BRACKETOLOGY, RPI, SOS
- Thread starter Marillac
- Start date
we've got one "big man" that can shoot free throws: Sanchez. Obekpa is definitely improving though. His form is much more consistent. For Gift I think it is all mental. He has a decent form. Easy to tell what Sampson's problem is. He has never had any kind of disciplined approach to shooting free throws. Until he does that he will continue to be "streaky" which is ridiculous.
tom in salem
Well-known member
Great avatar.
Some "bubble rivals" status;
@CBTonNBC: Bubble Banter: Baylor is still in the bubble picture, believe it or nothttp://t.co/OqrsqgC1rD
@CBTonNBC: Bubble Banter: Baylor is still in the bubble picture, believe it or nothttp://t.co/OqrsqgC1rD
I am going to go out on a limb and say that we lose a minimum of two more games in the regular season. That would put us at 20-11, 10-8. If we lose 3, which is a definite possibility, then it would be 19-12, 9-9.
Right now we are in seventh place in the league. A 5-2 finish would probably get us to someplace between 4th and 6th (likely in a tie where our rank would depend on tiebreaker).
If that is our finish, then we will probably need to win two games in the BET to get into the NCAAs.
If we lose 3 games, then we need to win the league tournament, period.
I appreciate the optimism, but I think some folks are counting chickens that are just a gleam in the rooster's eye at the moment. We have a LOT of work left to do and are going to need to make a really strong run the rest of the way to be in the conversation for the NCAAs.
The good news is that if we win 20 and don't make the NCAAs then we are going to get to hear about what a great accomplishment it is to win 20 games and what wonderful progress we've made and how this is a springboard for the future, blah blah blah.
But i can't help but wonder what our record would look like if we were still playing Louisville, Cincy, UConn, and Pitt (we played Cuse anyway, so that's a wash). Butler, Xavier, Penn State, Dartmouth and even Creighton are a step down in competition, no two ways about it. Plus even some of the better league holdovers are having down years (Georgetown, Marquette).
The RPI says what it says, of course. I just think it will be interesting to see how the BE does in the NCAAs against the other traditional power conferences, plus the AAC, which is really likeable as a basketball conference right now (more so if Temple wasn't having such an awful year).
Right now we are in seventh place in the league. A 5-2 finish would probably get us to someplace between 4th and 6th (likely in a tie where our rank would depend on tiebreaker).
If that is our finish, then we will probably need to win two games in the BET to get into the NCAAs.
If we lose 3 games, then we need to win the league tournament, period.
I appreciate the optimism, but I think some folks are counting chickens that are just a gleam in the rooster's eye at the moment. We have a LOT of work left to do and are going to need to make a really strong run the rest of the way to be in the conversation for the NCAAs.
The good news is that if we win 20 and don't make the NCAAs then we are going to get to hear about what a great accomplishment it is to win 20 games and what wonderful progress we've made and how this is a springboard for the future, blah blah blah.
But i can't help but wonder what our record would look like if we were still playing Louisville, Cincy, UConn, and Pitt (we played Cuse anyway, so that's a wash). Butler, Xavier, Penn State, Dartmouth and even Creighton are a step down in competition, no two ways about it. Plus even some of the better league holdovers are having down years (Georgetown, Marquette).
The RPI says what it says, of course. I just think it will be interesting to see how the BE does in the NCAAs against the other traditional power conferences, plus the AAC, which is really likeable as a basketball conference right now (more so if Temple wasn't having such an awful year).
LSU has lost to two bad SEC teams these lat two weeks, which helps our chances
LOL
I don't recall anyone particularly "counting their chickens" yet. Some people are just happy the team is showing some life and playing well. I've read many posters (myself, included) that we still have a lot of work to do.
Sounds like you really don't like the optimism by the fans, and wanna steal the fans joy. Just be happy for the team and fans.
You could've saved yourself some time by just saying, you don't care for Lavin.
The team during the early part of the season would have trouble with Louisville, UConn, and Pitt (we played 'Cuse, as you mentioned). That's about it. It's a different year, but we were beating Cincy with poor teams. I'm confident the team we're seeing now could beat both UConn and Pitt. I also feel we could play with Louisville.
How are you gonna place teams like Penn State and Dartmouth into your conversation? One team, we played in a tournament (Penn State), while the other team was just part of our non-conference schedule (Dartmouth). By the way, Creighton knocked Cincy out of the NCAA tournament last season.
Contradict much? How come you didn't say the same, in reference to Big East teams who are having a down year in Butler and Xavier? You, instead put them out to pasture, because you know they're both not playing well. IMO, if they were both playing well, then it would make the Big East more "likeable."
So, if the Big East flame out in the NCAA Tournament, then you'll probably come here with a bunch of "I told you so's." But if the Big East ball out in the NCAA Tournament, then we're gonna hear an excuse or you won't even touch on it.
Carry on....
I agree with your analysis on what it's going to take to get in and what would put us out. Certainly, 4-3 over these last 7 means winning the BET. 5-2, 2 BET wins locks it up, and I think we have a shot winning only 1 BET game at 21-12 depending on how a whole host of variables shake out across the country. 6-1 (possible but not the most likely outcome), we might just have done enough to get in with no BET wins (although coming that far just to make things that uncertain would certainly be frustrating), although 1 would certainly lock it up.
That is why I see tonight (or whenever we play SH) as so critical. If we are able to put this game in the W column, that leaves 6 games with 4 at the Garden. 4-2 will seem far more attainable under those circumstances than 5-2 with those one looming.
Lawman, I don't know anyone who is "counting their chickens" just yet. At the risk of sounding self-serving, we're all too smart and have too much experience to do that.
What would you like Coach to say if we win 20 and don't make the NCAA's? That it was a horrendous year? We didn't meet our goals? We should not be satisfied with what we've done? These are not pro's, getting millions of dollars a year to play. If they were, then yes, you could take the BIll Parcells, Mike Ditka and even Vince Lombardi approach to coaching and say it was a horrible year. They're kids, for the most part, and I would expect Coach to praise them for their efforts and for their year, even if they don't make the NCAAs. I would hope he will be as proud of them as many of us would be here on this board.
But you and I know that if we did win 20 and did not make the NCAAs, the "Fire Lavin" thread will be resurrected with the usual suspects posting.
And as far as the ACC being a "likeable" conference. I'm not sure how you meant that, but the way I'm interpreting it is that they are the least likeable conference as far as I'm concerned. If Coach Ratface and Puke, especially, never win another game, that would be fine with me. And the same for all the other teams in that conference, especially the former BE teams.
I'm done.
MJD:
I've seen a whole bunch of posts that seem to assume we are going to cruise through the rest of the schedule, except for Nova. My point was that there are at least three other games on the schedule at are easily lose-able. I think we will probably win at least one and possibly two out of the four, and hopefully finish with 20 wins overall and 10 in the league. That's about as optimistic as I get.
As for the rest of your point, I've been a season ticket holder and booster for 27 years. If you don't think I want the program to succeed, well, you're entitled to your opinion. I've only been to 300+ games cheering for St John's, including just about every game Kevin Clark and Norm Roberts ever coached.
Regarding Lavin, it's no secret that I don't think much of his coaching ability. He has some definite strengths, but actual coaching isn't one of them. If it was then we wouldn't be in 7th place in a 10-team league needing to go on an epic tear to be on the NCAA bubble with a group just about everyone says has the most talent in the league.
I don't get your point about who beat whom last year or who you think we might beat if we played them at the right time or at home or whatever. The fact is that the teams that have been subtracted from our schedule are - for the most part - a heck of a lot better than the teams we added. On top of which we have home-and-homes with the added teams, so we get two games against, say Butler, as opposed to a game against Pitt and a game against Louisville. I'm sure you aren't arguing that we have a tougher schedule this year than last year, are you?
IMHO the improvement in our record from last year to this year is due as much to a softer schedule as it is to the team being better. However, it's tough to judge until we see how the BE teams do in the NCAAs. That will either justify or refute the RPI and SOS stats. If you want to say right now that the league is better and will have more Sweet 16 or Elite 8 or Final 4 teams than the ACC, or the AAC or whatever, you can do that. I'm just waiting to see what happens when they play the games. I hope it turns out that the RPI is right.
On the "likeability" factor, I'm not sure what you find contradictory. The AAC has 10 teams. Five of them have at least 19 wins and are ranked in the top 25. The BE has two. The AAC also has five bottom-feeders, but at least one of those (Temple) is usually a lot better. The BE has some teams that are usually better (Georgetown, Xavier and Marquette). I don't know what to make of post-Stevens Butler yet. The rest of the league has been irrelevant for years. If everybody played up to their history, then the leagues would be comparable, but right now the AAC is clearly better (though the BE has more parity).
Anyway, it's good to see you back posting now that the team is doing well.
I've seen a whole bunch of posts that seem to assume we are going to cruise through the rest of the schedule, except for Nova. My point was that there are at least three other games on the schedule at are easily lose-able. I think we will probably win at least one and possibly two out of the four, and hopefully finish with 20 wins overall and 10 in the league. That's about as optimistic as I get.
As for the rest of your point, I've been a season ticket holder and booster for 27 years. If you don't think I want the program to succeed, well, you're entitled to your opinion. I've only been to 300+ games cheering for St John's, including just about every game Kevin Clark and Norm Roberts ever coached.
Regarding Lavin, it's no secret that I don't think much of his coaching ability. He has some definite strengths, but actual coaching isn't one of them. If it was then we wouldn't be in 7th place in a 10-team league needing to go on an epic tear to be on the NCAA bubble with a group just about everyone says has the most talent in the league.
I don't get your point about who beat whom last year or who you think we might beat if we played them at the right time or at home or whatever. The fact is that the teams that have been subtracted from our schedule are - for the most part - a heck of a lot better than the teams we added. On top of which we have home-and-homes with the added teams, so we get two games against, say Butler, as opposed to a game against Pitt and a game against Louisville. I'm sure you aren't arguing that we have a tougher schedule this year than last year, are you?
IMHO the improvement in our record from last year to this year is due as much to a softer schedule as it is to the team being better. However, it's tough to judge until we see how the BE teams do in the NCAAs. That will either justify or refute the RPI and SOS stats. If you want to say right now that the league is better and will have more Sweet 16 or Elite 8 or Final 4 teams than the ACC, or the AAC or whatever, you can do that. I'm just waiting to see what happens when they play the games. I hope it turns out that the RPI is right.
On the "likeability" factor, I'm not sure what you find contradictory. The AAC has 10 teams. Five of them have at least 19 wins and are ranked in the top 25. The BE has two. The AAC also has five bottom-feeders, but at least one of those (Temple) is usually a lot better. The BE has some teams that are usually better (Georgetown, Xavier and Marquette). I don't know what to make of post-Stevens Butler yet. The rest of the league has been irrelevant for years. If everybody played up to their history, then the leagues would be comparable, but right now the AAC is clearly better (though the BE has more parity).
Anyway, it's good to see you back posting now that the team is doing well.
Tony, I'm talking about the AAC, not the ACC. We all hate the ACC. But there are some great teams and some great league games in the ACC if you're a fan of the sport.
As for Coach, I'd rather he talk less and do more. If the team does not make the NCAAs then that is far more on his shoulders than it is on the players. Unfortunately it took half a season to get organized, but you gotta give him credit for predicting that, right?
As for Coach, I'd rather he talk less and do more. If the team does not make the NCAAs then that is far more on his shoulders than it is on the players. Unfortunately it took half a season to get organized, but you gotta give him credit for predicting that, right?
Agree completely. Beating Seton Hall will go a long way to creating some breathing room. If we can shave that game and the Georgetown game off the schedule as wins then it becomes very do-able. I'm concerned about both games. We aren't a good road team (though better these days) and the Hall plays us tough. And we just never seem to match up well against Georgetown and the offense they run.
The wild card in all of this is if we win the Nova game. I think all the games on the schedule are roughly equal for NCAA chances, but the Nova game is a difference maker if we win it. For some reason I just feel like we have a puncher's chance in that one. If we pull that out and get to 20 wins then I think we're a bubble team even with a close loss in the BET, and we're in with a win. If we beat Nova and get to 21 then I think we're in (barring a bad loss in the BET).
indyredmen97
Member
I agree we need finish at least 5-2 with likely two wins in the BE tourney to make the Dance. I also agree that 4-3 is very possible and that would require a tourney victory (which no longer seems out of the question to me as it did three weeks ago). I'm not sure about the idea of other conferences having more appeal, unless we're talking about ESPN's role in promoting the notion that the Big East ceased to exist because it's not on their network (side note: I love how PTI's Wilbon admitted to watching the first Creighton/SJU game to check out McDermott). Lunardi doesn't seem to factor that in, and he's as good at forecasting these things as anyone. I'm also not going to speculate as to what our coach may or may not say in the event the season does not live up to expectations, hopefully it won't come to that, and honestly my disappointment wouldn't be dampened or enhanced by what Coach or the players would say in those circumstances. This season is starting to remind me of the 2003 season, where it may be too little too late but the team has finally started playing well. Hopefully we stay hot down the stretch as the selection committee has shown the past few years that they'll take a lesser resume if the team is peaking.
Ha! My bad. I automatically read "ACC" instead of "AAC." I'm sure that's not the first time those two leagues will be mixed up.
I am a fan of college BB; it's my favorite sport. But I cannot sit and watch an ACC game. I know there are some good, no, great teams, in that league, but I cannot get past what the league did to the Big East. Actually, I will probably watch them in NCAA games, rooting for the other team every time.
All coaches talk a lot. Get them in front of a mic and they start speaking "coach speak." You don't get a lot of definites, just generalities and platitudes. In that regard, Lavin is no different from any other coach, pro or college. But I still think he's head and shoulders above our previous coach and when I compare where we've been to where we are now, he's done well. But I get that he's not everybody's cup of tea.
Agreed on all counts, especially the concern about SH @ SH. They always play us tough, and when was the last time we won there?
I think we can probably sum it up generally like this: at 4-3 or worse it's win the BET; at 5-2 or better we have a chance at an at-large bid and it depends on variables like who the wins/losses are against, what the rest of the league (especially our bubble comp) does, how we do in the BET, and how many at-large bids get gobbled up by non-tourney teams winning their conference tournament., etc.
I think people complaining they don't want to be in a "play-in" game qualifies as counting chickens.
Lavin thinks five Big East teams will make the dance. That's also counting chickens, even if Lavin is the biggest hypemeister on the air.
He must be including old Big East members Syracuse, Cincinnati, Louisville (all in the top ten), along with Pittsburgh, and UCONN. The sad truth is we're a two team conference with a third coming if Villanova or Creighton don't win the Big East Tournament. Remember, the selection committee must also choose from the AAC and the Atlantic 10, which will bring in more than two teams apiece.
In other words, this is no time for the team to be complacent. Five and two may not be enough. I think we have a solid shot at winning the BET. However, I wouldn't want to depend on it given our past performances.
Lavin thinks five Big East teams will make the dance. That's also counting chickens, even if Lavin is the biggest hypemeister on the air.
He must be including old Big East members Syracuse, Cincinnati, Louisville (all in the top ten), along with Pittsburgh, and UCONN. The sad truth is we're a two team conference with a third coming if Villanova or Creighton don't win the Big East Tournament. Remember, the selection committee must also choose from the AAC and the Atlantic 10, which will bring in more than two teams apiece.
In other words, this is no time for the team to be complacent. Five and two may not be enough. I think we have a solid shot at winning the BET. However, I wouldn't want to depend on it given our past performances.