I thiink that we are all forgetting one other factor in this discussion. The role of television...and specifically television ratings. IF it comes down to St John's and Colorado (for arguments sake), who would the folks at CBS/TNT/TBS rather have in the tourney?
Normally I tend to discount geography in terms of recruiting...however in this case I don't think that it can be ignored.
In its very heart the NCAA is still a business. Better TV ratings make for higher revenues when charging for advertisement rates next year.
I know we obviously love St. John's but I seriously doubt St. John's moves the needle nationally at all. We've been a national after thought for so many years now that most of the country including CBS and Turner would not care one way or another if we're in the tournament.
You must be a riot to be around at the office holiday party. Yeesh what a wet blanket.
It seems someone around here needs to manage your guys' expectations
And at holiday parties I get more affable by the beer.
Nothing to do with managing expectations. It has eveything to do with just enjoying this run. They don't come around often, and maybe this team has a chance to have that "special" run. Lesser talented teams have done it. Maybe a few drinks will help you do that.
I'm thoroughly enjoying this run but that's not what this thread was about. If there is a thread called "Who else is enjoying this run" then I'll post something about how I am. But this is about their tournament chances and it seem like a lot of people are wearing their Big Apple Rimmed Red Lens Glasses regarding their tournament profile and the effect New York has on getting them in. The NCAA tournament has been doing just fine with or without St. John's. It's probably the most valuable TV real estate outside the NFL. Who ever the committee thinks should be in the tournament will be in the tournament. The teams who drive TV ratings are already locks for the tournament.
Let's put it another way.
Why did the Big 10 accept Rutgers as a member? A bottom feeder in basketball. A team that will be a bottom feeder in football for at least the next 5 years?
It was the thought of $$$$$$$(see, I used a bunch of them) signs. They think (and pray) that Rutgers will bring the NY (and Philly) markets into play for the Big 10 Network. Increased ratings....increased ad revenue rates....more money for the member institutions.
The NCAA does the same thing on a larger scale with basketball. Sure...they want the national powers such as Duke, NC, Kansas in the tourney year after year. But what gets them excited? A St.John's vs UCLA Monday Night Championship game. Every single NCAA TV rating record would be broken if that matchup ever came into being. With that....more revenue for the following year.
I'm sorry but you are way off base with that whole post.
Comparing a college football conference to the NCAA Tournament is like comparing apples and oranges. Everything you said about Rutgers to the Big Ten is true but it's not applicable here. The NCAA Tournament is a monster. In college basketball it's not the teams or markets that make for highly rated games, it's the players and coaches. If it was a St. John's/UCLA final CBS would be worried. There is no players on either team to market to America. Maybe St. John's would pique the interest of the casual fan because as a probably 11 seed they'd be an underdog story but it would have nothing to do with "New York's Own St. John's!!!" Go ask 100 casual college basketball fans West of the Mississippi to name a player on St. John's and I bet a majority of them can't name one. A Kansas/Creighton final would have more juice nationally because the game can be marketed around Wiggins/Embiid and McDermott or a Louisville/Duke final with Pitino and Coach K.
And ask Gina from Brooklyn or Joe from Jersey City, or Jack from Los Angeles, all of whom are non college basketball fans if they are watching Monday nights Kansas/Creighton game. The answer would be, what is a Creighton. Now....ask Gina if she knows what St. John's is.....and will she watch this one college basketball game in her lifetime....the answer is yes.
There are a lot more non-basketball fans out there than casual basketball fans.
To argue that CBS for a championship game would rather have the Lawrence, Kansas and Omaha, Nebraska markets in play, rather than the NY and Los Angeles markets....is simply nuts. (No offense).
You are way too hung up on markets. Last year an average of 23.4 million viewers watched the National Championship games and the teams were from Kentucky and Ohio. It was the highest rated tournament in 23 years and there was nary a New York City team to be found. The tournament final had twice the viewers of the World Series. The event is market proof or CBS and Turner wouldn't have spent so much on it. The only thing that lower ratings to a game like that is not having marquee PLAYERS OR COACHES and even still it's going to be watched by over 20 million.
You're going to need a new line of defense.
No new line is needed.
A record number of people viewed the game last year. What does that have to do with the markets? Can you not understand that by having hometown teams playing in the game from the 2 largest markets, there will be increased viewership? Can you understand how with the scenario that I described, perhaps 27 million viewers will tune in....simply because you are attracting from a larger and deeper pool?
Having compelling players and coaches are nice. This gets you the core fans and the casual fan. Do you not think that for 2 weeks CBS would not market Lavin? Or for the week leading up to the Final 4 promote a Lavin vs UCLA angle? All of which will bring in the non basketball fan. Of which there are tens of millions in NY and LA combined.
The mayor of NY and the mayor of LA make a bet on the game. Folks in their respective cities care about it. Combined, there are about 50 million people in their geographic areas.
The mayor of Lawrence and the mayor of Omaha make a bet on the game. Folks in their respective cities care about it. Combined, maybe 1 million people in their geographic areas. (I'm guessing).
Now...you are a TV exec. Which teams would you rather have in the game? McDemott/Wiggins and 1 million? Or Lavin/UCLA history and 50 million?
Pass the popcorn...can't wait for this answer!
