redfan9999998
Well-known member
Moved up to 31 in Net
Still one worse than last yearMoved up to 31 in Net
This sounds right to me, but I do think 15 conference wins needs context. If we're 15-5, but our losses are Marquette 2x, UConn 2x, and Creighton 1x, then I still think we can be a 7/8/9/10 seed. Our best wins would be sweeping Xavier/Georgetown/Villanova and beating Creighton. That's fine, but I don't think that really elevates us.I am by far not the top analytics guy on here but I have been reading some. So this is how it looks like to me.
15 or more conference wins and we will be dancing and likely out of the 8/9 game. Obviously the more wins, the higher the seeding.
14 wins and it is highly likely we are in unless some strange things happen or the committee has permanently devalued the Big East. This feels most like the 8/9 game.
13 wins and we will be sweating out selection Sunday and the play in game might feel good.
Anything less and we will need to win the BET.
I think the Big East Tournament most comes into play if we have 13 or 14 wins. The former for improving our chance and the latter more for seeding. 15 or more wins only for seeding and again 12 or less and we have to win it all.
We have known for a while how important grabbing two wins against UCONN and Marquette are. Doing that greatly enhances our chances at getting in with 13 wins in my opinion. If we are able to do that we still have to finish 9-2 in our other games for 15 wins, 8-3 for 14 wins and 7-4 for 13 wins. Obviously this changes based on our results against Marquette and UCONN.
The two teams outside of the big two that we haven't played yet are Villanova and Georgetown and both to some extent look like teams on the rise. Villanova has definitely worked its way to the point that it has some shot at the tournament and Georgetown to the point that you have to take them very seriously.
Grabbing both games at home in the coming week is huge.
Certainly a lot of permutations within my overview.This sounds right to me, but I do think 15 conference wins needs context. If we're 15-5, but our losses are Marquette 2x, UConn 2x, and Creighton 1x, then I still think we can be a 7/8/9/10 seed. Our best wins would be sweeping Xavier/Georgetown/Villanova and beating Creighton. That's fine, but I don't think that really elevates us.
With the way we scheduled the OOC and how those teams played out, its hard to understate the importance of Marq/UConn games.
The only permutation that we truly cannot have is any losses to Seton Hall.Certainly a lot of permutations within my overview.
Mark my words - the Newark game will be challenging. It's always a struggle there. If their season continues to go into the toilet, perhaps their fans don't show, but if they do it is going to be a Kadary-hate fest with all the inferiority complexes of that fan base manifesting in one night and vocal opposition. And they may get up for that game and Uconn as their Super Bowl.The only permutation that we truly cannot have is any losses to Seton Hall.
Their fans will be into it. Outside of Wusu, no one played with Kadary so I don't think it's going to be a grudge match. I think it'll be a rock fight for 25 minutes, but the talent disparity will completely and totally blow them away late in the game. They literally can't shoot.Mark my words - the Newark game will be challenging. It's always a struggle there. If their season continues to go into the toilet, perhaps their fans don't show, but if they do it is going to be a Kadary-hate fest with all the inferiority complexes of that fan base manifesting in one night and vocal opposition. And they may get up for that game and Uconn as their Super Bowl.
I do think they win tonight against Depaul and probably string together some other victories, at least at home. But I've been saying that for a while now.
There is no way, absolutely no way, Nova is ranked next week even if they win both games this week.
Agree but there could be some concern thatRoot for Villanova tonight, for a number of reasons, one of them being it'd increase our likelihood of being ranked if they beat UConn and then we beat them. If they beat UConn then I could see the winner of St. John's vs. Nova being ranked. Nova has won 7/8 including vs. (then) #14 Cincinnati.
Nova's NET is #49, so beating UConn would really solidify our Saturday game as Q2, and even Q1 (top 30) would be a possibility if they finish strong.
A couple of downsides. Do we want Nova to get into the tournament conversation if we wind up splitting with them? Could UCONN drop below 30 in the NET without McNeely for a while and we lose a Quad 1 opportunity and then he returns to play us?Root for Villanova tonight, for a number of reasons, one of them being it'd increase our likelihood of being ranked if they beat UConn and then we beat them. If they beat UConn then I could see the winner of St. John's vs. Nova being ranked. Nova has won 7/8 including vs. (then) #14 Cincinnati. Their overall resume wouldn't merit a ranking, but recency bias is a thing with the AP.
Nova's NET is #49, so beating UConn would really solidify our Saturday game as Q2, and even Q1 (top 30) would be a possibility if they finish strong.
NMI am by far not the top analytics guy on here but I have been reading some. So this is how it looks like to me.
15 or more conference wins and we will be dancing and likely out of the 8/9 game. Obviously the more wins, the higher the seeding.
14 wins and it is highly likely we are in unless some strange things happen or the committee has permanently devalued the Big East. This feels most like the 8/9 game.
13 wins and we will be sweating out selection Sunday and the play in game might feel good.
Anything less and we will need to win the BET.
I think the Big East Tournament most comes into play if we have 13 or 14 wins. The former for improving our chance and the latter more for seeding. 15 or more wins only for seeding and again 12 or less and we have to win it all.
We have known for a while how important grabbing two wins against UCONN and Marquette are. Doing that greatly enhances our chances at getting in with 13 wins in my opinion. If we are able to do that we still have to finish 9-2 in our other games for 15 wins, 8-3 for 14 wins and 7-4 for 13 wins. Obviously this changes based on our results against Marquette and UCONN.
The two teams outside of the big two that we haven't played yet are Villanova and Georgetown and both to some extent look like teams on the rise. Villanova has definitely worked its way to the point that it has some shot at the tournament and Georgetown to the point that you have to take them very seriously.
Grabbing both games at home in the coming week is huge.
Agree but there could be some concern that
A couple of downsides. Do we want Nova to get into the tournament conversation if we wind up splitting with them? Could UCONN drop below 30 in the NET without McNeely for a while and we lose a Quad 1 opportunity and then he returns to play us?
Well everyone besides those 2Worst case we get 3 teams and best case 5. 5 is better for everyone even if that means UConn or Marquette drop a seed line or 2.
I think this is too pessimistic an analysts.I am by far not the top analytics guy on here but I have been reading some. So this is how it looks like to me.
15 or more conference wins and we will be dancing and likely out of the 8/9 game. Obviously the more wins, the higher the seeding.
14 wins and it is highly likely we are in unless some strange things happen or the committee has permanently devalued the Big East. This feels most like the 8/9 game.
13 wins and we will be sweating out selection Sunday and the play in game might feel good.
Anything less and we will need to win the BET.
I think the Big East Tournament most comes into play if we have 13 or 14 wins. The former for improving our chance and the latter more for seeding. 15 or more wins only for seeding and again 12 or less and we have to win it all.
We have known for a while how important grabbing two wins against UCONN and Marquette are. Doing that greatly enhances our chances at getting in with 13 wins in my opinion. If we are able to do that we still have to finish 9-2 in our other games for 15 wins, 8-3 for 14 wins and 7-4 for 13 wins. Obviously this changes based on our results against Marquette and UCONN.
The two teams outside of the big two that we haven't played yet are Villanova and Georgetown and both to some extent look like teams on the rise. Villanova has definitely worked its way to the point that it has some shot at the tournament and Georgetown to the point that you have to take them very seriously.
Grabbing both games at home in the coming week is huge.
I think this is too pessimistic an analysts.