Pre Season Predictions 2023

This season will be a process and my confidence is sky high that we are headed in the right direction.

I was impressed with the speed of the roster rebuild, but was always aware we didn't sign a major conf coveted stud. I think Ledlum and Dingle will be major contributors and our depth a positive factor. Wilcher will get better and better. Luis is coming. Soriano post play improvement has been radical.

In short, lots of upside as far as I see. We may have to come on like gangbusters to have a post season shot, but the un-analytical feeling I've always had is this would be a bubble team. If not, will still be a great ride, and I know our coach still has the fire to demand that his guys win but at the same time has the patience of a great teacher.

Dayton has a great fan base - admirable. Our core, much smaller, has the nucleus to grow into a similar base. Been fun to meet so many of you in Charleston. Go Johnnies!
 
Beasts of the East said:
This season will be a process and my confidence is sky high that we are headed in the right direction.

I was impressed with the speed of the roster rebuild, but was always aware we didn't sign a major conf coveted stud. I think Ledlum and Dingle will be major contributors and our depth a positive factor. Wilcher will get better and better. Luis is coming. Soriano post play improvement has been radical.

In short, lots of upside as far as I see. We may have to come on like gangbusters to have a post season shot, but the un-analytical feeling I've always had is this would be a bubble team. If not, will still be a great ride, and I know our coach still has the fire to demand that his guys win but at the same time has the patience of a great teacher.

Dayton has a great fan base - admirable. Our core, much smaller, has the nucleus to grow into a similar base. Been fun to meet so many of you in Charleston. Go Johnnies!
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We have put together real solid stretches on play- but not a full game yet. Is there any doubt that Rick won't get these guys there?

Maybe the majority of our expectations of player ability haven't been met out of the gate... but I have no doubt that Rick will get the most he can out of everyone on the roster.

Think we see much more cohesive unit by the Xavier game.
 
Not playing 40 minutes was the curse of last year’s team.
 
Knight said:
I have confidence that this team will be better come January. The process is painful, however.
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I've seen positives from most of the team. Wilcher looking more comfortable, Zuby looked much better vs. Dayton. Taylor and Joel have had moments. Even Dingle had a couple of minutes yesterday that looked promising. Will wait for all pieces to gel and hoping by Feb they are clicking.
 
GeorgiaRed said:
I've seen positives from most of the team. Wilcher looking more comfortable, Zuby looked much better vs. Dayton. Taylor and Joel have had moments. Even Dingle had a couple of minutes yesterday that looked promising. Will wait for all pieces to gel and hoping by Feb they are clicking.
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Why does it always have to be February, was hoping by the X game, but could wait until January, February is alittle to long.

Heck the season could be horrible by then.
 
SJUWillRockNYC said:
Why does it always have to be February, was hoping by the X game, but could wait until January, February is alittle to long.

Heck the season could be horrible by then.
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I think we will see a very different team at the Xavier game.

They have looked better in various aspects each game- we have seen certain players look better for stretches.

Not sure if we get the Win against Utah- but we'll have Holy Cross / Sacred Heart in the friendly confines of CA to get "right" - and work in RJ. BC and Fordham at Barclays and MSG. These i have no doubt will be 4 wins.

6-3 (hopefully 7-2) entering the Xavier game at CA. We'll see a new team.
 
Now that we are closer to Big East season, and will soon enough see what we really have at this point, some thoughts, but definitely not ready for a prediction.

Here's how I see it, in this crazy quantitative system of evaluating wins and losses:

In the Big East besides St. John's:

Good to very good teams: Villanova, Marquette, Creighton, UCONN, Xavier

Mediocre to Bad: Butler, DePaul, Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall

Splitting the league this way, record means less than Quad 1 wins. We could go 9-1 against the bottom half of the league, but if we go 2-8 against the top half, likely may be on the wrong side of the bubble even at 11-9.

On the other hand, if we go 5-5 against the top half of league and 6-4 against the bottom half, we are much more likely to get a bid.

So obviously the goal is to mop up the bottom half of the league, but more importantly, be very competitive against the top 5 teams as well.

Not a prediction, but a reasonable strategy on the outlook for the season.
 
I think we need sweeps against DePaul, Georgetown and Seton Hall. That isn't a super easy task, but those are bad teams. If we're as good as we should be, we win those games, period. That would bring us to 6 wins.

If we split against Butler and Providence, then that gets us to 8 wins.

That really just means we 4-6 to get to 12 wins. I think splitting with Xavier and Villanova should be the expectation. I also think we can split with Creighton. They aren't super athletic or have much depth. We will do well against those teams.

UCONN and Marquette are going to be really tough.
 
Beasts of the East said:
Now that we are closer to Big East season, and will soon enough see what we really have at this point, some thoughts, but definitely not ready for a prediction.

Here's how I see it, in this crazy quantitative system of evaluating wins and losses:

In the Big East besides St. John's:

Good to very good teams: Villanova, Marquette, Creighton, UCONN, Xavier

Mediocre to Bad: Butler, DePaul, Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall

Splitting the league this way, record means less than Quad 1 wins. We could go 9-1 against the bottom half of the league, but if we go 2-8 against the top half, likely may be on the wrong side of the bubble even at 11-9.

On the other hand, if we go 5-5 against the top half of league and 6-4 against the bottom half, we are much more likely to get a bid.

So obviously the goal is to mop up the bottom half of the league, but more importantly, be very competitive against the top 5 teams as well.

Not a prediction, but a reasonable strategy on the outlook for the season.
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Thank you for this!

I wanted to point this out, that with the NCAAs "crazy quantitative system of evaluating wins and losses" it's not going to be the record, but where the wins and losses come from. But you nailed it, so I don't have to try. And since it's still 12/1 I won't even categorize the top, middle or bottom yet, although the top two and bottom two seem to be getting very clear.
 
Beasts of the East said:
Now that we are closer to Big East season, and will soon enough see what we really have at this point, some thoughts, but definitely not ready for a prediction.

Here's how I see it, in this crazy quantitative system of evaluating wins and losses:

In the Big East besides St. John's:

Good to very good teams: Villanova, Marquette, Creighton, UCONN, Xavier

Mediocre to Bad: Butler, DePaul, Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall

Splitting the league this way, record means less than Quad 1 wins. We could go 9-1 against the bottom half of the league, but if we go 2-8 against the top half, likely may be on the wrong side of the bubble even at 11-9.

On the other hand, if we go 5-5 against the top half of league and 6-4 against the bottom half, we are much more likely to get a bid.

So obviously the goal is to mop up the bottom half of the league, but more importantly, be very competitive against the top 5 teams as well.

Not a prediction, but a reasonable strategy on the outlook for the season.
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This is too much of a binary. Providence and Butler are better than mediocre. Providence is 6-1 with wins over Georgia and Wisconsin and a narrow loss to Kansas State. Butler is 6-2 with wins over Texas Tech, Boise State, Penn State, and a 5-point loss to #13 FAU.

Even Seton Hall and Georgetown are 5-2.

The only team I’m prepared to say is bad right is DePaul. The reality is if we go 4-2 against the bottom 3 teams in the conference, you take that and run with it. Just try to avoid getting swept by the top 3.
 
Marillac2 said:
This is too much of a binary. Providence and Butler are better than mediocre. Providence is 6-1 with wins over Georgia and Wisconsin and a narrow loss to Kansas State. Butler is 6-2 with wins over Texas Tech, Boise State, Penn State, and a 5-point loss to #13 FAU.

Even Seton Hall and Georgetown are 5-2.

The only team I’m prepared to say is bad right is DePaul. The reality is if we go 4-2 against the bottom 3 teams in the conference, you take that and run with it. Just try to avoid getting swept by the top 3.
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Georgetown is pretty miserable. They barely beat American and Jackson St, lost to Rutgers & Holy Cross.
 
dk423 said:
Georgetown is pretty miserable. They barely beat American and Jackson St, lost to Rutgers & Holy Cross.
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I think they ultimately are the second worst team in the conference, but the chasm between Georgetown and DePaul could be wide.

They have some players that can beat you when they are really on. Epps can drop 30 any given night. Heath could be a problem for us too.
 
dk423 said:
Georgetown is pretty miserable. They barely beat American and Jackson St, lost to Rutgers & Holy Cross.
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I think Georgetown is a good example of how hard it is to come into a mess and immediately turn it around. And I say this knowing they have an excellent recruiting class lined up for next year. I'm going to duck after I type this, but I think when you look at that recruiting class it shows where the NIL money has to come from. Because I don't think those 2024 recruits picked Georgetown because of their excellent academics.

When you see a Georgetown game on TV it looks like a replay of the Covid year. With no cardboard cutouts. It makes it hard for me to believe there is a large, volume based, every little dollar adds up NIL fund. That would mean regular hardworking people are paying for NIL but not even attending the games. Appearances to me is Georgetown has lined up wealthy donors, and that one hundred percent tracks with why Cooley left Providence for the job.

Cooley, like Jesse James, knows you go where the money is. I think Pitino knows this too, and also Matt, and that's why I'm not worried about NIL in the present day.

But look, I bought two of the NIL shirts, and I don't even like them. I'm not totally unreasonable.
 
Marillac2 said:
I think they ultimately are the second worst team in the conference, but the chasm between Georgetown and DePaul could be wide.

They have some players that can beat you when they are really on. Epps can drop 30 any given night. Heath could be a problem for us too.
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The flip side to Epps and Heath is the former plays rather average defense while the latter plays zero defense. So, what they bring offensively could potentially end up being a wash overall.

Frankly, I think DePaul split the season series with Georgetown.
 
Hardy said:
Being optimistic, I think the road to 12 wins is:

4-0 vs DePaul, Hoyas
6-4 vs friars, butler, SH, X, nova
2-4 vs Uconn, Marq, Creighton
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I think a lot hinges on the health of Luis now. Having him available really lengthens our rotation and allows us to employ a number of different lineup configurations. We can get to 12 if Luis is healthy if not I think 12 might be tough.
 
I’m watching Houston and Xavier now. Xavier a little overmatched but they look extremely well coached and play hard.

The Big East is going to be a freaking gauntlet this year.
 
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