give yourself a chance to make up for bad losses with a solid schedule. And by "chance", I don't mean winning @ Duke.
Someone also mentioned last year's OOC SOS was 73, but it was actually 45 (at least by some outlets). I think our "neutral" MSG/Barclays games (such as Holiday) are counted differently. I think the NCAA counts them as neutral games or semi-neutral games, while some outlets consider them home games.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/St. John's.html
There won't be any excuses, because our season will be over by November/December if that happens. That's why you always give yourself a chance to make up for bad losses with a solid schedule. And by "chance", I don't mean winning @ Duke.
Someone also mentioned last year's OOC SOS was 73, but it was actually 45 (at least by some outlets). I think our "neutral" MSG/Barclays games (such as Holiday) are counted differently. I think the NCAA counts them as neutral games or semi-neutral games, while some outlets consider them home games.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/St. John's.html
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ManhattAn1
Active member
OTher issue people are forgetting we are playing less MSG games now due to $$. Possibility school said if we can't get a top team that will draw we are not playing at MSG. Then that leaves teams balking at playing at Carnesecca which leads to no great game and scheduling issues.
Adam wrote: There won't be any excuses, because our season will be over by November/December if that happens.
I agree 100% no excuses this year if team isn't successful. If MH is eligible, they can and should make the dance despite the poorly constructed schedule. If he isn't eligible and they are a bubble team who misses because of poor OOC schedule and less than outstanding BE record, that is staff's fault for poor schedule. I am not going to predict doom and gloom before season starts, but totally agree that this is a year where onus is on staff to produce.
I agree 100% no excuses this year if team isn't successful. If MH is eligible, they can and should make the dance despite the poorly constructed schedule. If he isn't eligible and they are a bubble team who misses because of poor OOC schedule and less than outstanding BE record, that is staff's fault for poor schedule. I am not going to predict doom and gloom before season starts, but totally agree that this is a year where onus is on staff to produce.
[quote="Adam" post=292511][quote="Room112" post=292504][quote="SJU1512" post=292497]Think the question as is so often the case with this program is what is the plan?
Two years ago off a 1-17 Big East season we played games 3-6 at Minnesota and in a loaded Bahamas tourney. Actually played well enough to win in first 3 of those games but couldn't close, understand staff may have felt it needed to elevate overall/recruiting profile with Bahamas trip, but that felt like biting off more than team was ready to chew. Hindsight 20/20, but in retrospect program wasn't ready in Year 2 of a total rebuild for a Top 50 schedule and that respectable 7-11 in conference number didn't look as great against 6-7 OOC.
Thought the schedule last year was well done, don't know that they thought it would be Top 15, but it was a strong schedule that seemed to fit where program thought they'd be if healthy in Year 3. 11-2 against that OOC was elite, and that SJU ended with a Top 100 RPI despite going 4-14 in conference speaks to that and broadly highlights the critical impact the OOC SOS can have.
Which makes this year's schedule really confusing. Were they expecting a regression in talent on roster and wanted softer landing for overall record irrespective of postseason play? Especially in an era where doing well (but having margin for error) against a strong OOC seems to be valued more than running the table against cupcakes (with little margin for error) by the Selection Committee, this is a really odd approach that could genuinely compromise NCAA chances. Why volunteer to have minimal margin for error, any hiccups will almost certainly hurt, and even if there are no hiccups it still may be viewed as a demerit? That's almost lose-lose-lose, and this program has just been nowhere near good enough to not optimize stuff like this that should be pretty well within its control.
All that said, schedules in August aren't always as good/bad as they end up looking in February, hopefully the conference is strong and one or more of Rutgers/Cal/GT/VCU/Temple surprise, and SJU wins enough games for neither of those things to matter much.[/quote]
Good analysis. Actually if you search these forums you will find a lot of complaining prior to last season about the schedule. And it turned out to be one of the toughest in the country. I'm not happy about this year's schedule either, but let's see how it plays out.[/quote]
I remember the opposite. People complaining about how tough the schedule was. That road trip @ Arizona St and then Grand Canyon (solid mid major) was brutal (before the season started we all knew how tough a road game vs GCU would be). Even the "easy" half of the schedule consisted of solid teams like Iona and St. Joe's (neutral). Whoever complained about it being too easy, even before the season started, must've been very uninformed. The only complaining I remember in regards to it being easy was the last minute D2 game, but at least that didn't impact RPI.
The person who previously did the schedules clearly knew a lot more about RPI, SOS, etc than GSJ (who did this year's), which is pretty shocking in 2018. The other explanation is that GSJ received no help and/or was told to make it 300+ SOS.
Fortunately the Big East accounts for 18 (+BET) vs 13 OOC games. So, if we do really well for the year then we'll still get into the Tournament. If we are truly a Tournament caliber team, then we should get in regardless of the schedule. The issue will be if we're a bubble team. Just need to hope we play well all year.
It'd be nice if the staff admitted to their mistake and revised a game or two, but that type of thing never happens (at any program).[/quote]
Adam, you made the point I wanted to make, but in my 'Rice-Yea/Rice-Nay/Empty Chair Mitch' state of funk, I didn't have the energy.
Yes, we play 18 BEC games + the BET that will make or break any Dance dreams.
And IF we do well in the BEC + BET (14-7?), to go with 11 - 1 in a seemingly weak OOC schedule, we're dancing.
Period.
Empty chairs or not.
Two years ago off a 1-17 Big East season we played games 3-6 at Minnesota and in a loaded Bahamas tourney. Actually played well enough to win in first 3 of those games but couldn't close, understand staff may have felt it needed to elevate overall/recruiting profile with Bahamas trip, but that felt like biting off more than team was ready to chew. Hindsight 20/20, but in retrospect program wasn't ready in Year 2 of a total rebuild for a Top 50 schedule and that respectable 7-11 in conference number didn't look as great against 6-7 OOC.
Thought the schedule last year was well done, don't know that they thought it would be Top 15, but it was a strong schedule that seemed to fit where program thought they'd be if healthy in Year 3. 11-2 against that OOC was elite, and that SJU ended with a Top 100 RPI despite going 4-14 in conference speaks to that and broadly highlights the critical impact the OOC SOS can have.
Which makes this year's schedule really confusing. Were they expecting a regression in talent on roster and wanted softer landing for overall record irrespective of postseason play? Especially in an era where doing well (but having margin for error) against a strong OOC seems to be valued more than running the table against cupcakes (with little margin for error) by the Selection Committee, this is a really odd approach that could genuinely compromise NCAA chances. Why volunteer to have minimal margin for error, any hiccups will almost certainly hurt, and even if there are no hiccups it still may be viewed as a demerit? That's almost lose-lose-lose, and this program has just been nowhere near good enough to not optimize stuff like this that should be pretty well within its control.
All that said, schedules in August aren't always as good/bad as they end up looking in February, hopefully the conference is strong and one or more of Rutgers/Cal/GT/VCU/Temple surprise, and SJU wins enough games for neither of those things to matter much.[/quote]
Good analysis. Actually if you search these forums you will find a lot of complaining prior to last season about the schedule. And it turned out to be one of the toughest in the country. I'm not happy about this year's schedule either, but let's see how it plays out.[/quote]
I remember the opposite. People complaining about how tough the schedule was. That road trip @ Arizona St and then Grand Canyon (solid mid major) was brutal (before the season started we all knew how tough a road game vs GCU would be). Even the "easy" half of the schedule consisted of solid teams like Iona and St. Joe's (neutral). Whoever complained about it being too easy, even before the season started, must've been very uninformed. The only complaining I remember in regards to it being easy was the last minute D2 game, but at least that didn't impact RPI.
The person who previously did the schedules clearly knew a lot more about RPI, SOS, etc than GSJ (who did this year's), which is pretty shocking in 2018. The other explanation is that GSJ received no help and/or was told to make it 300+ SOS.
Fortunately the Big East accounts for 18 (+BET) vs 13 OOC games. So, if we do really well for the year then we'll still get into the Tournament. If we are truly a Tournament caliber team, then we should get in regardless of the schedule. The issue will be if we're a bubble team. Just need to hope we play well all year.
It'd be nice if the staff admitted to their mistake and revised a game or two, but that type of thing never happens (at any program).[/quote]
Adam, you made the point I wanted to make, but in my 'Rice-Yea/Rice-Nay/Empty Chair Mitch' state of funk, I didn't have the energy.
Yes, we play 18 BEC games + the BET that will make or break any Dance dreams.
And IF we do well in the BEC + BET (14-7?), to go with 11 - 1 in a seemingly weak OOC schedule, we're dancing.
Period.
Empty chairs or not.
tom in salem
Well-known member
[quote="Adam" post=292528][quote="Moose" post=292524]Just want to know what the excuse will be when this easy schedule still produces losses?[/quote]
There won't be any excuses, because our season will be over by November/December if that happens. That's why you always give yourself a chance to make up for bad losses with a solid schedule. And by "chance", I don't mean winning @ Duke.
Someone also mentioned last year's OOC SOS was 73, but it was actually 45 (at least by some outlets). I think our "neutral" MSG/Barclays games (such as Holiday) are counted differently. I think the NCAA counts them as neutral games or semi-neutral games, while some outlets consider them home games.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/St. John's.html[/quote]
It's not about this season, the team will be fine.
It's about the 2019/20 season.
The one man recruiting staff will again strike out on the early signing period.
Counting on acquiring an AAU coach to bring in a bountiful 2019 class didn't work out and the future looks worse than dim.
Sooner the cord gets cut, sooner the rebuild begins.
From the very top down.
There won't be any excuses, because our season will be over by November/December if that happens. That's why you always give yourself a chance to make up for bad losses with a solid schedule. And by "chance", I don't mean winning @ Duke.
Someone also mentioned last year's OOC SOS was 73, but it was actually 45 (at least by some outlets). I think our "neutral" MSG/Barclays games (such as Holiday) are counted differently. I think the NCAA counts them as neutral games or semi-neutral games, while some outlets consider them home games.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/St. John's.html[/quote]
It's not about this season, the team will be fine.
It's about the 2019/20 season.
The one man recruiting staff will again strike out on the early signing period.
Counting on acquiring an AAU coach to bring in a bountiful 2019 class didn't work out and the future looks worse than dim.
Sooner the cord gets cut, sooner the rebuild begins.
From the very top down.
[quote="AlBovino" post=292537]We will be just fine in 2019/20. Anyone with half a brain can see we are trending upwards. However, people on this site with half a brain are at a premium.[/quote]
Thanks Al. Now, I know my problem.
That missing half must contain the unchecked Panglossian Syndrome, dooming me to see reality as it is, not as I'd like it.
Thanks Al. Now, I know my problem.
That missing half must contain the unchecked Panglossian Syndrome, dooming me to see reality as it is, not as I'd like it.
[quote="otis" post=292536][quote="Adam" post=292511]
........ GSJ (who did this year's), which is pretty shocking in 2018..........[/quote]
Is there any proof that Greg StJean alone made up the StJohn’s schedule ?
Thanks[/quote]
Yes, I asked a few pages back who made the schedule and Paultz replied with this:
Last year Dan Matic did it as I now understand and Greg SJ did this time. Mullin of course would sign off on it I assume.
........ GSJ (who did this year's), which is pretty shocking in 2018..........[/quote]
Is there any proof that Greg StJean alone made up the StJohn’s schedule ?
Thanks[/quote]
Yes, I asked a few pages back who made the schedule and Paultz replied with this:
Last year Dan Matic did it as I now understand and Greg SJ did this time. Mullin of course would sign off on it I assume.
[quote="otis" post=292536][quote="Adam" post=292511]
........ GSJ (who did this year's), which is pretty shocking in 2018..........[/quote]
Is there any proof that Greg StJean alone made up the StJohn’s schedule ?
Thanks[/quote]
He apparently was primary person doing it as I noted before. I am sure Mullin also participated in the process.
........ GSJ (who did this year's), which is pretty shocking in 2018..........[/quote]
Is there any proof that Greg StJean alone made up the StJohn’s schedule ?
Thanks[/quote]
He apparently was primary person doing it as I noted before. I am sure Mullin also participated in the process.
Class of 72
Active member
[quote="AlBovino" post=292537]We will be just fine in 2019/20. Anyone with half a brain can see we are trending upwards. However, people on this site with half a brain are at a premium.[/quote]
I feel much better now. I was worried we would lose local kids like Aidan Igiehon, Kofi Cockburn, Ledlum, Gaffney, Scottie Lewis, Quinones, etc. Must be you got confirmation from Mitch Richmond regarding our chances with those kids. Now we know Mitch is Florida looking for a retirement home.
I feel much better now. I was worried we would lose local kids like Aidan Igiehon, Kofi Cockburn, Ledlum, Gaffney, Scottie Lewis, Quinones, etc. Must be you got confirmation from Mitch Richmond regarding our chances with those kids. Now we know Mitch is Florida looking for a retirement home.
[quote="Tom in Salem" post=292534][quote="Adam" post=292528][quote="Moose" post=292524]Just want to know what the excuse will be when this easy schedule still produces losses?[/quote]
There won't be any excuses, because our season will be over by November/December if that happens. That's why you always give yourself a chance to make up for bad losses with a solid schedule. And by "chance", I don't mean winning @ Duke.
Someone also mentioned last year's OOC SOS was 73, but it was actually 45 (at least by some outlets). I think our "neutral" MSG/Barclays games (such as Holiday) are counted differently. I think the NCAA counts them as neutral games or semi-neutral games, while some outlets consider them home games.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/St. John's.html[/quote]
It's not about this season, the team will be fine.
It's about the 2019/20 season.
The one man recruiting staff will again strike out on the early signing period.
Counting on acquiring an AAU coach to bring in a bountiful 2019 class didn't work out and the future looks worse than dim.
Sooner the cord gets cut, sooner the rebuild begins.
From the very top down.[/quote]
Tom, have you lost all hope for a lousy upcoming season?
There won't be any excuses, because our season will be over by November/December if that happens. That's why you always give yourself a chance to make up for bad losses with a solid schedule. And by "chance", I don't mean winning @ Duke.
Someone also mentioned last year's OOC SOS was 73, but it was actually 45 (at least by some outlets). I think our "neutral" MSG/Barclays games (such as Holiday) are counted differently. I think the NCAA counts them as neutral games or semi-neutral games, while some outlets consider them home games.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/St. John's.html[/quote]
It's not about this season, the team will be fine.
It's about the 2019/20 season.
The one man recruiting staff will again strike out on the early signing period.
Counting on acquiring an AAU coach to bring in a bountiful 2019 class didn't work out and the future looks worse than dim.
Sooner the cord gets cut, sooner the rebuild begins.
From the very top down.[/quote]
Tom, have you lost all hope for a lousy upcoming season?
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