[quote="Room112" post=284827][quote="IDRAFT" post=284720]I post this at the risk of being repetitive. I am trying a different approach, looking at potential minutes. Last time I try to suggest the roster isn't a mess, I promise, well, until the games start.
Understanding that we haven't seen many of these players yet I propose the following as a conservative estimate of average minute distribution for next year. Keep in mind it is all based on Ponds return, which seems to be the staffs assumption too.
Ponds - 33
Simon - 33
Clark - 30
Keita - 25
Dixon - 20
Figeruoa - 20
Trimble - 15
Williams - 15
Remaining Roster - 9
Those numbers add. I took the minutes for our best two players down from last year since we played with such a short roster. I took Clark down a minute. Keita would only play a little over half a game, Dixon and Figerora only half. Trimble would play two less minutes a game as a sophmore. Williams, a higher rated player, would play two less minutes a game than Trimble was needed for last year (and a lot of that was in Big East play due to Lovett's "injury".)
Now I am on board that if we can find someone big, strong and talented to play the other nine minutes that would be grand. It is also easy to see why it is a tough sell, and why Owens took off. I still can't see how we could have gotten a committ from a starting player level big and also Figeruoa. Kids, especially immediately eligible players, would want minutes, no? A guy like Yakwe would fit what SJU needs and he transferred out as 12 minutes a game was not enough for him. I don't even think we have that available for him this year.
It's not that I do not think that size was a problem last year. It should be a weakness again. It's that most teams have strengths and weaknesses, the key is not to have too many of them. Our outside shooting was brutal last year. The idea that plugging in anyone with size will setup an inside/outside game is one way to free an outside shooter.. Another way is when a guard slashes and kicks out. We have two guards Ponds and Simon, that are excellent at that, which had as much to do with Clark leading the team in 3 Pt Percentage as anything else. If we added two more guys who can catch and shoot, and that's the big if, it will be a big deal.
I think there will certainly be games that we get abused inside and lose. It looks like the biggest issue. But I'm hopeful we will lose less games because nobody on the floor can hit an outside shot and we lost plenty of those last year too.
If Figueroa is bad the argument that we blew it by not using those minutes on a big is valid. If he does well it is only valid if his production isn't needed. You only get to play five guys at a time.[/quote]
Thanks for putting this together. I had just asked about it anothet thrread before seeing this. I've been one who's been on record saying we are not a popular destination for a grad big because we don't have the minutes to offer, well you proved it.
Plus something we all don't even realize is what was promised to these kids to even get them to agree to come here. Did we promise Figeroa a starting job and 20+ mins? Did we promise Keita 25+ mins? If we did, then can't go against our word.[/quote]
Your analysis is helpful. I just disagree with you conclusion although the staff apparently does not. I think that is a blind spot that does us in every year when we lack depth in the paint and get abused by otherwise weaker teams - see DePaul, Georgetown, Providence etc. Your accounting of minutes only includes 25 minutes for a true low post presence. The other 15 we are naked, and many BE teams have two bigs that can play together and dominate us. If Keita has a tendency to foul trouble we could be screwed in multiple games again vs otherwise weaker opponents and pile up-Conference losses we can’t afford if we want to get to the dance.
Re the lack of minutes available for a solid grad transfer, say the player from UMASS, there’s no reason you can’t take 10 minutes from Trimble and Williams (whoever is more ready to go gets the minutes) and all of the rest of the minutes. Freshmen on teams like Villanova, Xavier, etc often sit a lot and get worked in as they mature. And they’re very happy when they get to go to the dance every year and compete for a championship, even though they have to wait their turn to play. None of the guys at the end of our lineup are 5 or even solid 4-star players so there should be no expectation of big minutes as freshman. And if Williams turns out to be a true 4-star guard and deserves more time he should get Trimble’s minutes. Next year without Ponds, Clark and probably Simon and a grad transfer if we got one this year they’ll be plenty of minutes for all. That the staff doesn’t seem to agree with this and isn’t going to pursue excellent options like the kid from UMASS blows my mind and makes me doubt that SJU will ever become a consistently effective BE program while led by this staff. I’m a big big fan of Chris Mullin as a player and a human being but his philosophy for the team leads me to believe that we will all continue to be disappointed as we have been now for so many years with only a few years as exceptions.
Understanding that we haven't seen many of these players yet I propose the following as a conservative estimate of average minute distribution for next year. Keep in mind it is all based on Ponds return, which seems to be the staffs assumption too.
Ponds - 33
Simon - 33
Clark - 30
Keita - 25
Dixon - 20
Figeruoa - 20
Trimble - 15
Williams - 15
Remaining Roster - 9
Those numbers add. I took the minutes for our best two players down from last year since we played with such a short roster. I took Clark down a minute. Keita would only play a little over half a game, Dixon and Figerora only half. Trimble would play two less minutes a game as a sophmore. Williams, a higher rated player, would play two less minutes a game than Trimble was needed for last year (and a lot of that was in Big East play due to Lovett's "injury".)
Now I am on board that if we can find someone big, strong and talented to play the other nine minutes that would be grand. It is also easy to see why it is a tough sell, and why Owens took off. I still can't see how we could have gotten a committ from a starting player level big and also Figeruoa. Kids, especially immediately eligible players, would want minutes, no? A guy like Yakwe would fit what SJU needs and he transferred out as 12 minutes a game was not enough for him. I don't even think we have that available for him this year.
It's not that I do not think that size was a problem last year. It should be a weakness again. It's that most teams have strengths and weaknesses, the key is not to have too many of them. Our outside shooting was brutal last year. The idea that plugging in anyone with size will setup an inside/outside game is one way to free an outside shooter.. Another way is when a guard slashes and kicks out. We have two guards Ponds and Simon, that are excellent at that, which had as much to do with Clark leading the team in 3 Pt Percentage as anything else. If we added two more guys who can catch and shoot, and that's the big if, it will be a big deal.
I think there will certainly be games that we get abused inside and lose. It looks like the biggest issue. But I'm hopeful we will lose less games because nobody on the floor can hit an outside shot and we lost plenty of those last year too.
If Figueroa is bad the argument that we blew it by not using those minutes on a big is valid. If he does well it is only valid if his production isn't needed. You only get to play five guys at a time.[/quote]
Thanks for putting this together. I had just asked about it anothet thrread before seeing this. I've been one who's been on record saying we are not a popular destination for a grad big because we don't have the minutes to offer, well you proved it.
Plus something we all don't even realize is what was promised to these kids to even get them to agree to come here. Did we promise Figeroa a starting job and 20+ mins? Did we promise Keita 25+ mins? If we did, then can't go against our word.[/quote]
Your analysis is helpful. I just disagree with you conclusion although the staff apparently does not. I think that is a blind spot that does us in every year when we lack depth in the paint and get abused by otherwise weaker teams - see DePaul, Georgetown, Providence etc. Your accounting of minutes only includes 25 minutes for a true low post presence. The other 15 we are naked, and many BE teams have two bigs that can play together and dominate us. If Keita has a tendency to foul trouble we could be screwed in multiple games again vs otherwise weaker opponents and pile up-Conference losses we can’t afford if we want to get to the dance.
Re the lack of minutes available for a solid grad transfer, say the player from UMASS, there’s no reason you can’t take 10 minutes from Trimble and Williams (whoever is more ready to go gets the minutes) and all of the rest of the minutes. Freshmen on teams like Villanova, Xavier, etc often sit a lot and get worked in as they mature. And they’re very happy when they get to go to the dance every year and compete for a championship, even though they have to wait their turn to play. None of the guys at the end of our lineup are 5 or even solid 4-star players so there should be no expectation of big minutes as freshman. And if Williams turns out to be a true 4-star guard and deserves more time he should get Trimble’s minutes. Next year without Ponds, Clark and probably Simon and a grad transfer if we got one this year they’ll be plenty of minutes for all. That the staff doesn’t seem to agree with this and isn’t going to pursue excellent options like the kid from UMASS blows my mind and makes me doubt that SJU will ever become a consistently effective BE program while led by this staff. I’m a big big fan of Chris Mullin as a player and a human being but his philosophy for the team leads me to believe that we will all continue to be disappointed as we have been now for so many years with only a few years as exceptions.
