2024-25 Rankings

I am by far not the top analytics guy on here but I have been reading some. So this is how it looks like to me.

15 or more conference wins and we will be dancing and likely out of the 8/9 game. Obviously the more wins, the higher the seeding.

14 wins and it is highly likely we are in unless some strange things happen or the committee has permanently devalued the Big East. This feels most like the 8/9 game.

13 wins and we will be sweating out selection Sunday and the play in game might feel good.

Anything less and we will need to win the BET.

I think the Big East Tournament most comes into play if we have 13 or 14 wins. The former for improving our chance and the latter more for seeding. 15 or more wins only for seeding and again 12 or less and we have to win it all.

We have known for a while how important grabbing two wins against UCONN and Marquette are. Doing that greatly enhances our chances at getting in with 13 wins in my opinion. If we are able to do that we still have to finish 9-2 in our other games for 15 wins, 8-3 for 14 wins and 7-4 for 13 wins. Obviously this changes based on our results against Marquette and UCONN.

The two teams outside of the big two that we haven't played yet are Villanova and Georgetown and both to some extent look like teams on the rise. Villanova has definitely worked its way to the point that it has some shot at the tournament and Georgetown to the point that you have to take them very seriously.

Grabbing both games at home in the coming week is huge.
 
I am by far not the top analytics guy on here but I have been reading some. So this is how it looks like to me.

15 or more conference wins and we will be dancing and likely out of the 8/9 game. Obviously the more wins, the higher the seeding.

14 wins and it is highly likely we are in unless some strange things happen or the committee has permanently devalued the Big East. This feels most like the 8/9 game.

13 wins and we will be sweating out selection Sunday and the play in game might feel good.

Anything less and we will need to win the BET.

I think the Big East Tournament most comes into play if we have 13 or 14 wins. The former for improving our chance and the latter more for seeding. 15 or more wins only for seeding and again 12 or less and we have to win it all.

We have known for a while how important grabbing two wins against UCONN and Marquette are. Doing that greatly enhances our chances at getting in with 13 wins in my opinion. If we are able to do that we still have to finish 9-2 in our other games for 15 wins, 8-3 for 14 wins and 7-4 for 13 wins. Obviously this changes based on our results against Marquette and UCONN.

The two teams outside of the big two that we haven't played yet are Villanova and Georgetown and both to some extent look like teams on the rise. Villanova has definitely worked its way to the point that it has some shot at the tournament and Georgetown to the point that you have to take them very seriously.

Grabbing both games at home in the coming week is huge.
This sounds right to me, but I do think 15 conference wins needs context. If we're 15-5, but our losses are Marquette 2x, UConn 2x, and Creighton 1x, then I still think we can be a 7/8/9/10 seed. Our best wins would be sweeping Xavier/Georgetown/Villanova and beating Creighton. That's fine, but I don't think that really elevates us.

With the way we scheduled the OOC and how those teams played out, its hard to understate the importance of Marq/UConn games.
 
This sounds right to me, but I do think 15 conference wins needs context. If we're 15-5, but our losses are Marquette 2x, UConn 2x, and Creighton 1x, then I still think we can be a 7/8/9/10 seed. Our best wins would be sweeping Xavier/Georgetown/Villanova and beating Creighton. That's fine, but I don't think that really elevates us.

With the way we scheduled the OOC and how those teams played out, its hard to understate the importance of Marq/UConn games.
Certainly a lot of permutations within my overview.
 
The only permutation that we truly cannot have is any losses to Seton Hall.
Mark my words - the Newark game will be challenging. It's always a struggle there. If their season continues to go into the toilet, perhaps their fans don't show, but if they do it is going to be a Kadary-hate fest with all the inferiority complexes of that fan base manifesting in one night and vocal opposition. And they may get up for that game and Uconn as their Super Bowl.

I do think they win tonight against Depaul and probably string together some other victories, at least at home. But I've been saying that for a while now.
 
Mark my words - the Newark game will be challenging. It's always a struggle there. If their season continues to go into the toilet, perhaps their fans don't show, but if they do it is going to be a Kadary-hate fest with all the inferiority complexes of that fan base manifesting in one night and vocal opposition. And they may get up for that game and Uconn as their Super Bowl.

I do think they win tonight against Depaul and probably string together some other victories, at least at home. But I've been saying that for a while now.
Their fans will be into it. Outside of Wusu, no one played with Kadary so I don't think it's going to be a grudge match. I think it'll be a rock fight for 25 minutes, but the talent disparity will completely and totally blow them away late in the game. They literally can't shoot.

The point I'm making is, losing them is a bad loss on par with Michigan. Their Kenpom at end of year last year was 128. Seton Hall's this year is 152, and it's going to get worse. We cannot afford to lose to them. Our resume doesn't have the buffer for that.
 
Root for Villanova tonight, for a number of reasons, one of them being it'd increase our likelihood of being ranked if they beat UConn and then we beat them. If they beat UConn then I could see the winner of St. John's vs. Nova being ranked. Nova has won 7/8 including vs. (then) #14 Cincinnati. Their overall resume wouldn't merit a ranking, but recency bias is a thing with the AP.

Nova's NET is #49, so beating UConn would really solidify our Saturday game as Q2, and even Q1 (top 30) would be a possibility if they finish strong.
 
There is no way, absolutely no way, Nova is ranked next week even if they win both games this week.

Recency bias combined with them being a major brand that played poorly at the start of the season but turned the corner in a big way. If they win 9/10 including vs. #9 UConn, RV Cincy, and RV St. John's then it's possible. I'm not saying it's likely but it's definitely a real possibility.

Hopefully we beat them and never find out.
 
Root for Villanova tonight, for a number of reasons, one of them being it'd increase our likelihood of being ranked if they beat UConn and then we beat them. If they beat UConn then I could see the winner of St. John's vs. Nova being ranked. Nova has won 7/8 including vs. (then) #14 Cincinnati.

Nova's NET is #49, so beating UConn would really solidify our Saturday game as Q2, and even Q1 (top 30) would be a possibility if they finish strong.
Agree but there could be some concern that
Root for Villanova tonight, for a number of reasons, one of them being it'd increase our likelihood of being ranked if they beat UConn and then we beat them. If they beat UConn then I could see the winner of St. John's vs. Nova being ranked. Nova has won 7/8 including vs. (then) #14 Cincinnati. Their overall resume wouldn't merit a ranking, but recency bias is a thing with the AP.

Nova's NET is #49, so beating UConn would really solidify our Saturday game as Q2, and even Q1 (top 30) would be a possibility if they finish strong.
A couple of downsides. Do we want Nova to get into the tournament conversation if we wind up splitting with them? Could UCONN drop below 30 in the NET without McNeely for a while and we lose a Quad 1 opportunity and then he returns to play us?
 
I am by far not the top analytics guy on here but I have been reading some. So this is how it looks like to me.

15 or more conference wins and we will be dancing and likely out of the 8/9 game. Obviously the more wins, the higher the seeding.

14 wins and it is highly likely we are in unless some strange things happen or the committee has permanently devalued the Big East. This feels most like the 8/9 game.

13 wins and we will be sweating out selection Sunday and the play in game might feel good.

Anything less and we will need to win the BET.

I think the Big East Tournament most comes into play if we have 13 or 14 wins. The former for improving our chance and the latter more for seeding. 15 or more wins only for seeding and again 12 or less and we have to win it all.

We have known for a while how important grabbing two wins against UCONN and Marquette are. Doing that greatly enhances our chances at getting in with 13 wins in my opinion. If we are able to do that we still have to finish 9-2 in our other games for 15 wins, 8-3 for 14 wins and 7-4 for 13 wins. Obviously this changes based on our results against Marquette and UCONN.

The two teams outside of the big two that we haven't played yet are Villanova and Georgetown and both to some extent look like teams on the rise. Villanova has definitely worked its way to the point that it has some shot at the tournament and Georgetown to the point that you have to take them very seriously.

Grabbing both games at home in the coming week is huge.
NM
 
Agree but there could be some concern that

A couple of downsides. Do we want Nova to get into the tournament conversation if we wind up splitting with them? Could UCONN drop below 30 in the NET without McNeely for a while and we lose a Quad 1 opportunity and then he returns to play us?

Fair points but we shouldn't be on the bubble on Selection Sunday and want as many Big East teams in as possible. Also, with UConn having one foot out the door I don't want them to win the Big East this year. Hopefully us, but if not I'd be good with anyone but UConn.
 
I am by far not the top analytics guy on here but I have been reading some. So this is how it looks like to me.

15 or more conference wins and we will be dancing and likely out of the 8/9 game. Obviously the more wins, the higher the seeding.

14 wins and it is highly likely we are in unless some strange things happen or the committee has permanently devalued the Big East. This feels most like the 8/9 game.

13 wins and we will be sweating out selection Sunday and the play in game might feel good.

Anything less and we will need to win the BET.

I think the Big East Tournament most comes into play if we have 13 or 14 wins. The former for improving our chance and the latter more for seeding. 15 or more wins only for seeding and again 12 or less and we have to win it all.

We have known for a while how important grabbing two wins against UCONN and Marquette are. Doing that greatly enhances our chances at getting in with 13 wins in my opinion. If we are able to do that we still have to finish 9-2 in our other games for 15 wins, 8-3 for 14 wins and 7-4 for 13 wins. Obviously this changes based on our results against Marquette and UCONN.

The two teams outside of the big two that we haven't played yet are Villanova and Georgetown and both to some extent look like teams on the rise. Villanova has definitely worked its way to the point that it has some shot at the tournament and Georgetown to the point that you have to take them very seriously.

Grabbing both games at home in the coming week is huge.
I think this is too pessimistic an analysts.
 
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