North Carolina: The School That Rocks Basketball Logic
The Tar Heels resist the game’s modern trends by avoiding three-pointers—and yet they’re still a threat to win the NCAA tournament
By BEN COHEN WALL STREET JOURNAL
March 24, 2016
If the only basketball you’ve watched this year is the Golden State Warriors, then you have no idea that this sport isn’t always the most fun anyone can have in sneakers. You probably think that basketball teams are supposed to cripple their opponents with infectious joy. You might also have come to believe that shots closer to the halfcourt line than the free-throw line are perfectly normal.
All you have to do to remember the Warriors are a team of basketball aliens is turn on the NCAA tournament. And there is no team that makes the Warriors look more like monsters from a faraway planet than No. 1 seed North Carolina.
“You could say,” said Tar Heels guard Nate Britt, “they’re the complete opposite.”
It turns out North Carolina is as unusual as Golden State—but in another way altogether. There are 351 teams in college basketball, and the Tar Heels rank 336th in field goals attempted at the rim and 340th in their percentage of shots that are 3-pointers. These are the sport’s most valuable shots, but Carolina essentially ignores them.
Most teams that turn their noses at these kinds of shots would be stuck watching the NCAA tournament on couches in their dorm rooms. But the Tar Heels are still alive in large part because they play this way. The last time their offense was as unstoppable as it is this season, in fact, they won the 2009 national championship. This is the most efficient inefficient team in college basketball.
In this era of fetishized efficiency, Carolina averages 1.2 points per possession, which ranks fifth in the nation, according to kenpom.com. But that’s because the Tar Heels’ guards get easy points in transition, their bigs score off offensive rebounds and their size stresses opposing defenses—not because they’re pulling up for 3-pointers like a team of Stephen Curry clones.
“For me, inside first is best,” said Carolina coach Roy Williams. “I think there are more teams that have won national championships with an inside-first outlook than there have been with teams that shoot 35 threes. But that’s just my opinion.”
The rest of basketball has raced away in the other direction. The number of 3-point attempts per game this season is up 10% from the average across the last decade and 9% from last year alone.
It’s easy to understand why. Teams that are dynamite on 3-pointers have a huge advantage. It’s like stealing Robin Hood’s quiver and arming him with an Uzi. The Warriors and Michigan State have the most efficient offenses in the NBA and college basketball this year, and they also have the highest 3-point shooting percentages in the NBA and college basketball this year.
Carolina, meanwhile, uses the 3-pointer less than almost every school in the country. Threes account for 26.6% of their total shots. They make 31.4% of them. That translates to 19.6% of Carolina’s points coming from behind the arc.
That last number for the other Sweet Sixteen teams is 31%. No one else is under 25%. The distance between North Carolina and Oklahoma (38.6%) in their reliance on 3-pointers feels longer than the stretch of highway separating North Carolina and Duke.
There is no player who epitomizes Carolina’s strange position as much as the school’s all-time leading 3-point scorer—who is actually still on the team. Marcus Paige came into his senior season as a 38.8% shooter in Atlantic Coast Conference play and was coming off a season when he shot 41.5% against some of the country’s top competition. But after he broke the Carolina record he spent most of the year stuck in an unlikely shooting slump. Paige made just 27.9% of his ACC threes.
Carolina’s guards are as aware as anyone that they could be taking more threes if they went to another school. But they’re not exactly seething with envy.
“Most of the time it’s a terrible shot,” said Tar Heels guard Theo Pinson. “We have Brice Johnson, Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks. We don’t have to shoot threes.”
Johnson (6-foot-10), Hicks (6-foot-9) and Meeks (6-foot-10) are a matchup nightmare for almost every team left in the NCAA tournament. But it’s not because they stretch defenses. Carolina’s bigs have taken a combined total of zero 3-pointers this season.
“That’s just not our style of play,” said Meeks. “It’s never been that way, and I don’t think it will ever be that way.”
He still dreams about it, though. In the locker room on the day before Carolina’s first-round game last week, Meeks kept busy by challenging the shooting credentials of nearly everyone in sight, even though he missed the only 3-point attempt of his college career.
“Me and you,” he said. “Three-point contest. Who’s winning?”
Pinson glared at him as if he didn’t want to dignify Meeks with a response. But then he did anyway.
“There is no way he’s beating me,” Pinson said.
“I’m telling you,” Meeks said as he recommended his teammates review YouTube clips of his shooting performances from high school. “If I shot threes, y’all would be like wow. He’s really got that stroke.”
—Andrew Beaton contributed to this article.
Write to Ben Cohen at ben.cohen@wsj.com