[quote="Mike Zaun" post=277376]We will never know the exact % of how much recruiting matters vs. coaching unfortunately. [/quote]
No, we won't know the exact percentage. What we do know though is that teams that are in the top tier year after year are those that get top tier recruits year after year and that the coaches of those teams - some of whom are like Rick Pitino in the hall of fame - are willing to break the law to get them. Which is a lot of trouble to go to if any old three star recruit will do.
Steve Lavin recruited one good four year player, one, DA Harrison. Harkless played a year. Sampson played two and when he left it was IIRC addition by subtraction. Phil Greene stunk for two years. Pointer stunk for three. The rest of them were somewhere between average and psychotic. And anyway Lavin is a special case, because he sucked at coaching and was mentally ill besides. That's a lot to overcome. In fact what Lavin demonstrated is that coaching doesn't matter, that stability matters. Because despite how awful he was his seniors twice made the tournament. They didn't make it because they were coached up, Lavin's incapable of coaching anyone up. They won because they were bigger and stronger and more experienced than their opponents.
Yes, of course it's not just recruiting, except at Kentucky and the other places where it is just recruiting. I ask again: name a program that recruits two and three star recruits and has success at a high level. Name a dozen coaches who recruit three star players and compete nationally year after year. I don't think you can.
The top 135 recruits in 2017 were four stars or better; 25 were five star recruits. What you're talking about is giving those 135 recruits to your opponents - the ones who have rosters full of 4 and 5 star players they recruit every year - and coaching up the guys who were in the 200-300 range to be better than their elite players. I don't see how that's a recipe for success. Providence has eight four star recruits on its roster; Marquette has eight; Xavier has 10; Villanova has 11. If you think Danny Hurley or Will Browne or some other mid major dope is going to come to SJ and coach up a bunch of three star recruits to compete with Chris Mack and Doug McDermott's father and classy Jay Wright and their four and five star recruits, I don't know what to tell you. Because those guys are coaching up their four and five star recruits too.
No, we won't know the exact percentage. What we do know though is that teams that are in the top tier year after year are those that get top tier recruits year after year and that the coaches of those teams - some of whom are like Rick Pitino in the hall of fame - are willing to break the law to get them. Which is a lot of trouble to go to if any old three star recruit will do.
Admittedly I used to think if we just got the players, success would follow. One needs to look no further than Lavin who had damn good recruits (from a rankings perspective) good enough for some coaches to make the Sweet 16 with. We got a 5 star Jordan and wasn't Pointer top 25 or 30 nationally? Even with the ineligibilities he still had a top 10 worthy group of recruits. We did make the tourney with that group, however it was by the skin of our teeth and the player development was nonexistent except for Pointer finally emerging in his senior year as an example.
Steve Lavin recruited one good four year player, one, DA Harrison. Harkless played a year. Sampson played two and when he left it was IIRC addition by subtraction. Phil Greene stunk for two years. Pointer stunk for three. The rest of them were somewhere between average and psychotic. And anyway Lavin is a special case, because he sucked at coaching and was mentally ill besides. That's a lot to overcome. In fact what Lavin demonstrated is that coaching doesn't matter, that stability matters. Because despite how awful he was his seniors twice made the tournament. They didn't make it because they were coached up, Lavin's incapable of coaching anyone up. They won because they were bigger and stronger and more experienced than their opponents.
So it's not just recruiting...some coaches find 3 star guys who become 4 star level with good coaching.
Yes, of course it's not just recruiting, except at Kentucky and the other places where it is just recruiting. I ask again: name a program that recruits two and three star recruits and has success at a high level. Name a dozen coaches who recruit three star players and compete nationally year after year. I don't think you can.
but if we can only get top 45-150+ type guys,
The top 135 recruits in 2017 were four stars or better; 25 were five star recruits. What you're talking about is giving those 135 recruits to your opponents - the ones who have rosters full of 4 and 5 star players they recruit every year - and coaching up the guys who were in the 200-300 range to be better than their elite players. I don't see how that's a recipe for success. Providence has eight four star recruits on its roster; Marquette has eight; Xavier has 10; Villanova has 11. If you think Danny Hurley or Will Browne or some other mid major dope is going to come to SJ and coach up a bunch of three star recruits to compete with Chris Mack and Doug McDermott's father and classy Jay Wright and their four and five star recruits, I don't know what to tell you. Because those guys are coaching up their four and five star recruits too.