If I look at the Kenpom and Sagarin Top 50 - probably not a better job than a majority of those schools. 50-75 - probably a fit. Especially when you consider the money the school is willing to pay it's HC, the market, the exposure, etc.
That is just based upon what the job looks like now after 15+ years of a lot of losing. Reality is SJU has likely made this far harder than it needs to be and the profile of the program, the job, etc. has suffered as a result.
Irrespective of what you think about them as coaches and their performance here, the last two hires who have now been at the helm between them for nearly a decade were (1) out of coaching for 7 years, and (2) had never coached a day in their life. It doesn't get a whole lot more swing for the fences than that, and SJU doesn't have to be a swing for the fences job.
Providence in 13 years under Tim Welsh and Keno Davis - 2 NCAA Tournaments. First 7 years with Cooley - 5.
Seton Hall in 16 years under Blaney, Amaker, Orr, and Gonzalez - 3 NCAA Tournaments. 4 in a row now under Willard.
The platform for those programs didn't change. In Providence's case they just hired a grand slam, and in Seton Hall's case they stuck by the right guy patiently. These are similarly situated in Providence's case and worse in Seton Hall's case jobs than SJU.
Even Georgetown, which I think many would consider far superior to any of these 3 programs, hit a lull at the end of Thompson / through Esherick and is in another rut right now.
So much of it is about the coach/hire. Does Xavier have to be such an elite job? Probably not, but they've made it into one with consistency of hires over many years. Does VCU have to be such a great job? Definitely not, but they've done similar to Xavier and have made the NCAA 10 times in the last 13 years.
SJU has not consistently hired well since Carnesecca retired. It's a good job that has been made to look like it isn't as good, more challenging than it likely is, etc.