Guys on Matt’s Radar

[quote="JohnnyFan" post=279693]Not sure how we can go with three sit out transfers and also carry projects like Ellington and Diakite. We would be (essentially) already down to 8 players and one of them is a limited guard (Trimble).

Think we are all tired of playing shorthanded.[/quote]

If Ponds leave to the NBA, then I'm done, F giving Mullin next year.
3 of the starting 5 would be gone, and who is coming in?????
Simon and Clark would have to carry the team with minimum help.

I really thought Mullin would have done a better job here, Carnesecca said: "The days of guys coming here just to think that it's a vacation is over. With Mullin it's back tp business." or similiar to that.
Well I don't see Chris out there recruiting.
 
[quote="Class of 72" post=279597][quote="Chicago Days" post=279586][quote="otis" post=279584][quote="Chicago Days" post=279577]
Chicago Days wrote:
" ........... He (Mullin) did a great job with Shamorie—but no other top 4* HS player since.........[/quote]

incoming frosh Greg Williams, Jr. is a 4* per both Rivals and ESPN[/quote]

Very happy GW is a Johnnie. I think he’ll have a great career at St. John’s. You’re right, he’s a 4*. Not going to quibble. Again, ecstatic he’s on board—seems like a warrior.[/quote]

Marcus LoVett was a 4 star but was originally a Lavin recruit. Kassoum Yakwe was a 4 star but was originally a Lavin recruit. Federico Mussini was considered a 4 star equivalent but was originally a Lavin recruit. Shamorie Ponds was a 4 star but was originally contacted by Tony Chiles. Justin Simon was a 4 star but was originally recruited by Arizona.
See a trend?
Greg Williams is the first 4 star originally contacted by Matt to sign with St. John's.
Every other player has been a 3 star and half have left the program who were not recruited by the Power 5 schools or were transfers who were not happy campers.
The bottom line is that it is not easy to recruit players to come to St. John's because the only attempt at improving the program and facilities has been Tafner. Everything else has been a cluster fck of bad decisions and poor management of a basketball program that could have been a gold mine. A corrupt president, an A.D. that was a scoundrel followed by an interim A.D. who, along with a rookie president, ended up spending more $$ on a coaching staff with absolutely zero experience who to date seem only capable of finishing in last place with 3 star talent who end up transferring because the think they are 5 star players.
You can't make this stuff up other than at St. John's.[/quote]

Great post. The administration certainly hasn't helped things over the past two decades.
 
[quote="Chicago Days" post=279677]Another way to look at the likelihood of up to 3 sit-out transfers, is that judging by the 'list' and other names mentioned that Matt is 'aware of', it could be a very good haul.
I know, i know, very frustrating!
I wish it were not the case as well--but it is. And that's what losing basketball for much of this century dictates.
Recruiting will be easier, once we start to win again.
But if these 3 sit-out transfers prove to be Davion Mitchell (high 4* out of HS), David Caraher (3* and Freshman of the Year in the SLC), and Dave Nickelberry (3* and a very athletic 6'7" wing)--well that will be very solid for the 2019-20 team, to go along hopefully with 1-2 very solid HS kids.
All three would have, potentially and ideally 3 years left of eligibility.
Not bad--if that indeed is the 'haul'.[/quote]
Do sense Caraher & Mitchell are prime targets. Lastly, my original post indicated “two sit out transfers & POSSIBLY three. The third may not materialize.
 
[quote="Paultzman" post=279707][quote="Chicago Days" post=279677]Another way to look at the likelihood of up to 3 sit-out transfers, is that judging by the 'list' and other names mentioned that Matt is 'aware of', it could be a very good haul.
I know, i know, very frustrating!
I wish it were not the case as well--but it is. And that's what losing basketball for much of this century dictates.
Recruiting will be easier, once we start to win again.
But if these 3 sit-out transfers prove to be Davion Mitchell (high 4* out of HS), David Caraher (3* and Freshman of the Year in the SLC), and Dave Nickelberry (3* and a very athletic 6'7" wing)--well that will be very solid for the 2019-20 team, to go along hopefully with 1-2 very solid HS kids.
All three would have, potentially and ideally 3 years left of eligibility.
Not bad--if that indeed is the 'haul'.[/quote]
Do sense Caraher & Mitchell are prime targets. Lastly, my original post indicated “two sit out transfers & POSSIBLY three. The third may not materialize.[/quote] I like Mitchel. It would be nice to have a pg who can immidiately contribute in 19.Have no problem w sit outs, providing they are talented. I’ll take a Simon and Clark every year. Unless your getting a stud, can’t count on freshman to really contribute.
 
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[quote="Boo Harvey" post=279631][quote="Paultzman" post=279628]One grad big and two & possibly three sit out players is latest staff plan for this year. Of course this is fluid. For those still holding out hope on Owens return, don’t is my educated read.

Multiple sit out transfers to me is disappointing & possibly reflective of a challenging 19 recruiting prognosis net of Kofi perhaps.[/quote]

Wow, potentially theee sitout transfers???? That’s outrageous. Even the most casual basketball fan could observe that something has gone terribly wrong here. Shame on the administration for not putting more pressure on Mullin to shakeup staff. They should do their job. If those of us on a fan board can assess the problem, how is it that the administration is so clueless?[/quote]

To me, it's not really shocking. It's obvious that top talent is not banging down the door to come here. When was the last time we won a tournament game? When was the last time we had a winning season? What is there here to attract the 2019 kids to come here? If the staff thinks this is the best bet, maybe it's their best option. I can only how many complaints we'd be getting from people on this board if we just recruited 3* kids instead.....
 
[quote="Paultzman" post=279707][quote="Chicago Days" post=279677]Another way to look at the likelihood of up to 3 sit-out transfers, is that judging by the 'list' and other names mentioned that Matt is 'aware of', it could be a very good haul.
I know, i know, very frustrating!
I wish it were not the case as well--but it is. And that's what losing basketball for much of this century dictates.
Recruiting will be easier, once we start to win again.
But if these 3 sit-out transfers prove to be Davion Mitchell (high 4* out of HS), David Caraher (3* and Freshman of the Year in the SLC), and Dave Nickelberry (3* and a very athletic 6'7" wing)--well that will be very solid for the 2019-20 team, to go along hopefully with 1-2 very solid HS kids.
All three would have, potentially and ideally 3 years left of eligibility.
Not bad--if that indeed is the 'haul'.[/quote]
Do sense Caraher & Mitchell are prime targets. Lastly, my original post indicated “two sit out transfers & POSSIBLY three. The third may not materialize.[/quote] One grad transfer big is enough imo. Keita was brought in to play and that's what is going to happen. Those two with Clark sliding up to the 4 more often and Roberts and Earlington gives us enough players for the 4 and 5 positions. I don't mind the 3 sit out transfers at this point. We whiffed on our top hs guys so this is the next step. This is what Matt does; he is good at getting sit out transfers. Can you blame him? It worked great at Iowa State with Hoiberg. Carraher, Mitchell and Nickelberry would be a good haul. I've been rightfully questioning the staff lately but they are starting to make moves which is good. Losing Owens is unfortunate because he is a key player for us and it hurts us for next year. At this point I'm starting to feel like we are one year behind the original timeframe for us to be consistently competitive. Year 4 is looking like the NIT year and Year 5 should get us an NCAA bid. Not ideal but it's the truth. Our kenpom rating has gotten better each year so there's that; at least progress is being made just not as fast as we would like. My biggest question is if we have a backup plan in case Ponds stays in the draft. If that happens I don't think we make the NIT next year unless Dixon exceeds expectations, which is possible but unlikely. We would also need another guard if he left, HS or Grad transfer probably the latter because there are so many of them that could fill a role immediately. If we did go the HS route I wouldn't mind Tavon Jones from Linden HS in Jersey he is still available and had a great senior year. Sorry for the long post.
 
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[quote="Dan V" post=279716][quote="Paultzman" post=279707][quote="Chicago Days" post=279677]Another way to look at the likelihood of up to 3 sit-out transfers, is that judging by the 'list' and other names mentioned that Matt is 'aware of', it could be a very good haul.
I know, i know, very frustrating!
I wish it were not the case as well--but it is. And that's what losing basketball for much of this century dictates.
Recruiting will be easier, once we start to win again.
But if these 3 sit-out transfers prove to be Davion Mitchell (high 4* out of HS), David Caraher (3* and Freshman of the Year in the SLC), and Dave Nickelberry (3* and a very athletic 6'7" wing)--well that will be very solid for the 2019-20 team, to go along hopefully with 1-2 very solid HS kids.
All three would have, potentially and ideally 3 years left of eligibility.
Not bad--if that indeed is the 'haul'.[/quote]
Do sense Caraher & Mitchell are prime targets. Lastly, my original post indicated “two sit out transfers & POSSIBLY three. The third may not materialize.
[/quote] Year 4 is looking like the NIT year and Year 5 should get us an NCAA bid. Not ideal but it's the truth. [/quote]

I wouldn't call it the truth. More like an opinion. Nevertheless, I'm not sure I'd consider Year 5 to be an NCAA bid season when we could very well be without Ponds and Simon (and, possibly another player).

Year 4 should be an NCAA Tournament season, IMO. If not, then we may as well sever ties.
 
Two sit out transfers. Maybe a third.

Add them to Ponds if he's back and Clarke and you will be losing 4 important players next year.

Consistency!
 
[quote="MJDinkins" post=279719][quote="Dan V" post=279716][quote="Paultzman" post=279707][quote="Chicago Days" post=279677]Another way to look at the likelihood of up to 3 sit-out transfers, is that judging by the 'list' and other names mentioned that Matt is 'aware of', it could be a very good haul.
I know, i know, very frustrating!
I wish it were not the case as well--but it is. And that's what losing basketball for much of this century dictates.
Recruiting will be easier, once we start to win again.
But if these 3 sit-out transfers prove to be Davion Mitchell (high 4* out of HS), David Caraher (3* and Freshman of the Year in the SLC), and Dave Nickelberry (3* and a very athletic 6'7" wing)--well that will be very solid for the 2019-20 team, to go along hopefully with 1-2 very solid HS kids.
All three would have, potentially and ideally 3 years left of eligibility.
Not bad--if that indeed is the 'haul'.[/quote]
Do sense Caraher & Mitchell are prime targets. Lastly, my original post indicated “two sit out transfers & POSSIBLY three. The third may not materialize.
[/quote] Year 4 is looking like the NIT year and Year 5 should get us an NCAA bid. Not ideal but it's the truth. [/quote]

I wouldn't call it the truth. More like an opinion. Nevertheless, I'm not sure I'd consider Year 5 to be an NCAA bid season when we could very well be without Ponds and Simon (and, possibly another player).

Year 4 should be an NCAA Tournament season, IMO. If not, then we may as well sever ties.[/quote]

If Mullin can't get the team to the NCAA Tournament next year he will officially get to wear the dunce crown until he surrenders it to the next home run hire.
 
I saw something like 130 new posts and thought maybe we were getting real close on some bigs. Not. Just the same old BS repeated over and over, post after post. This staff's inability to recruit the right players is so frustrating.
 
[quote="MJDinkins" post=279719][quote="Dan V" post=279716][quote="Paultzman" post=279707][quote="Chicago Days" post=279677]Another way to look at the likelihood of up to 3 sit-out transfers, is that judging by the 'list' and other names mentioned that Matt is 'aware of', it could be a very good haul.
I know, i know, very frustrating!
I wish it were not the case as well--but it is. And that's what losing basketball for much of this century dictates.
Recruiting will be easier, once we start to win again.
But if these 3 sit-out transfers prove to be Davion Mitchell (high 4* out of HS), David Caraher (3* and Freshman of the Year in the SLC), and Dave Nickelberry (3* and a very athletic 6'7" wing)--well that will be very solid for the 2019-20 team, to go along hopefully with 1-2 very solid HS kids.
All three would have, potentially and ideally 3 years left of eligibility.
Not bad--if that indeed is the 'haul'.[/quote]
Do sense Caraher & Mitchell are prime targets. Lastly, my original post indicated “two sit out transfers & POSSIBLY three. The third may not materialize.
[/quote] Year 4 is looking like the NIT year and Year 5 should get us an NCAA bid. Not ideal but it's the truth. [/quote]

I wouldn't call it the truth. More like an opinion. Nevertheless, I'm not sure I'd consider Year 5 to be an NCAA bid season when we could very well be without Ponds and Simon (and, possibly another player).

Year 4 should be an NCAA Tournament season, IMO. If not, then we may as well sever ties.[/quote] Yes an opinion your right. I think we will be close next year if Ponds is back. I'm thinking we will end up a bubble team with a 50/50 chance (higher if we get Owens back), and if it's the NIT I'm ok with that. 20 wins, NIT and a solid 19 class and some talented transfers on the way, I think gets Mullin a 5th year. I'm not really scared to lose Ponds after next year we should have the program in good enough shape if he leaves. That's assuming he is even around, my gut tells me he is going to stay in the draft this year. I don't think his draft stock will be higher than it is now. He already made 1st team Big East and 2018 is a weak class for point guards. This might be his best chance to get drafted probably in the second round. I don't think he will ever be a 1st rounder. We just have to be able to reload and not rebuild. I read an article about Iona and Cluess and there was a quote that stood out to me. Even though they are a mid major in a smaller league I still feel like St. John's is in a similar situation in the Big East.
"At our level, we’re not going to get those guys we’re playing against this week,” he said, referring to Duke’s roster of top-tier recruits. “So if we’re just going to go for only high school kids, we’re going to probably play for that one year every four years and hope that no one gets hurt, nobody transfers and everything breaks right. Otherwise, you find yourself in a cycle of six, seven, eight years not being good. That doesn’t work for me or the school.”

Cluess added: “I kind of laugh because the last few years teams were really senior-laden in our league and built for that one special year. They didn’t win."

It was a comment about the transfers they always seem to bring in. This blueprint can work for us too, we just need to string a few classes together that actually stick around for a few years. 1 or 2 solid HS kids a class that stay 3 or 4 years (ex. Machado, Armand, English, Casimir, McGill, Crawford) and fill the rest with transfers. To me this is our current staff's best bet to turn this around before its too late.
 
[quote="Dan V" post=279751][quote="MJDinkins" post=279719][quote="Dan V" post=279716][quote="Paultzman" post=279707][quote="Chicago Days" post=279677]Another way to look at the likelihood of up to 3 sit-out transfers, is that judging by the 'list' and other names mentioned that Matt is 'aware of', it could be a very good haul.
I know, i know, very frustrating!
I wish it were not the case as well--but it is. And that's what losing basketball for much of this century dictates.
Recruiting will be easier, once we start to win again.
But if these 3 sit-out transfers prove to be Davion Mitchell (high 4* out of HS), David Caraher (3* and Freshman of the Year in the SLC), and Dave Nickelberry (3* and a very athletic 6'7" wing)--well that will be very solid for the 2019-20 team, to go along hopefully with 1-2 very solid HS kids.
All three would have, potentially and ideally 3 years left of eligibility.
Not bad--if that indeed is the 'haul'.[/quote]
Do sense Caraher & Mitchell are prime targets. Lastly, my original post indicated “two sit out transfers & POSSIBLY three. The third may not materialize.
[/quote] Year 4 is looking like the NIT year and Year 5 should get us an NCAA bid. Not ideal but it's the truth. [/quote]

I wouldn't call it the truth. More like an opinion. Nevertheless, I'm not sure I'd consider Year 5 to be an NCAA bid season when we could very well be without Ponds and Simon (and, possibly another player).

Year 4 should be an NCAA Tournament season, IMO. If not, then we may as well sever ties.[/quote] Yes an opinion your right. I think we will be close next year if Ponds is back. I'm thinking we will end up a bubble team with a 50/50 chance (higher if we get Owens back), and if it's the NIT I'm ok with that. 20 wins, NIT and a solid 19 class and some talented transfers on the way, I think gets Mullin a 5th year. I'm not really scared to lose Ponds after next year we should have the program in good enough shape if he leaves. That's assuming he is even around, my gut tells me he is going to stay in the draft this year. I don't think his draft stock will be higher than it is now. He already made 1st team Big East and 2018 is a weak class for point guards. This might be his best chance to get drafted probably in the second round. I don't think he will ever be a 1st rounder. We just have to be able to reload and not rebuild. [/quote]

If you believe Ponds won't return next season and we'll still end up being an NIT team, then you're truly an optimistic person. Your optimism is lauded, but I think we'd hover around 9th or 10th place without Ponds next season.

I would have no expectations, and would be totally shocked to see a team--minus Ponds--participate in the NIT next season.
 
[quote="MJDinkins" post=279754][quote="Dan V" post=279751][quote="MJDinkins" post=279719][quote="Dan V" post=279716][quote="Paultzman" post=279707][quote="Chicago Days" post=279677]Another way to look at the likelihood of up to 3 sit-out transfers, is that judging by the 'list' and other names mentioned that Matt is 'aware of', it could be a very good haul.
I know, i know, very frustrating!
I wish it were not the case as well--but it is. And that's what losing basketball for much of this century dictates.
Recruiting will be easier, once we start to win again.
But if these 3 sit-out transfers prove to be Davion Mitchell (high 4* out of HS), David Caraher (3* and Freshman of the Year in the SLC), and Dave Nickelberry (3* and a very athletic 6'7" wing)--well that will be very solid for the 2019-20 team, to go along hopefully with 1-2 very solid HS kids.
All three would have, potentially and ideally 3 years left of eligibility.
Not bad--if that indeed is the 'haul'.[/quote]
Do sense Caraher & Mitchell are prime targets. Lastly, my original post indicated “two sit out transfers & POSSIBLY three. The third may not materialize.
[/quote] Year 4 is looking like the NIT year and Year 5 should get us an NCAA bid. Not ideal but it's the truth. [/quote]

I wouldn't call it the truth. More like an opinion. Nevertheless, I'm not sure I'd consider Year 5 to be an NCAA bid season when we could very well be without Ponds and Simon (and, possibly another player).

Year 4 should be an NCAA Tournament season, IMO. If not, then we may as well sever ties.[/quote] Yes an opinion your right. I think we will be close next year if Ponds is back. I'm thinking we will end up a bubble team with a 50/50 chance (higher if we get Owens back), and if it's the NIT I'm ok with that. 20 wins, NIT and a solid 19 class and some talented transfers on the way, I think gets Mullin a 5th year. I'm not really scared to lose Ponds after next year we should have the program in good enough shape if he leaves. That's assuming he is even around, my gut tells me he is going to stay in the draft this year. I don't think his draft stock will be higher than it is now. He already made 1st team Big East and 2018 is a weak class for point guards. This might be his best chance to get drafted probably in the second round. I don't think he will ever be a 1st rounder. We just have to be able to reload and not rebuild. [/quote]

If you believe Ponds won't return next season and we'll still end up being an NIT team, then you're truly an optimistic person. Your optimism is lauded, but I think we'd hover around 9th or 10th place without Ponds next season.

I would have no expectations, and would be totally shocked to see a team--minus Ponds--participate in the NIT next season.[/quote]

With Simon, Clark and who??????
Yeah your right, if no Ponds we'll get 15 wins, and Mullin would have done nothing in 4 years.
No NIT or NCAA.
 
[quote="MJDinkins" post=279754][quote="Dan V" post=279751][quote="MJDinkins" post=279719][quote="Dan V" post=279716][quote="Paultzman" post=279707][quote="Chicago Days" post=279677]Another way to look at the likelihood of up to 3 sit-out transfers, is that judging by the 'list' and other names mentioned that Matt is 'aware of', it could be a very good haul.
I know, i know, very frustrating!
I wish it were not the case as well--but it is. And that's what losing basketball for much of this century dictates.
Recruiting will be easier, once we start to win again.
But if these 3 sit-out transfers prove to be Davion Mitchell (high 4* out of HS), David Caraher (3* and Freshman of the Year in the SLC), and Dave Nickelberry (3* and a very athletic 6'7" wing)--well that will be very solid for the 2019-20 team, to go along hopefully with 1-2 very solid HS kids.
All three would have, potentially and ideally 3 years left of eligibility.
Not bad--if that indeed is the 'haul'.[/quote]
Do sense Caraher & Mitchell are prime targets. Lastly, my original post indicated “two sit out transfers & POSSIBLY three. The third may not materialize.
[/quote] Year 4 is looking like the NIT year and Year 5 should get us an NCAA bid. Not ideal but it's the truth. [/quote]

I wouldn't call it the truth. More like an opinion. Nevertheless, I'm not sure I'd consider Year 5 to be an NCAA bid season when we could very well be without Ponds and Simon (and, possibly another player).

Year 4 should be an NCAA Tournament season, IMO. If not, then we may as well sever ties.[/quote] Yes an opinion your right. I think we will be close next year if Ponds is back. I'm thinking we will end up a bubble team with a 50/50 chance (higher if we get Owens back), and if it's the NIT I'm ok with that. 20 wins, NIT and a solid 19 class and some talented transfers on the way, I think gets Mullin a 5th year. I'm not really scared to lose Ponds after next year we should have the program in good enough shape if he leaves. That's assuming he is even around, my gut tells me he is going to stay in the draft this year. I don't think his draft stock will be higher than it is now. He already made 1st team Big East and 2018 is a weak class for point guards. This might be his best chance to get drafted probably in the second round. I don't think he will ever be a 1st rounder. We just have to be able to reload and not rebuild. [/quote]

If you believe Ponds won't return next season and we'll still end up being an NIT team, then you're truly an optimistic person. Your optimism is lauded, but I think we'd hover around 9th or 10th place without Ponds next season.

I would have no expectations, and would be totally shocked to see a team--minus Ponds--participate in the NIT next season.[/quote]I agree with you. In my last comment I said If ponds leaves I don't think we will make the NIT unless Dixon exceeds expectations which is possible but unlikely.
 
Sorry Paultz, i try to 'tea leaf' read your vibes too much. But if there is a 3rd transfer, i was sensing it'd come from Trimble transferring.
And Dan V--man do i hope you're wrong about Ponds leaving for the NBA!
In that case, instead of a 3rd transfer--we'd be desperate for an immediate top 4* recruit and still be worse off, losing Shamorie last minute.
As an aside, I detest this looming NCAA 'new transfer rule' that would further bifurcate college hoops into the 'haves and have nots'. Guess who is among the have nots!
Ironically, if it does come down this summer it might benefit us initially 'before' it bites us (and many other schools) in the butt.
 
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[quote="Chicago Days" post=279762]Sorry Paultz, i try to 'tea leaf' read your vibes too much. But if there is a 3rd transfer, i was sensing it'd come from Trimble transferring.
And Dan V--man do i hope you're wrong about Ponds leaving for the NBA!
In that case, instead of a 3rd transfer--we'd be desperate for an immediate top 4* recruit and still be worse off, losing Shamorie last minute.
As an aside, I detest this looming NCAA 'new transfer rule' that would further bifurcate college hoops into the 'haves and have nots'. Guess who is among the have nots!
Ironically, if it does come down this summer it might benefit us initially 'before' it bites us (and many other schools) in the butt.[/quote] So do I brother.
 
[quote="Delaware" post=279735]I saw something like 130 new posts and thought maybe we were getting real close on some bigs. Not. Just the same old BS repeated over and over, post after post. This staff's inability to recruit the right players is so frustrating.[/quote]

There are a lot of players on the radar. Matt is very sure of himself.

URL]
[/quote]
 
[quote="oldschool Redmen" post=279679]
Never thought I'd say this but, wish we kept slice [/quote]

For me the loss of Rohrssen was bigger than many posters thought.
 
So we have an in-home with three of the top 2019 recruits, but we are not recruiting? We bring in 7 new players in 2 years, and we are not recruiting? You may not like transfers or the Trimble/McRoberts/ Williams type but realistically, what exactly do we have to sell about SJU? The Garden, the beautiful campus and facilities, our legacy from the 80’s, the lack of stability since the 80’s? The transfers under Mullin certainly don’t help but at least they are within the natural flow of the way college basketball is operating nowadays, not out of the norm, if you will. I am not an alumni and I get this may be harsh and rude to those who went to SJU and are rightfully proud of that but SJU is basically still a commuter school with limited facilities and a campus that cannot compare to many we recruit against. We ARE NOT a realistic destination right now, maybe never, for the type of players many on here pipe dream about. You guys want to play the Rohrressen type card, fine but then don’t bitch when the NCAA comes knocking because they will. The publicity they get out of a NY media driven, non Power 5 conference sanction is a gold mine to them or didn’t the Keita “incident” register with anyone? Look at Nova with Wright, look at Uconn with Calhoun, heck, look at Loyola this year. Those admins understood it takes time and stuck through the rough years. That is the only way you know if you have something. If SJU bails on Mullin prematurely with the train wreck he inherited what credible coach do you think will come here? It will just be another gamble hire, another “poke and hope” to borrow a pool disparagement. And yes, I agree that’s what Mullin was and that’s what Lavin and Roberts were. I realize there are two sides to any argument, especially one as subjective and emotional (to SJU fans at least) as this but to me this has to play out at least another 2/3 years before we know the result. Others obviously disagree.
 
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