March Madness

[quote="L J S A" post=328034]How often do Lunardi or Palm nail matchups? I assume their percentage of predicting the 68 teams who get in is pretty high, and maybe for seed as well. But do their actual game predictions pan out with regularity?[/quote]

Outside of the top 1-3 seeds, they aren't very good, they don't even nail seed lines that much. It's more in or out, so if we are in almost every bracket come that Sunday, we should be feeling good.

Honestly with our Q1 and Q2 record, I'm thinking we are more in the 9/10 right now. We are #17 in the country for Q1 record.

https://herosports.com/ncaa-tournament/most-quadrant-1-wins-virginia-kstate-ahah


The committee wants teams that actually have a chance to win. We have a chance to beat 90% of the teams in the tourney. We also don't have ANY "bad" losses, Both of those metrics help our cause a ton.
 
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[quote="pobee10" post=328847]In all realism, what needs to be done to get a bid? A win Wednesday? 2 wins?[/quote]

A win Wednesday should do it but I don’t think the committee or anyone anticipated us playing the Wednesday game so the win might not carry much weight
 
We need to win two games in the BET. As of now , we don’t deserve to be anywhere near the NCAA Tourney.
 
[quote="Jack Williams" post=328848][quote="pobee10" post=328847]In all realism, what needs to be done to get a bid? A win Wednesday? 2 wins?[/quote]

A win Wednesday should do it but I don’t think the committee or anyone anticipated us playing the Wednesday game so the win might not carry much weight[/quote] Wednesday probably gets you Dayton, maybe in the field of 64 if things break right (which, if today is any indication, they won't). Remember, nobody in this league has terrible rankings.
 
Per Richard Deitch
Some (very good) sports media news:

CBS will be changing the NCAA Selection Show from last year's broadcast on TBS. No rolling out all the teams in alphabetical order this year. They will return to unveiling the teams in brackets when you first see them on the screen.
 
I didn't see this article posted here, sorry if it was

https://nypost.com/2019/03/07/it-will-be-hard-for-st-johns-not-to-make-the-ncaa-tournament/

“That’s not going to happen,” Palm said. “There’s no way they are going to miss [the tournament]. I can’t come up with something to see them in Dayton [for the First Four].”

“St. John’s is in good shape, especially when you compare them to the other bubble teams,” Wachtel said. “I went through 15,20 other teams I have after St. John’s, and right now there’s no argument to put them ahead of St. John’s.”

“It’s not likely for them to fall out, but if they end up somewhere in the 70’s [in the NET], if they lose the next two games, that’s where it gets interesting,” Ommen said.
 
I said a few weeks ago that if we finished 8-10 / 0-1 BET we would most likely (67% odds) make the Tournament. A few weeks later I still feel the same way. Palm is just one guy and he doesn't speak for the Committee. I don't agree with him that we are 100% a lock, those terms should only apply to teams that are universally accepted as Tournament teams, such as Nova or Marquette.

The team's NET has really been hurt since we tend to lose all these games by 10 points. Seriously, no idea how we manage to lose every game by the exact margin these numbers cap at. At least we still have 5 Q1 wins, but that could drop to 3 or 4.

Basically, yesterday was pretty much a worst case scenario in all regards. I expect a few more bumps in the road (bid thieves). If we win vs DePaul, then I'd feel relatively safe. For now, we aren't safe regardless of what Palm says.
 
I've been saying that even if they lose out they are in because the committee will be hard pressed to ignore their number of Quad 1 wins plus keep in mind that the committee no longer factors in how a team finishes and they don't look at conference standings. That said I am not sure I still believe it. A win on Wednesday would certainly make me feel better but nothing is going to come easy going forward. On a side note, if we do lose on Wednesday this might be the first time since maybe the 1988 season that we will truly be a bubble team. The 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2011 & 2015 teams were locks from my recollection.
 
It seems like we are according to the projected brackets. Lunardi dropped us from a 10 to 11. A loss probably puts us in the play-in game. The problem is you could have some upset in the conference tournies. Say Gtown or providence go on a run. Would they bump us?
 
[quote="gman" post=329128]It seems like we are according to the projected brackets. Lunardi dropped us from a 10 to 11. A loss probably puts us in the play-in game. The problem is you could have some upset in the conference tournies. Say Gtown or providence go on a run. Would they bump us?[/quote]

A few years ago didn't some under 500 team in a mid major conf, go on a run and win their tourny?
 
Win Wednesday, and we control our destiny. Loose, and our fate lays in the hands of others.
 
Would love to win our way in not lose 4 in a row and sweat out selection Sunday, one thing about being an SJU lifer there are NO LOCKS! Just a lot of disappointment....
 
[quote="Tommy O 54" post=329150]Would love to win our way in not lose 4 in a row and sweat out selection Sunday, one thing about being an SJU lifer there are NO LOCKS! Just a lot of disappointment....[/quote]

Only thing I can suggest is stop caring so much. It isn't worth it.
Watch them, if they win then great, if they lose then oh well, there's always next year.

Maybe when we get a coach that knows how to coach, I'll put my heart into it again.
It would take 3 or 4 years after the new coach is hired though, why?
Gotta make sure he's "COMMITTED TO RECRUITING", not just recruit the first year then get all lazy like Lavin and Mullin.
I learned my lesson
 
[quote="gman" post=329128]It seems like we are according to the projected brackets. Lunardi dropped us from a 10 to 11. A loss probably puts us in the play-in game. The problem is you could have some upset in the conference tournies. Say Gtown or providence go on a run. Would they bump us?[/quote]

Let's hope, as improbable as it may seem today, that we're the team that 'goes on a run'.
Let's go Johnnies.
 
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