March Madness

Lunardi (who's been tougher on us then most) just released his latest bracket today.

11 seed, last four byes (which means bypassing Dayton).

Tough to drop 5 spots (at least) this late in the game. So, a loss on Wednesday probably means Dayton (at least, in Lunardi's mind).

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Also, he has NC State and Clemson as two of his last four in. Those teams play each other on Wednesday afternoon in the ACC Tournament. That's probably a play-in game, which is probably a good thing for us (I would think). While the winner maybe escapes Dayton, the loser is probably out altogether. That makes one less bubble team for us to worry about.
 
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Win Wednesday and we are in. Loss Wednesday id expect play in game with potential to be out if there’s a couple of bid stealers this week
 
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[quote="Jack Williams" post=329349]Win Wednesday and we are in. Loss Wednesday id expect play in game with potential to be out if there’s a couple of bid stealers this week[/quote]

Just some quick analysis based on the latest bracketology. You can see the teams behind St John's. Here's how we can lose and still make it.

Belmont, Lipscomb and Furman have already lost and are out of their tournaments.

We need St Mary's to not beat Gonzaga in their tournament.

We need Creighton to lose early in Big East tournament.

We need Wofford and Buffalo to win their conf tournaments because they will get an at large bid either way.

Clemson is facing NC State in their first game of ACC tourney so one of those will definitely lose.

Ohio State is facing Indiana in their first game in Big 10 tournament so that's another loss.

ON THE BUBBLE

Last Four Byes
St. John's
Texas
Florida
Temple

Last Four In
NC State
TCU
Clemson
Ohio State

First Four Out
Indiana
Belmont
Creighton
Alabama

Next Four Out
Lipscomb
Georgetown
Saint Mary's
Furman
 
Among the reasons for our disappointment. was that at the start of the season we were told that Dixon and Keita would have the same impact as Simon and Clarke last year. Who knew that Dixon would leave at the start of the big east season and who knows why Keita did not live up to his reputation ? I hope that next year players return and new players are better than thought.
 
[quote="frank" post=329351]Among the reasons for our disappointment. was that at the start of the season we were told that Dixon and Keita would have the same impact as Simon and Clarke last year. Who knew that Dixon would leave at the start of the big east season and who knows why Keita did not live up to his reputation ? I hope that next year players return and new players are better than thought.[/quote]

Unfortunately Matt is taking his fair share of criticism now for the staff instability. The proportion of players he has brought in that have not met expectations is noticeable from year one to the Dixon/Keita present. From casual reports Caraher and Wright will not fit well in Mullin's system. Hopefully the various setbacks will bring some changes but it was not all on coach Mullin as he was dealing with bigger issues.
 
IMO Matt has been doing the best he can given the situation he's in. If you're an opposing recruiter all they have to do is negatively recruit us. It's way too easy right now. Lavin proved major recruits will come here from all over the country. If Mullin won 23 and 25 games the past two years with 2 NCAA berths and a Big East Championship with some level of consistency, I think you'd see a major recruiting uptick, though I think our coaching still wouldn't maximize the potential even with good recruits. Matt's abilities are being cut in half being the only recruiter and recruiting for a program so easy to negatively recruit against.
 
[quote="frank" post=329351]Among the reasons for our disappointment. was that at the start of the season we were told that Dixon and Keita would have the same impact as Simon and Clarke last year. Who knew that Dixon would leave at the start of the big east season and who knows why Keita did not live up to his reputation ? I hope that next year players return and new players are better than thought.[/quote]

Anyone who watched the first 4 minutes Keita played before getting hurt could see that he was not going to play many minutes and is not very good.
 
[quote="RedStormNC" post=329221]I was curious to know who is on the NCAA selection committee… Here is the current make-up

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-committee


Here's the full selection criteria again as well ( I know this was posted when NET came out)
http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-selections[/quote]

Thanks RedstormNC.
This is helpful data for fanatics to get even more hyper.
Lol.
I think we need to beat DePaul...for ‘respect’ and a dance card.
 
[quote="Jack Williams" post=329293][quote="djramps" post=329282]If they lose in Wednesday, they will have lost 5 out of 6. With a 7th place finish in the BE and a loss on Wednesday I will be completely shocked if they make the tourney. If I were the committee how can you take a team with that terrible resume in their last games and a 7th place finish.[/quote]

I ask myself the same question. But then I see some other teams on the bubble and they make our skid look like a minor bump in the road. Indiana is squarely on the bubble despite having a stretch where they lost 12 of 13 games. No typo. 12 of 13. They have some good wins but if you lose 12 of 13 it baffles me how you could be on the bubble even in a soft bubble.

Ohio State is another team right near us on the bubble. They also lost 3 straight to end the year, and 6 of their last 8.

Texas Longhorns, lose 5 of their last 7, are 16-15 overall and somehow in the tournament safely in most brackets.

Florida Gators enter SEC tourney on a 3 game losing streak, 17-4 overall.

The more I look at it, most of these bubble teams have gone on skids entering post season play, it’s actually pretty astounding.[/quote]

Thanks Jack. Geez, maybe we do get in, regardless of Wednesday’s outcome.
But it’d be humbling and leave me with a sour taste to make it like that.
 
[quote="Jack Williams" post=329296]Considering the rest of the bubble and looking at how they’ve all been playing, I can say pretty confidently that a win Wednesday should get us in.

Expecting a loss, but hoping they win because Marquette is scared of us would love to lock them up one more time[/quote]

My gut says we’ll beat DePaul Wednesday. The slate for all the teams is 0-0 and I think our guys will be relieved and motivated.
Also, it’s a chore to beat the same team 3x in a short season...which is why I’ll be nervous facing Marquette Thursday.
 
[quote="Chicago Days" post=329374]

Thanks Jack. Geez, maybe we do get in, regardless of Wednesday’s outcome.
But it’d be humbling and leave me with a sour taste to make it like that.[/quote]

I agree, definitely would leave a sour taste in my mouth.

In other news, St. John's is currently a 10 on BracketMatrix.com (which aggregates a whole bunch of bracketologists), which goes to what Jack has been saying about the competition on the bubble being very weak.
 
[quote="Frank Molfetta" post=329378][quote="Chicago Days" post=329374]

Thanks Jack. Geez, maybe we do get in, regardless of Wednesday’s outcome.
But it’d be humbling and leave me with a sour taste to make it like that.[/quote]

I agree, definitely would leave a sour taste in my mouth.

In other news, St. John's is currently a 10 on BracketMatrix.com (which aggregates a whole bunch of bracketologists), which goes to what Jack has been saying about the competition on the bubble being very weak.[/quote]

But, at what point would that sour taste go away? Second weekend?

Because I guarantee you, on the off, off, chance we go to the Final Four after getting in following a loss on Wednesday, I don't think any of us on here are going to be feeling sour about anything.

I'll cheer if our name is called on Sunday, no matter what.
 
[quote="MJDinkins" post=329165][quote="gman" post=329161]Belmont, San Diego State and Lipscomb all 1 seeds in their conferences that went down today.[/quote]

Belmont lost last night, but they still may still receive a bid. Murray State may have stolen a bid from someone. So, you have to worry about a conference that was initially gonna send one team, but may end up sending two teams. You've made a mistake by mentioning San Diego State.

For instance, we have to hope Wofford wins their conference tourney. No one outside of Wofford will receive an at-large bid. If Wofford loses, then the Southern Conference will send two teams.

I'm not sure Lipscomb will receive a bid now they've lost in their conference tourney. So, I can't say if Liberty actually stole a bid from anyone else other than Lipscomb.[/quote]


Last week one of the guest on the Mad Dog Show felt both Belmont and Lipscomb should get in regardless of any loss in the conference tourney.
 
Too tired to read most the preceding posts, but as of today, we're seventh in a very down conference that doesn't deserve more than four invites. And on top of that, a good number of our early season wins came against cupcakes, so our overall record is inflated and misleading, and our BE wins against Nova and Marquette no longer look as impressive as they once did. Granted, three wins the BE tourney should get us a NCAA bid, but based on how this team has been playing lately, chances of that happening are slim and none.
 
[quote="redken" post=329400]Too tired to read most the preceding posts, but as of today, we're seventh in a very down conference that doesn't deserve more than four invites. And on top of that, a good number of our early season wins came against cupcakes, so our overall record is inflated and misleading, and our BE wins against Nova and Marquette no longer look as impressive as they once did. Granted, three wins the BE tourney should get us a NCAA bid, but based on how this team has been playing lately, chances of that happening are slim and none.[/quote]

Fortunately the NCAA doesn't care what place we are in, how many invites the BE "deserves", or how we finish. They don't consider any of that. Our 3 wins against Nova and Marquette are all still Q1.

1 win and we're a luck. Only way we aren't is if all the bracketologists are completely off, or if there are an unusually high number of bid thieves.
 
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[quote="JackofVirginia" post=329395][quote="MJDinkins" post=329165][quote="gman" post=329161]Belmont, San Diego State and Lipscomb all 1 seeds in their conferences that went down today.[/quote]

Belmont lost last night, but they still may still receive a bid. Murray State may have stolen a bid from someone. So, you have to worry about a conference that was initially gonna send one team, but may end up sending two teams. You've made a mistake by mentioning San Diego State.

For instance, we have to hope Wofford wins their conference tourney. No one outside of Wofford will receive an at-large bid. If Wofford loses, then the Southern Conference will send two teams.

I'm not sure Lipscomb will receive a bid now they've lost in their conference tourney. So, I can't say if Liberty actually stole a bid from anyone else other than Lipscomb.[/quote]


Last week one of the guest on the Mad Dog Show felt both Belmont and Lipscomb should get in regardless of any loss in the conference tourney.[/quote]

I do believe, as I stated above, Belmont may receive an at-large bid. Not sure if Lipscomb will receive one. It's possible.

We have to keep an eye out on Furman or UNC-Greensboro as well. One of 'em could also potentially receive an at-large bid. I don't think either one will, but ya never know. Just hope Wofford wins the Southern Conference Tournament because if they lose then it's guaranteed they'll get two bids.
 
[quote="SJU61982" post=329386][quote="Frank Molfetta" post=329378][quote="Chicago Days" post=329374]

Thanks Jack. Geez, maybe we do get in, regardless of Wednesday’s outcome.
But it’d be humbling and leave me with a sour taste to make it like that.[/quote]

I agree, definitely would leave a sour taste in my mouth.

In other news, St. John's is currently a 10 on BracketMatrix.com (which aggregates a whole bunch of bracketologists), which goes to what Jack has been saying about the competition on the bubble being very weak.[/quote]

But, at what point would that sour taste go away? Second weekend?

Because I guarantee you, on the off, off, chance we go to the Final Four after getting in following a loss on Wednesday, I don't think any of us on here are going to be feeling sour about anything.

I'll cheer if our name is called on Sunday, no matter what.[/quote]

You must write suspense novels with happy endings, SJU61982!
You nailed it.
Lol.
 
[quote="Adam" post=329401][quote="redken" post=329400]Too tired to read most the preceding posts, but as of today, we're seventh in a very down conference that doesn't deserve more than four invites. And on top of that, a good number of our early season wins came against cupcakes, so our overall record is inflated and misleading, and our BE wins against Nova and Marquette no longer look as impressive as they once did. Granted, three wins the BE tourney should get us a NCAA bid, but based on how this team has been playing lately, chances of that happening are slim and none.[/quote]

Fortunately the NCAA doesn't care what place we are in, how many invites the BE "deserves", or how we finish. They don't consider any of that. Our 3 wins against Nova and Marquette are all still Q1.

1 win and we're a luck. Only way we aren't is if all the bracketologists are completely off, or if there are an unusually high number of bid thieves.[/quote]

Thanks Adam.
Oh for a win Wednesday...
 
[quote="Chicago Days" post=329409][quote="SJU61982" post=329386]But, at what point would that sour taste go away? Second weekend?

Because I guarantee you, on the off, off, chance we go to the Final Four after getting in following a loss on Wednesday, I don't think any of us on here are going to be feeling sour about anything.

I'll cheer if our name is called on Sunday, no matter what.[/quote]

You must write suspense novels with happy endings, SJU61982!
You nailed it.
Lol.[/quote]

Or, he often visit massage parlors.
 
[quote="redken" post=329400]Too tired to read most the preceding posts, but as of today, we're seventh in a very down conference that doesn't deserve more than four invites. And on top of that, a good number of our early season wins came against cupcakes, so our overall record is inflated and misleading, and our BE wins against Nova and Marquette no longer look as impressive as they once did. Granted, three wins the BE tourney should get us a NCAA bid, but based on how this team has been playing lately, chances of that happening are slim and none.[/quote]

Someone else already said it, but most of the negatives you mentioned are not even looked at by the committee. The only relevant one is the soft non-conference schedule. But our overall SOS is respectable based on the strength of the Big East schedule. Look at NC State. They are on bubble too, with fewer wins, and fewer marque wins. Look at Texas, who is firmly in most brackets, played a tough schedule, but is likely to finish .500 after they lose in first round of Big12 tournament to Kansas.

Also, re: conference records and conference standings, Arizona State was 8-10 last year, 9th place in a 3-bid Pac12, with 20 wins overall. They also skidded into the post-season losing 5 out of their last 6 (including a first round Pac12 tournament exit) and they still made the NCAAs (first four, but still made it). The Johnnies will be a lock with 1 BET win, and will likely dance even without a BET win. St. John's average seed right now per bracketmatrix.com is a 10, and the teams below them have even worse resumes.
 
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