(PRE-GAME) Xavier, Thur. Feb. 28, 6:30pm, FS-1 / 970AM

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Mike Zaun Wrote: Jeez guys, many of you are acting like we are playing 1 seed Xavier. You do realize they're rebuilding right? Mack is long gone. Of course they deserve respect, but this is not Duke. Don't get me wrong, we can easily lose but if we do it says more about us than it does about them IMO. We play maddeningly inconsistently and have a knack for dogging it after big wins. Matchup, smatchup...we are 78% favorites to win. Ironically it seems like 78% of the people in this thread are already counting this as a likely loss mentally. Wasn't SHU supposed to be much bigger? They owned us rebounding, but we still dominated them for much of the game. If you don't think we have the much more talented and much more experienced team that should be clear favorites in this game, you likely never will. The gap in talent and experience will never be wider than it is this year between us and Xavier. I think they are an okay team but they regress back to earth after a 4 game streak. We can very well lose, but we definitely aren't supposed to on paper.

We weren't supposed to lose to Providence on paper or to DePaul either. For the same money Marquette was supposed to be better than us on paper too, but on paper has meant very little in the Big East this year. It is more about matchups and other factors. I am certainly hopeful of a win against Xavier but if I were picking whether we would win or lose games based on what was on paper or even my gut instincts my batting average would not be very high this season.
 
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I'm really hoping for a win here but watching how subject we are to matchups, mostly because of our size limitations but also because of our lack of ability to effectively play multiple defensive schemes, I'm pretty doubtful. Xavier starts guys 6-11, 6-9, 6-7, 6-4, and 6-3. Their first two guys off the bench who log just over and just under 20 minutes each are 6-10 and 6-4. Our tallest starter will be the same height as their SF. Both of their starting bigs are shooting more than 60% from the field and 6-7 Naji Marshall is shooting 50% from 2. Translation, they score inside! Only one starter, Scruggs is an excellent 3-pt shooter at over 40%; the rest are poor from 3. Their 6-10 sub is their other good shooter from 3. In a man defense we will be dwarfed inside and they will score at will, beat us with second chance points when they do miss, and get our whole team in foul trouble. This matchup screams for us to zone them and dare Marshall and Quentin Gooden to beat us from outside. Frustrate them from doing what they're used to and even if they make some threes early on they will come back to their averages in the end. When they sub in 6-10 Welage who shoots well and takes almost 80% of his shots from three, if Scruggs is still in, put Keita or Roberts in on their other big and go back to man. But this is all contingent on us being able to play an effective zone defense and able to secure defensive rebounds in a zone, something we even have a hard time doing in man. I haven't really seen either happen this season so it leaves us at the mercy of a brutal mismatch in the paint. If we can't effectively defend them and at least slow them down in the paint we will absolutely need to beat them in TO's by 7 or 8 AND shoot 40% from 3 to win. How many people here would put money on either stopping them in the paint or accomplishing those two objectives on O? Not many I imagine if it was real money. The other path to a W for us is the Shamorie Ponds wild card. Can he put the team on his back and put up 30-40 points and win it for us down the stretch. I'd love to see that but he'll have to do it against physical guards who are several inches taller than him and then finish against their very big front line. A tall order for sure, pun intended. I see that it seems to piss a few posters off to be pessimistic about winning either game from Xavier, but I think you have to be really shutting your eyes to the obvious not to be very concerned.
 
A zone is a good idea, but the question is whether or not we have that in our arsenal. When we brought it out against duke it didn’t really look like we knew what we were doing.

This game against X would be a nice time to try it again but do a better job rotating
 
[quote="Jack Williams" post=325666]A zone is a good idea, but the question is whether or not we have that in our arsenal. When we brought it out against duke it didn’t really look like we knew what we were doing.

This game against X would be a nice time to try it again but do a better job rotating[/quote]

Well Duke's a whole other story. Its really tough to stop them from getting into the lane in man and you can't really zone them. Xavier not in the same league. So we'll see if they zone and we'll see if they can do it well enough for it to work. At least it would be good if they could change up the D to keep them out of their comfort zone, a little 2-3, a little full court man and some traps. Keep them thinking and keep the ball out of the damn paint!
 
Never thought I'd be the one arguing that we have a chance lol. Again, there's Xavier luster because of their great teams recently, however this isn't one of them. They are rebuilding and have a new coach. They can be dangerous but they can also totally suck. If anyone has watched them, you will see offensively they have games they can't buy a bucket. They are very turnover prone. They have a good big or two...I get it. But what did Theo John do against us on Marq? Absolutely nothing. He's a beast and we all thought he'd eat us for breakfast. Strus didn't really dominate us. Seton Hall is a big team that didn't do much against us. Of course Olujabi owned us and we have struggled at times against big teams like DePaul (sans Strus) and PC (only we struggle against them). But to act like this Xavier team is a powerhouse with Shaq in his prime is silly IMO. Maybe they really did peak at the right time and they beat us by 30...I don't know. All I know is my gut and it says they come back to earth after playing out of their minds lately. Pretty rare a new team with a new coach can sustain that for long. The thing that worries me about X is that they don't settle for jumpers a lot...they actually try to bang down low and seem to prefer playing closer to the rim on offense. This should still be a win though...we are clearly better and we are at home. Bowing down to a rebuilding X team in our biggest season in years is embarrassing.
 
This is a really bizarre thread. Xavier fans reading this are probably confused. I understand that our team can’t be trusted off a win, but c’mon fellas.

This is a 13-loss team. If we show up against good teams, we win. If we show up against them, we win by double-digits. We need to be thinking about an impressive blowout for the NET rankings not worrying about getting swept.
 
Need to get their bigs in foul trouble early.
Pressure D to force their guards into turnovers. Switch defenses, use some zone.
Stay out of foul trouble.
Use the bench.
I have no clue which Johnnies team shows up at CA. May be Shamorie's last home game. Marvin's last in Queens.
 
As I said, everything begins with us hitting our threes and then getting them into a transition game where we can beat their bigs down the floor so they are not even a factor defensively. If we fail at either of those things we will not win. I agree with us driving the ball and getting their bigs into foul trouble when we have to be in a halfcourt set. But, what will enable us to do that is us hitting our threes early drawing the defense out and creating driving lanes. Otherwise, they will just pack it in and we will be hoisting up bad three after bad three and when we driving get called for a number of charges because there are no driving lanes. It will be Providence all over again. Here's hoping for a good start shooting the ball which open up everything else for us. If we can do that I'm not worried about our defense because when we are clicking offensively our defensive effort goes up astronomically.
 
[quote="Knight" post=325690]Need to get their bigs in foul trouble early.
Pressure D to force their guards into turnovers. Switch defenses, use some zone.
Stay out of foul trouble.
Use the bench.
I have no clue which Johnnies team shows up at CA. May be Shamorie's last home game. Marvin's last in Queens.[/quote]
Looking forward to a nice CA send off for Shamorie & Marv for sure. Ponds especially has been quite a boost to program and bet he has a good one Thursday.
 
If the good version of our team shows up Thursday we should win. Its that simple in my opinion. "Matchup nightmares" aside, if we play to our advantages then we could win on any given day or night to anyone in the country. I cant wait for this game and will be rooting hard and loud. Not sure how early i can get to the game but does anyone meet up before the games on campus for a couple brews and if so where?
 
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[quote="Mike Zaun" post=325663]Jeez guys, many of you are acting like we are playing 1 seed Xavier. You do realize they're rebuilding right? Mack is long gone. Of course they deserve respect, but this is not Duke. Don't get me wrong, we can easily lose but if we do it says more about us than it does about them IMO. We play maddeningly inconsistently and have a knack for dogging it after big wins. Matchup, smatchup...we are 78% favorites to win. Ironically it seems like 78% of the people in this thread are already counting this as a likely loss mentally. Wasn't SHU supposed to be much bigger? They owned us rebounding, but we still dominated them for much of the game. If you don't think we have the much more talented and much more experienced team that should be clear favorites in this game, you likely never will. The gap in talent and experience will never be wider than it is this year between us and Xavier. I think they are an okay team but they regress back to earth after a 4 game streak. We can very well lose, but we definitely aren't supposed to on paper.[/quote]

This post is a great example of why people on this board come here having a meltdown before or after bad games. We're not a good enough team to be immune to bad matchups. I'm sorry if you haven't learned anything from the Providence and DePaul games.
 
[quote="Room112" post=325709][quote="Mike Zaun" post=325663]Jeez guys, many of you are acting like we are playing 1 seed Xavier. You do realize they're rebuilding right? Mack is long gone. Of course they deserve respect, but this is not Duke. Don't get me wrong, we can easily lose but if we do it says more about us than it does about them IMO. We play maddeningly inconsistently and have a knack for dogging it after big wins. Matchup, smatchup...we are 78% favorites to win. Ironically it seems like 78% of the people in this thread are already counting this as a likely loss mentally. Wasn't SHU supposed to be much bigger? They owned us rebounding, but we still dominated them for much of the game. If you don't think we have the much more talented and much more experienced team that should be clear favorites in this game, you likely never will. The gap in talent and experience will never be wider than it is this year between us and Xavier. I think they are an okay team but they regress back to earth after a 4 game streak. We can very well lose, but we definitely aren't supposed to on paper.[/quote]

This post is a great example of why people on this board come here having a meltdown before or after bad games. We're not a good enough team to be immune to bad matchups. I'm sorry if you haven't learned anything from the Providence and DePaul games.[/quote]

We lost to Providence and DePaul because we didn’t have 1a and 1b. That’s it. Any game on the road in this conference this year has to be stolen. We can certainly lose to Xavier (or anyone) if we don’t show up. Every poster understands that reality. There’s not a damn thing Xavier can do it we do show up though.
 
My whole point is we could show up and play well and still lose because of the bad matchup.

Zaun no one is saying we don’t have a chance. This game is no doubt gonna be a good one. One we can win. It seems like because I’ve been arguing that it’s a bad matchup you guys think that I think Xavier is some insane team.

I don’t. But a bad matchup is a bad matchup. If you guys think heron changes the outcome of the first providence game that’s your prerogative. I was there and let me tell you we were overwhelmed out there. Unless Mustapha was planning on having the best game of his life I don’t think he turns that one around. If he was such an X factor for us than we shouldn’t have gotten destroyed on the road. But the rebounding problems remained.

I don’t get it. This board falls apart after a loss and thinks we are unbeatable after a win now. If providence can out rebound us by 20 and blow us out, there’s cause for concern when we are about to play a team that bullied providence on the boards.

I’m NOT saying it’s gonna happen but there’s just reason to be concerned, and posters are expressing that in a pre game thread. I don’t see the problem. Before the seton hall game posted that they aren’t a big team and they don’t rebound well, so I thought we’d win and we did. Now this game the opponent is a bit of a different story so I said so. Doesn’t mean we are guaranteed to lose. No way. We are lights out at CA. Except butler was one shot away from beating us there, and oh we were -11 on the boards.
 
[quote="Jack Williams" post=325718]My whole point is we could show up and play well and still lose because of the bad matchup.

Zaun no one is saying we don’t have a chance. This game is no doubt gonna be a good one. One we can win. It seems like because I’ve been arguing that it’s a bad matchup you guys think that I think Xavier is some insane team.

I don’t. But a bad matchup is a bad matchup. If you guys think heron changes the outcome of the first providence game that’s your prerogative. I was there and let me tell you we were overwhelmed out there. Unless Mustapha was planning on having the best game of his life I don’t think he turns that one around. If he was such an X factor for us than we shouldn’t have gotten destroyed on the road. But the rebounding problems remained.

I don’t get it. This board falls apart after a loss and thinks we are unbeatable after a win now. If providence can out rebound us by 20 and blow us out, there’s cause for concern when we are about to play a team that bullied providence on the boards.

I’m NOT saying it’s gonna happen but there’s just reason to be concerned, and posters are expressing that in a pre game thread. I don’t see the problem. Before the seton hall game posted that they aren’t a big team and they don’t rebound well, so I thought we’d win and we did. Now this game the opponent is a bit of a different story so I said so. Doesn’t mean we are guaranteed to lose. No way. We are lights out at CA. Except butler was one shot away from beating us there, and oh we were -11 on the boards.[/quote]
Sensible post Jack.
 
30 years working in psychiatric hospitals and I have to learn the true meaning of schizophrenia by reading a thread where Zaun is the optimist.
 
Like most in this thread I'm anxious about the game too, but we did just win 3/4 games and also 5/7 in the BE since our mediocre 3-5 start. Just imagine what the board would be like if we didn't do so well this past month lol.

Any predictions on the line? I'll say SJU -5.
 
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I have learned, trust me...but Xavier is being treated like a monster here. Instead of focusing on them, I'd focus on us...if we play hungry and smart with our 3's falling and get lots of TO's getting out in transition, we will win this game. The only way they beat us IMO is if we play one of those games where we look totally indifferent and take stupid shots all game without driving. I don't think they can keep up with us on offense if we are making our shots at around a 40% clip from 3. We are still very overdue for a red hot shooting game from beyond the arc. It's been like high 20%-low 30% for what feels like forever.

Xavier defense: 231st
Ours: 98th

Xavier offense: 98
Ours: 90

Xavier turnover margin: 312th
Ours: 4th

Xavier 3PT% allowed to opponents: 233rd
Ours: 114th

Xavier 3PT%: 223rd (33.7%)
Ours: 82nd (36.5%)

Xavier RB Margin: 76th
Ours: 332nd



To sum up: the only way they really hurt us badly is if our 3's aren't falling and they dominate the boards without turning the ball over like crazy. Their defense is bad and we should be able to score on them. Their turnover margin is horrific compared to ours on complete opposite ends. If we can turn them over, gang rebound, and make our 3's at a decent clip, we will be fine. Our big advantages are in bold. The only thing they totally dominate stats wise against us is rebounding. If we can keep our great TO ratio going, that can help offset it. We are a bad matchup for them in several ways too with their 3PT allowance to opponents, poor defense, and very poor TO margin.
 
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[quote="Jack Williams" post=325718]My whole point is we could show up and play well and still lose because of the bad matchup.

Zaun no one is saying we don’t have a chance. This game is no doubt gonna be a good one. One we can win. It seems like because I’ve been arguing that it’s a bad matchup you guys think that I think Xavier is some insane team.

I don’t. But a bad matchup is a bad matchup. If you guys think heron changes the outcome of the first providence game that’s your prerogative. I was there and let me tell you we were overwhelmed out there. Unless Mustapha was planning on having the best game of his life I don’t think he turns that one around. If he was such an X factor for us than we shouldn’t have gotten destroyed on the road. But the rebounding problems remained.

I don’t get it. This board falls apart after a loss and thinks we are unbeatable after a win now. If providence can out rebound us by 20 and blow us out, there’s cause for concern when we are about to play a team that bullied providence on the boards.

I’m NOT saying it’s gonna happen but there’s just reason to be concerned, and posters are expressing that in a pre game thread. I don’t see the problem. Before the seton hall game posted that they aren’t a big team and they don’t rebound well, so I thought we’d win and we did. Now this game the opponent is a bit of a different story so I said so. Doesn’t mean we are guaranteed to lose. No way. We are lights out at CA. Except butler was one shot away from beating us there, and oh we were -11 on the boards.[/quote]

I have been consistent all year. This is a flawed tournament team. Xavier is a more flawed team. I think it’s a great matchup for us.
 
Nice analysis Mike. I do agree, the Xavier defensive stats are not good and neither are their turnover stats. These could be advantages for us. The one thing I will add, which I think is causing a lot of posters to be nervous is that so many outcomes come down to how we match up. We match up better with teams like Villanova, Marquette, and Seton Hall than we do with teams like Providence, Georgetown and even Depaul. If you look at the Xavier roster, they look more like the teams we haven't matched up well against this season. IMHO those games you refer to where we look totally indifferent is often because the opponent is making us look that way due to us not matching up well. We'll definitely know more about how we match up with Xavier after we play them once. Hopefully all our worries are for nothing and you're assessment is 100% correct. That's why they play the games.
 
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