Not bubble expert, but imo, yes & yes
Bubble Watch
- Thread starter hnkcolumbia
- Start date
I have posted this analogy before, college admissions has 439 criteria so admissions officers can mix and match to let in who they want and reject who they want. The NCAA uses the same approach for the tournament.
My current thinking is something like:
Lose to SH: Most likely out (50%); Decent chance for Dayton (40%); small chance to be in top 64 (10%)
Beat SH and lose to uconn: Most likely in Dayton (50%); decent chance at top 64 (40%); small chance to be out (10%)
Might be more bullish than others in the case that we lose (just another Quad 2 loss), but that's in part because so much of our fate is not in SJU's hands. We still have 2 potential Quad 1 wins to gain based on Nova and Utah finishes. There may be more or fewer bid stealers. I think it's too simple to suggest everything is riding on this one game since there are so many moving parts and this is only a quad 2 game.
Lose to SH: Most likely out (50%); Decent chance for Dayton (40%); small chance to be in top 64 (10%)
Beat SH and lose to uconn: Most likely in Dayton (50%); decent chance at top 64 (40%); small chance to be out (10%)
Might be more bullish than others in the case that we lose (just another Quad 2 loss), but that's in part because so much of our fate is not in SJU's hands. We still have 2 potential Quad 1 wins to gain based on Nova and Utah finishes. There may be more or fewer bid stealers. I think it's too simple to suggest everything is riding on this one game since there are so many moving parts and this is only a quad 2 game.
I hope they take into account wins at halftime.
most likely = 50%?
Understand your logic but OOC is really preseason. Teams are not fully formed or ready to play up to their full potential.
It's incorrect to say we'd definitely be out with a loss to Seton Hall (which some are stating on X), the only thing up for debate is how likely/unlikely our odds would be on Selection Sunday. We still don't know how the rest of the bubble will fare, if Nova/Utah will move up to Q1, etc. Really a crystal ball and Selection Committee input is needed.
Here's one example of why that's the case: Fox Sports has us as a #10 seed today. They have us ahead of UVA, Drake, TCU, Wake Forest, Colorado, Indiana St, & Texas A&M. Does anyone think losing a Q2 game would drop our ranking with them 7+ spots? Even if you account for potential bid thieves or the rest of the bubble doing really well, it's tough to imagine us not being in their bracket on Selection Sunday
Fox is more bullish on the Johnnies than most, but there are also plenty of other brackets that have us as a 10 seed. Too many people just take Lunardi as gospel despite his mediocre record. Fox has been the 75th most accurate bracketologist by the way, ahead of #98 Lunardi. Even if Lunardi is correct there are still (unlikely) scenarios where we could make it if the rest of the bubble does poorly, USF/Richmond don't win, and our resume improves based on Nova, Utah, etc.
Obviously I really want to win on Thursday so this debate can end, but there's no way to say definitively yet whether we'd be in or out with a loss. I also don't think a win vs. Hall 100% locks us in, especially if we get blown out the following day, but it'd make things much more likely of course (I'd guess at least 95%).
Here's one example of why that's the case: Fox Sports has us as a #10 seed today. They have us ahead of UVA, Drake, TCU, Wake Forest, Colorado, Indiana St, & Texas A&M. Does anyone think losing a Q2 game would drop our ranking with them 7+ spots? Even if you account for potential bid thieves or the rest of the bubble doing really well, it's tough to imagine us not being in their bracket on Selection Sunday
Fox is more bullish on the Johnnies than most, but there are also plenty of other brackets that have us as a 10 seed. Too many people just take Lunardi as gospel despite his mediocre record. Fox has been the 75th most accurate bracketologist by the way, ahead of #98 Lunardi. Even if Lunardi is correct there are still (unlikely) scenarios where we could make it if the rest of the bubble does poorly, USF/Richmond don't win, and our resume improves based on Nova, Utah, etc.
Obviously I really want to win on Thursday so this debate can end, but there's no way to say definitively yet whether we'd be in or out with a loss. I also don't think a win vs. Hall 100% locks us in, especially if we get blown out the following day, but it'd make things much more likely of course (I'd guess at least 95%).
most likely of the three outcomes
The NCAA would weigh / rate the quality of the OOC. They could run a few large November and December tournaments with double elimination.
I get the pre-season view, but the OOC games from November already are assessed equally with the games played in Feb / March.
The goal is to reduce the arbitrary process at the end of the season that exists today. Some leagues will get screwed from bad Novembers, but schools will know who they have to beat out as they start their league seasons.
montyaloofah
Active member
Life on the last 4 in line is stressful
I kind of enjoy the randomness of the committee. Rarely has there been such an egregious decision that I think there needs to be a clear cut overhaul.
I've almost become more aligned with Marillac's idea of expanding the tournament not being a bad thing. If we had a play-in for all non-AQs who are seeded 7 through 12, that would be a really exciting two additional night of hoops + reward the true Top 25 teams in the country. Not much separates the rest as is. I think you'd have to figure out a way to make sure it's not just boring teams like Pittsburgh (lol) or Butler, but also some mid-majors like VCU, Loyola Chicago, etc., but it has more potential than I've thought in past years
I've almost become more aligned with Marillac's idea of expanding the tournament not being a bad thing. If we had a play-in for all non-AQs who are seeded 7 through 12, that would be a really exciting two additional night of hoops + reward the true Top 25 teams in the country. Not much separates the rest as is. I think you'd have to figure out a way to make sure it's not just boring teams like Pittsburgh (lol) or Butler, but also some mid-majors like VCU, Loyola Chicago, etc., but it has more potential than I've thought in past years
One seed then!
Anthony Mattia
Well-known member
No question NCJ, what the wife wants, she gets. Lol
Redenbacher
Well-known member
My thinking is probably too simplistic on this, but if we lose to Seton Hall AND both Nova and Providence fail to win their second games of the BE Tourney, then we are in. The Big East is not going to be a 4-bid conference, and in this scenario, we are solidly in the #5 position.
Ray Morgan
Well-known member
Seton Hall has been a difficult match-up for us. But hoping the old school thinking holds true that it's tough to beat a team 3 times in a row in one season. Didn't seem to bother Georgetown in 84-85 season. Another team that was more athletic and more physical than us.
While the NCAA wants to have Teams from non Major Conferences represented , it’s not fair to compare teams that play in the BE for example , to teams in the MVC .
Where would Indiana State finish in the BE ?