billthetruth
Well-known member
We haven't won at Seton Hall in 18 years and until this year we have been bitch slapped by Providence on an annual basis.bamafan post=429230 said:
Confidence
- Thread starter lawmanfan
- Start date
MainMan post=429297 said:
MainMan post=429297 said:
Seems on target to me - the off-season is going to be a zoo, lots of kids are going to transfer, SJU will be fine when the dust settles.
People are acting like we are the only program where this is going on. We aren't. The bottom line is that every kid who is a supporting player on a good team thinks he can be a star somewhere else. So they're all out there looking for someplace where they can shine. Meanwhile the better mid-major players want an opportunity to prove they can play at a higher level.
That's why there are 1,000+ kids in the portal. By my math if there are about 337 D1 teams and each team has 12 scholarships that's out of a total of about 4,000 players or about a 25% transfer rate. It seems clear that by the end it will be closer to a 35% transfer rate. And it will disproportionately impact the top 7 or 8 conferences.
Just chill out and wait for the dust to settle people. We're going to be just fine.
Maybe you missed the "disproportionately impact the top 7 or 8 conferences" part?MainMan post=429308 said:
There are 4,000 players in D1. Maybe 1,000 of them play in the top 7 or 8 conferences. The other 3,000 play in the bottom 25 conferences.
The transfer rate is going to much higher in the top 25% than it is in the bottom 75%. That's how you get an average.
Per NCAA, 90% of transfers are higher to lower, only 10% are lower to higher.
[URL]https://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/research/tracking-transfer-division-i-men-s-basketball[/URL]
[URL]https://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/research/tracking-transfer-division-i-men-s-basketball[/URL]
The freshman were already signed when we got hit with all these transfers. They are not additions to the roster. Pre-transfer they were part of the analysis when we looked at how SJU could do in 2021. Since the season ended SJU had lost a lot of productive players and added one. We will find out now if the staff can handle the situation at hand but the freshman have nothing to do with it. They were already part of the equation.
There's also this:
[URL]https://www.ncaa.com/news/bask...sts-transfers-division-i-mens-basketball-have[/URL]
[URL]https://www.ncaa.com/news/bask...sts-transfers-division-i-mens-basketball-have[/URL]
Lawman, the only math you are concerned about are addition and multiplication when sending out your statement with billable hours./media/kunena/emoticons/smile.png
Of course there is no use worrying about things you cannot control. But this program has had storm clouds (pun intended) hovering over it for years, and it seems to rain on our parade at the first sign of good news.
Too many disappointing examples to rehash right now.
Of course there is no use worrying about things you cannot control. But this program has had storm clouds (pun intended) hovering over it for years, and it seems to rain on our parade at the first sign of good news.
Too many disappointing examples to rehash right now.
OK let's look at it this way:
Caraher, McGriff and Toro combined for 311 minutes on the season. That's under 4 minutes per game per player. So we can safely ignore them as part of your departure list. Whoever is on the end of next year's bench will replace those minutes.
Dunn was a valuable contributor, but he was expected to be gone anyway. Graduation happens. Let's assume Stef Smith replaces most of his production.
Roberts was useful in the 9 minutes per game he averaged, but there aren't many people who thought he should get more burn than that. I'd bet that O'Mar Stanley is quite capable of replacing those 9 minutes per game.
That leaves you with Cole, Moore Earlington and Williams. Let's divide it down this way:
With Moore and Earlington departing, you lose 15 points and 8 rebounds a game up front.
Let's pencil Traore in for 5 points and 3 rebounds per game. That means you need to replace 10 and 5 up front. Maybe you get that out of Nyiwe, but you almost certainly get it out of Nyiwe plus whatever big the staff brings in. If they bring in two bigs, you probably get MORE production than you are losing (especially if one of them can actually defend the post).
With Williams and Cole departing, you lose 17 points and 3 assists per game in the backcourt.
Let's give a starting spot to Wusu. He averaged 6.5 and 2.3 last year. Let's give him 8 and 3. That would mean we have to replace 9 points per game. Clearly we need to add a guard or wing to do that.
I'm not even counting Pinzon - let's just slot him in for Wusu's numbers off the bench (which is probably too conservative an estimate.
The bottom line IMHO is that the departures are way overblown. Four of them are peripheral, one of them was inevitable, and that leaves you with basically 4 meaningful transfers of which half were JUCOs who were here for all of a year and for one reason or another didn't work out. Basically you're losing TWO significant players (not out of line with any other school). And it is pretty clear that if the staff can bring in two capable bigs and a guard (not an impossible task with 1,000+ kids in the portal) then all of the lost production is completely replaceable and probably upgradeable.
Now, if Julian doesn't return, that's a completely different conversation. Then we are starting from Ground Zero.
Caraher, McGriff and Toro combined for 311 minutes on the season. That's under 4 minutes per game per player. So we can safely ignore them as part of your departure list. Whoever is on the end of next year's bench will replace those minutes.
Dunn was a valuable contributor, but he was expected to be gone anyway. Graduation happens. Let's assume Stef Smith replaces most of his production.
Roberts was useful in the 9 minutes per game he averaged, but there aren't many people who thought he should get more burn than that. I'd bet that O'Mar Stanley is quite capable of replacing those 9 minutes per game.
That leaves you with Cole, Moore Earlington and Williams. Let's divide it down this way:
With Moore and Earlington departing, you lose 15 points and 8 rebounds a game up front.
Let's pencil Traore in for 5 points and 3 rebounds per game. That means you need to replace 10 and 5 up front. Maybe you get that out of Nyiwe, but you almost certainly get it out of Nyiwe plus whatever big the staff brings in. If they bring in two bigs, you probably get MORE production than you are losing (especially if one of them can actually defend the post).
With Williams and Cole departing, you lose 17 points and 3 assists per game in the backcourt.
Let's give a starting spot to Wusu. He averaged 6.5 and 2.3 last year. Let's give him 8 and 3. That would mean we have to replace 9 points per game. Clearly we need to add a guard or wing to do that.
I'm not even counting Pinzon - let's just slot him in for Wusu's numbers off the bench (which is probably too conservative an estimate.
The bottom line IMHO is that the departures are way overblown. Four of them are peripheral, one of them was inevitable, and that leaves you with basically 4 meaningful transfers of which half were JUCOs who were here for all of a year and for one reason or another didn't work out. Basically you're losing TWO significant players (not out of line with any other school). And it is pretty clear that if the staff can bring in two capable bigs and a guard (not an impossible task with 1,000+ kids in the portal) then all of the lost production is completely replaceable and probably upgradeable.
Now, if Julian doesn't return, that's a completely different conversation. Then we are starting from Ground Zero.
beast of the east
Active member
Staff is very hard at work and was prepared for this. The expectation and confidence is that our 2021-2022 roster will be stronger than this past season.