Another little bit on the same numbers if the video isnt for you
https://viewsfrom314ft.com/mailbag-...e-ellsburys-contract-and-trading-with-boston/
Atlanta socked three dingers against Gerrit Cole a few days ago and made a bunch of hard contact otherwise. Home runs have been a problem for Cole this year (10 allowed in 41 innings), but he’s given up his fair share of dingers in the past. But as Jeff points out, Cole’s 45.5 percent hard hit rate is the highest of his career. Previously, it maxed out at 39.8 percent in 2018 with Houston. Last year, he had a 35.5 percent rate.
Before digging deeper, it’s important to note that hard hit percentage makes up any batted ball with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or higher. It can be a popup or grounder too, not necessarily just a line drive or a deep fly ball. Pointing this out matters. For instance, if you look back at Cole’s 2018 season, you’ll see that his hard hit rate was one of the worst in the league (13th percentile). However, his expected batting average (91st percentile), expected slugging (83rd percentile), and xwOBA (89th percentile) were all superb. Even though there were a lot of high exit velocities against him, hitters didn’t square up too often.
So at first glance, a high hard hit rate against Cole isn’t necessarily a big deal this season. I’d say that the bigger concern is opponents’ higher barrel rate against him. Right now, that stands at 11.1 percent (career-worst, 7.6 previous high in 2017) and is in the 27th percentile of MLB. I’m still pretty comfortable chalking that up to a small sample size, though. His stuff certainly hasn’t deteriorated. He just hasn’t put everything together for one outing yet. Frustrating? Yes. But I have no reason to doubt it’ll come around.
I have one theory as to why batters are barreling Cole’s pitches more often this season. Cole has seemed to struggle throwing his curveball for strikes, which is something he could do in the past.
Basically, Cole’s only been able to locate his fastball for a strike with consistency in 2020. That probably makes things easier for hitters — they aren’t seeing knee-buckling curveballs dropped into the strike zone like in years past. It’s one less thing to keep them honest.