@West Virginia, Fri., Dec. 1, 7p, ESPN-2

logen said:
The Johnnies NCAA tournament selection chance will be decided by their conference performance, not by an early December game. You obviously want to win every game you play, but a good or bad in-conference is going to leave this game long in the rear view mirror.
Click to expand...
Disagree. St. John’s, Providence, and Butler need every win they can get. This is a huge game for the metrics. It’s a possible Q1 road win against a team that can knock off some good teams later in the season when they get their players back.

Whether we make the dance or not will likely come down to 2 wins in either direction and it’s just not reasonable to expect yo make up too much ground in a very tough Big East with a home and home format.
 
Eric said:
Love the investor comment. Vegasman sounds like he would know more than me but from my perspective, when it comes to public vs sharp money, a lot of times the public is all over a team and the line doesn't move and the majority of the money can be on the other side with the sharps that move it.

I think lines move more from the sharp guys as opposed to the public from my experiences and research but I suppose it depends on if certain public guys throw heavy money on a game. There are sites that show public percent and volume of money on each team and plenty of times its opposite when it comes to public money and line movement.
Click to expand...
You have to look at the percentage of money bet vs the percentage of bets made. For example, if 70% of the bets are on the Johnnies but only 48% of the money bet is on the Johnnies then you probably have a lot of small money public bettors on the Johnnies. If 42% of the bets are on the Johnnie’s but 70% of the money is on the Johnnie’s then the big money sharps are probably on them and the line will move. But, you have to look at percentage of bets vs percentage of money bet to really get a good picture of who’s betting and something is happening.
 
SJUWillRockNYC said:
The line is all over the place.

Like an hr to 90 minutes before you posted this it was 3.5, well now it's 5.5p
Click to expand...

bucketshardy said:
You mind breaking this down again...

I always understood it- that a line moves in whatever direction so that almost have the bets are on either side of the line... so the Book still makes money off the Vig regardless who wins

Given this line has move 4 points- you can assume Public money is all over the Johnnies right? and given Public is mostly wrong... that doesn't bode well for us... correct?

Please correct and explain,

-Struggling investor
Click to expand...
The book just wants to split the bet. They live on the vig. to much sju money comming in so they need to push money to w.v. They happy with 50-50 on all games. They gotta root when they dont split the bet and they dont like to gamble. Money that comes in fast is often called smart money. As a big fan of sju i want smart money comming in for the team i love. All i do is root.
 
Mean Gene said:
You have to look at the percentage of money bet vs the percentage of bets made. For example, if 70% of the bets are on the Johnnies but only 48% of the money bet is on the Johnnies then you probably have a lot of small money public bettors on the Johnnies. If 42% of the bets are on the Johnnie’s but 70% of the money is on the Johnnie’s then the big money sharps are probably on them and the line will move. But, you have to look at percentage of bets vs percentage of money bet to really get a good picture of who’s betting and something is happening.
Click to expand...
I have no idea how Vegas works but St. John’s -2 or -3 is as good of a bet as you will see in college basketball all year for those that were able to get that. Of course it doesn’t mean they cover, but you have to jump on the few opportunities you get.
 
Mean Gene said:
You have to look at the percentage of money bet vs the percentage of bets made. For example, if 70% of the bets are on the Johnnies but only 48% of the money bet is on the Johnnies then you probably have a lot of small money public bettors on the Johnnies. If 42% of the bets are on the Johnnie’s but 70% of the money is on the Johnnie’s then the big money sharps are probably on them and the line will move. But, you have to look at percentage of bets vs percentage of money bet to really get a good picture of who’s betting and something is happening.
Click to expand...
yes being more specific with percentages
 
Marillac2 said:
Disagree. St. John’s, Providence, and Butler need every win they can get. This is a huge game for the metrics. It’s a possible Q1 road win against a team that can knock off some good teams later in the season when they get their players back.

Whether we make the dance or not will likely come down to 2 wins in either direction and it’s just not reasonable to expect yo make up too much ground in a very tough Big East with a home and home format.
Click to expand...
No one game this early in the season is going to make a difference. We could lose this game and wind up beating Uconn and Creighton or we could win tonight and lose all 4 to Uconn and Creighton. Every game is important but the body of work is what matters in the end, so those saying it is a must win really don't have a leg to stand on. Now if it was the last game of the season and we are projected as one of the last 4 in or n the fence, then the one game has significant meaning.
 
Redmen88 said:
No one game this early in the season is going to make a difference. We could lose this game and wind up beating Uconn and Creighton or we could win tonight and lose all 4 to Uconn and Creighton. Every game is important but the body of work is what matters in the end, so those saying it is a must win really don't have a leg to stand on. Now if it was the last game of the season and we are projected as one of the last 4 in or n the fence, then the one game has significant meaning.
Click to expand...
That said, program has been plagued by slow starts and BE holes we never got out of. Yeah, new HOF Coach, but am sure Rick would obviously like to tuck this one away. Losing Luis is tough, but let’s see the character of the team dealing with adversity. West Virginia has had their fair share of roster losses as well. No sense whining, just go out and beat them.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top