...Can we make the Tournament?

Only 2 ways I see us making the tournament:
Run the table during the rest of the regular season, and making it to Saturday in the B.E. tourny, or
losing 1 or more in the regular season and having to win the B.E. tournament.
 
Lets hope the team plays hard the remainder of the season, and the season ends with a pleasant surprise ending.   

If no pleasant suprise ending occurs then lets win the NIT.
 
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SLYFOXX1968" post=421259 said:
Of course , there are some who hold out hope that the NCAA bid is possible . Winning the BE tourney would do that but , even the most ardent fan knows that's highly unlikely . We have 3 tough. BE games left . Winning all 3 ? Again , doubtful . We will have to play much better than we did against DePaul and Butler . When you want to enter the ranks of being a Contender , you have to squash those teams below you in the standings . We lost 3 games to G'Town , Butler and DePaul , that's why we aren't a Tournament team .  
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It's crazy how fans always go from one extreme to another after each and every single game, and I'm guilty of that myself I've done it many times, I did it last night.  However, less than a month ago, nobody thought this team would make the NCAA, in fact I seen a lot of people questioning if CMA would even keep his .500 or better streak going, things can change very quickly in college basketball, even with 1 or 2 games. 

Looking at the entire picture now, the DePaul loss was bad no sugar coating that, however it's a Q3 loss, not the absolute end of the world.  Plus, you look at that Butler loss now which was another bad loss, they are now only 4 spots away from being a Q2 loss rather than a Q3 loss.  With their remaining schedule it's very likely that ends up being a Q2 loss.  And if that happens St. John's will only have 2 Q3 losses on their resume.  Every team in the bubble is going to have 1 or 2 Q3 losses like that, that's why they are on the bubble.

Moving forward, it's almost certain they will add another non-conference game, most likely a Q2 game.  So, that puts them with at least 5 games remaining (that's including first game of BE tournament, which would be UConn as of right now).  And of those remaining games, they've already beaten 3 of them before, and one of the teams they didn't beat yet is a home game.  So, it's not a wild thought to think they can beat teams they've beaten before.  It's tough to give a number of how many games they need, because you don't know what other bubble teams will do, but I do know, if they win Tuesday this whole conversation is completely different that would instantly put them back on the bubble.

 
 
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Great post, Making Plays.  Oddly enough part of the reason our NET didn't drop too terribly on Saturday is because everybody else on the bubble lost too.  All we can do is play the games, win as many of them as we can, and the chips fall where the will.  It isn't as though anybody rationally thought this was an NCAA year at the start of the season - the team was picked 8th in the conference, they're playing with house money here.  It's been a good year (and potentially a great one) in the program-building department.
 
There can be no denying that 3 of our 8 losses were BAD. GTown , Butler, DePaul .  But , we have had several good wins ,UCONN,  Nova ,PC, X and Marquette . Which when tallied up puts us at 8-8 . I would say odds are we lose to Nova on the Road .Vegas will say the same . The last 2 vs PC and Seton Hall are , at best toss ups , even with home court in front of the fickle Cardboard fans . Seton Hall and PC are now in that category as Must Win, not so much for the NCAA but , BE seeding . We want that first round bye . A out of Conference game against a below 68 th Ranked team doesn't do much for us .   If we can finish Winning 2 of the last 3 , we would be 10-9 in BE and a win or 2 in BE Tourney might push us back into NCAA contention . The Comnittee also  looks at trending at Seasons end .  The idea of trying to balance a DePaul loss by its affect on their  Rankings is a stretch in my mind . It was a devastating loss !   I still can't fathom CMA using Dunn and Wusu for so much of the second half . And , not getting Cole and Marcellus into the game . Both , could have moved outside on Offense with Posh directing the offense . Both Cole and Earlington can shoot from the 3, certainly better tha Dunn and Wusu . So , say what you want but , CMA didn't react to the poor games played by those 2 . And , during the pummeling we took inside from DePaul , both Robert's and Toro could have bern in there to at least foul their big guys . Make them convert the free throws instead of the easy stuff they were getting . These are Coaching actions that could have been taken but , weren't .  It's only fair to bring these questions up as it relates to Anderson since we did it so frequently during the Lavin and Mullin years too. No Coach is exempt from Redmen .com.  And , shouldn't be either . 
 
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SLYFOXX1968" post=421370 said:
There can be no denying that 3 of our 8 losses were BAD. GTown , Butler, DePaul .  But , we have had several good wins ,UCONN,  Nova ,PC, X and Marquette . Which when tallied up puts us at 8-8 . I would say odds are we lose to Nova on the Road .Vegas will say the same . The last 2 vs PC and Seton Hall are , at best toss ups , even with home court in front of the fickle Cardboard fans . Seton Hall and PC are now in that category as Must Win, not so much for the NCAA but , BE seeding . We want that first round bye . A out of Conference game against a below 68 th Ranked team doesn't do much for us .   If we can finish Winning 2 of the last 3 , we would be 10-9 in BE and a win or 2 in BE Tourney might push us back into NCAA contention . The Comnittee also  looks at trending at Seasons end .  The idea of trying to balance a DePaul loss by its affect on their  Rankings is a stretch in my mind . It was a devastating loss !   I still can't fathom CMA using Dunn and Wusu for so much of the second half . And , not getting Cole and Marcellus into the game . Both , could have moved outside on Offense with Posh directing the offense . Both Cole and Earlington can shoot from the 3, certainly better tha Dunn and Wusu . So , say what you want but , CMA didn't react to the poor games played by those 2 . And , during the pummeling we took inside from DePaul , both Robert's and Toro could have bern in there to at least foul their big guys . Make them convert the free throws instead of the easy stuff they were getting . These are Coaching actions that could have been taken but , weren't .  It's only fair to bring these questions up as it relates to Anderson since we did it so frequently during the Lavin and Mullin years too. No Coach is exempt from Redmen .com.  And , shouldn't be either . 

 
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Nor should paragraphs :)
 
If we lose tomorrow (which I anticipate) then any bubble talk will only be regarding the NIT bubble. The NIT is very far from a sure thing at this point. As a fan who has no impact on the outcome of games, I'm just hoping for an NIT appearance. Expecting anything more would be setting myself up for disappointment, but the NIT would still be a solid outcome for this year regardless. 
 
Adam wrote:
If we lose tomorrow (which I anticipate) then any bubble talk will only be regarding the NIT bubble. The NIT is very far from a sure thing at this point. As a fan who has no impact on the outcome of games, I'm just hoping for an NIT appearance. Expecting anything more would be setting myself up for disappointment, but the NIT would still be a solid outcome for this year regardless. 

Adam I pretty much agree except to say I think if we lose tomorrow, beat PC & Hall and were to win two more to make BE tourney final (18-11) we'd at least be on some bubbles.
 
NCJohnnie" post=421404 said:
Adam wrote:
If we lose tomorrow (which I anticipate) then any bubble talk will only be regarding the NIT bubble. The NIT is very far from a sure thing at this point. As a fan who has no impact on the outcome of games, I'm just hoping for an NIT appearance. Expecting anything more would be setting myself up for disappointment, but the NIT would still be a solid outcome for this year regardless. 

Adam I pretty much agree except to say I think if we lose tomorrow, beat PC & Hall and were to win two more to make BE tourney final (18-11) we'd at least be on some bubbles.
 
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I agree that they're most likely heading towards the NIT with a loss tomorrow (and maybe even with a win given how they've followed up on big wins so who knows?) but let me lay out a hypothetical that's really a follow up on what Making Plays is saying:

Let's say they add an additional non-con next week against an ACC-type team somewhere in the 50-60's of the NET. Let's use Notre Dame for this hypothetical. St John's loses to Villanova and then wins 4 in a row against Notre Dame, Providence, Seton Hall and also beats UConn in the BET before losing to lets say Creighton. We don't think this would be a bubble team at 18-11 without taking another bad loss and adding those 4 wins? I do. The past weekend was a disaster for teams all over the bubble besides us.

Again I'm not trying to present false hope for anyone who doesn't want to become invested again. It may very well not happen (they may nose dive and lose out) but there are paths, perhaps still unknown, to the tournament. 
 
Yes I do agree that we would still make the Tournament if we lose tomorrow and then win 4 or 5 in a row, but I wouldn't even start thinking about that until we win a couple in a row. 

I think a lot of people are just assuming we'll make the NIT at a minimum, but that's definitely not the case. It's only 16 teams this year and right now we'd likely be in the back half of that. Lose some more games and we could be out. 
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Adam" post=421400 said:
If we lose tomorrow (which I anticipate) then any bubble talk will only be regarding the NIT bubble. The NIT is very far from a sure thing at this point. As a fan who has no impact on the outcome of games, I'm just hoping for an NIT appearance. Expecting anything more would be setting myself up for disappointment, but the NIT would still be a solid outcome for this year regardless. 
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Never count a Mike Anderson team out,  I learned that several years ago. I seen his team get blown out one year to a Vanderbilt team at home that had an RPI in the 200's and was considered the worst team in the conference by far, I was in the stands watching that game, at the time of that loss, like now it was in February and all hope was considered lost for the tournament looking at the remaining schedule. Then that same team went on to win 5 games in a row, 3 of those were on the road, and one of those road games was against a ranked South Carolina team that went on to make the final four that year. And that Mike Anderson team I'm talking about also went on to the finals of the SEC tournament.

And I'm not saying they are going to win against Villanova, but Mike's going to have his team ready to play tomorrow you can bank on that.  I've never seen any of his teams lay down and not have a great performance after a heartbreaking loss.
 
Immediately after Duke beat Virginia I was reading that they were back in the NCAA picture. If writers are going to say that, then we can definitely still make the tournament.
 
Stanford, the last team in according to Lunardi, lost to Washington St in triple overtime. A lot of bubble teams having a hard time of it. 
 
Adam" post=421412 said:
Yes I do agree that we would still make the Tournament if we lose tomorrow and then win 4 or 5 in a row, but I wouldn't even start thinking about that until we win a couple in a row. 

I think a lot of people are just assuming we'll make the NIT at a minimum, but that's definitely not the case. It's only 16 teams this year and right now we'd likely be in the back half of that. Lose some more games and we could be out. 
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Was thinking the same thing, especially with automatic bids going to conference regular season winners who lose their conference tournaments (one bid leagues). That plus some blue bloods being in the NIT won't help.
 
Just saw Linardi's bracket. In what world is Minnesota a tournament team?  That's shameful 
 
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SJUNC" post=421460 said:
Adam" post=421412 said:
Yes I do agree that we would still make the Tournament if we lose tomorrow and then win 4 or 5 in a row, but I wouldn't even start thinking about that until we win a couple in a row. 

I think a lot of people are just assuming we'll make the NIT at a minimum, but that's definitely not the case. It's only 16 teams this year and right now we'd likely be in the back half of that. Lose some more games and we could be out. 
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Was thinking the same thing, especially with automatic bids going to conference regular season winners who lose their conference tournaments (one bid leagues). That plus some blue bloods being in the NIT won't help.


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Fortunately I think this year there aren't autobids for the NIT, so it may be 16 available slots. Still, won't be easy and a reduced/focused field is even more of a reason to want to make it. 
 
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I'm sure Coach will try and motivate his Team tonight vs Nova . I'm sure he laid it out for them for the DePaul game too . We were only down 41-40 at the half  but , all those unforced errors and defensive lapses doomed us . We got within 5 with a spurt but , then had a slew of awful possessions . Against the Wildcats , it will take a effort of extraordinary play from everyone for the whole 40 minutes . Coach will have to adjust to flow as it happens and not let it get away . Let's go Johnnies . 
 
I have a good feeling about our guys tonight. They've been solid in bounce back games and I think they're a little embarrassed and eager to make it right. I bet they show up and keep it close.

I'm more concerned about Villanova. Jay Wright will have worked with them on the pressure. Posh's intensity won't take Gillespie by surprise. They'll probably shoot better and you know they've seen how bad our interior defense has been. If we can't turn them over a bunch again or shoot completely lights out, I'm not confident we'll be able to handle their inside-out game.

(sorry, meant to post this in the Villanova thread but I guess it applies...)
 
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Likely to be on the NIT bubble after tonight. Need to win another couple games to salvage this season. Going from top 25 votes to nothing in 1 month would be brutal. 
 
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