[quote="REB" post=325665]I'm really hoping for a win here but watching how subject we are to matchups, mostly because of our size limitations but also because of our lack of ability to effectively play multiple defensive schemes, I'm pretty doubtful. Xavier starts guys 6-11, 6-9, 6-7, 6-4, and 6-3. Their first two guys off the bench who log just over and just under 20 minutes each are 6-10 and 6-4. Our tallest starter will be the same height as their SF. Both of their starting bigs are shooting more than 60% from the field and 6-7 Naji Marshall is shooting 50% from 2. Translation, they score inside! Only one starter, Scruggs is an excellent 3-pt shooter at over 40%; the rest are poor from 3. Their 6-10 sub is their other good shooter from 3. In a man defense we will be dwarfed inside and they will score at will, beat us with second chance points when they do miss, and get our whole team in foul trouble. This matchup screams for us to zone them and dare Marshall and Quentin Gooden to beat us from outside. Frustrate them from doing what they're used to and even if they make some threes early on they will come back to their averages in the end. When they sub in 6-10 Welage who shoots well and takes almost 80% of his shots from three, if Scruggs is still in, put Keita or Roberts in on their other big and go back to man. But this is all contingent on us being able to play an effective zone defense and able to secure defensive rebounds in a zone, something we even have a hard time doing in man. I haven't really seen either happen this season so it leaves us at the mercy of a brutal mismatch in the paint. If we can't effectively defend them and at least slow them down in the paint we will absolutely need to beat them in TO's by 7 or 8 AND shoot 40% from 3 to win. How many people here would put money on either stopping them in the paint or accomplishing those two objectives on O? Not many I imagine if it was real money. The other path to a W for us is the Shamorie Ponds wild card. Can he put the team on his back and put up 30-40 points and win it for us down the stretch. I'd love to see that but he'll have to do it against physical guards who are several inches taller than him and then finish against their very big front line. A tall order for sure, pun intended. I see that it seems to piss a few posters off to be pessimistic about winning either game from Xavier, but I think you have to be really shutting your eyes to the obvious not to be very concerned.[/quote]
Good points and valid concerns. But, we’re not facing Bill Walton and Swen Nater
