Three Wins from a ticket to the dance

[TobinGrad]

Team needs to get to 22 wins to control own destiny. Anything less and they are depending on a bit of luck and chance and how other bubble teams perform.

 

[simplyred]

I agree. 21 and I'm nervous as hell. 22 is almost certain and 23 is a lock. I want it to be a lock.

 

[postell25]

I agree. 21 and I'm nervous as hell. 22 is almost certain and 23 is a lock. I want it to be a lock.

Wins alone aren't the only criteria
Last year 4 teams got at larges to the NCAAs with 20 wins yet 7 high major schools with 21 or more wins got at-larges to the NIT.
The most important factor on an NCAA tournament resume is who have you beaten. Until we get that one more signature win we will be sweating no matter who else we've beaten to close the season. Other than Nova, we're not playing anyone else who will greatly improve our RPI or SOS.

 

[Andrew]

I think the #31 Pomeroy rating means something in this discussion.

 

[beast of the east]

I agree. 21 and I'm nervous as hell. 22 is almost certain and 23 is a lock. I want it to be a lock.

Wins alone aren't the only criteria
Last year 4 teams got at larges to the NCAAs with 20 wins yet 7 high major schools with 21 or more wins got at-larges to the NIT.
The most important factor on an NCAA tournament resume is who have you beaten. Until we get that one more signature win we will be sweating no matter who else we've beaten to close the season. Other than Nova, we're not playing anyone else who will greatly improve our RPI or SOS.

The selection committee know that even in a new Big East conference that you play 18 pretty competitive games, as opposed to weaker conferences. That's why I think our in conference record will prevail since SOS is not an absolute criteria.

 

[Porgyman]

I thiink that we are all forgetting one other factor in this discussion. The role of television...and specifically television ratings. IF it comes down to St John's and Colorado (for arguments sake), who would the folks at CBS/TNT/TBS rather have in the tourney?
Normally I tend to discount geography in terms of recruiting...however in this case I don't think that it can be ignored.

In its very heart the NCAA is still a business. Better TV ratings make for higher revenues when charging for advertisement rates next year.

 

[postell25]

I thiink that we are all forgetting one other factor in this discussion. The role of television...and specifically television ratings. IF it comes down to St John's and Colorado (for arguments sake), who would the folks at CBS/TNT/TBS rather have in the tourney?
Normally I tend to discount geography in terms of recruiting...however in this case I don't think that it can be ignored.

In its very heart the NCAA is still a business. Better TV ratings make for higher revenues when charging for advertisement rates next year.

I know we obviously love St. John's but I seriously doubt St. John's moves the needle nationally at all. We've been a national after thought for so many years now that most of the country including CBS and Turner would not care one way or another if we're in the tournament.

 

[kranmars]

I thiink that we are all forgetting one other factor in this discussion. The role of television...and specifically television ratings. IF it comes down to St John's and Colorado (for arguments sake), who would the folks at CBS/TNT/TBS rather have in the tourney?
Normally I tend to discount geography in terms of recruiting...however in this case I don't think that it can be ignored.

In its very heart the NCAA is still a business. Better TV ratings make for higher revenues when charging for advertisement rates next year.

I know we obviously love St. John's but I seriously doubt St. John's moves the needle nationally at all. We've been a national after thought for so many years now that most of the country including CBS and Turner would not care one way or another if we're in the tournament.

You must be a riot to be around at the office holiday party. Yeesh what a wet blanket.

 

[TonyinFairfield]

I thiink that we are all forgetting one other factor in this discussion. The role of television...and specifically television ratings. IF it comes down to St John's and Colorado (for arguments sake), who would the folks at CBS/TNT/TBS rather have in the tourney?
Normally I tend to discount geography in terms of recruiting...however in this case I don't think that it can be ignored.

In its very heart the NCAA is still a business. Better TV ratings make for higher revenues when charging for advertisement rates next year.

I know we obviously love St. John's but I seriously doubt St. John's moves the needle nationally at all. We've been a national after thought for so many years now that most of the country including CBS and Turner would not care one way or another if we're in the tournament.

While you make a valid point, I took Porgyman's post a little differently. Since we play in the media capital of the world, our press and recognition, including on television, will be that much greater than a school who is in a small to mid level media market. So I take it as more than just TV ratings, but overall exposure.

Whether the Selection Committee takes that into account at all is another matter.

 

[postell25]

I thiink that we are all forgetting one other factor in this discussion. The role of television...and specifically television ratings. IF it comes down to St John's and Colorado (for arguments sake), who would the folks at CBS/TNT/TBS rather have in the tourney?
Normally I tend to discount geography in terms of recruiting...however in this case I don't think that it can be ignored.

In its very heart the NCAA is still a business. Better TV ratings make for higher revenues when charging for advertisement rates next year.

I know we obviously love St. John's but I seriously doubt St. John's moves the needle nationally at all. We've been a national after thought for so many years now that most of the country including CBS and Turner would not care one way or another if we're in the tournament.

You must be a riot to be around at the office holiday party. Yeesh what a wet blanket.

It seems someone around here needs to manage your guys' expectations

And at holiday parties I get more affable by the beer.

 

[Porgyman]

I thiink that we are all forgetting one other factor in this discussion. The role of television...and specifically television ratings. IF it comes down to St John's and Colorado (for arguments sake), who would the folks at CBS/TNT/TBS rather have in the tourney?
Normally I tend to discount geography in terms of recruiting...however in this case I don't think that it can be ignored.

In its very heart the NCAA is still a business. Better TV ratings make for higher revenues when charging for advertisement rates next year.

I know we obviously love St. John's but I seriously doubt St. John's moves the needle nationally at all. We've been a national after thought for so many years now that most of the country including CBS and Turner would not care one way or another if we're in the tournament.

While you make a valid point, I took Porgyman's post a little differently. Since we play in the media capital of the world, our press and recognition, including on television, will be that much greater than a school who is in a small to mid level media market. So I take it as more than just TV ratings, but overall exposure.

Whether the Selection Committee takes that into account at all is another matter.

Tony - That is exactly what I am saying.

Friday night at 9 pm. First round of the tourney. CBS can have St John's vs Iowa, or Colorado vs Iowa playing in the NYC market. Which would they choose?
Second round....St. John's vs UCLA (capturing the NY and LA markets) on Sunday afternoon.....or Iowa vs UCLA. Which one would they rather have?

Postell - You are correct, we have been an afterthought for years. However CBS would drool over those possibilities.

 

[beast of the east]

I thiink that we are all forgetting one other factor in this discussion. The role of television...and specifically television ratings. IF it comes down to St John's and Colorado (for arguments sake), who would the folks at CBS/TNT/TBS rather have in the tourney?
Normally I tend to discount geography in terms of recruiting...however in this case I don't think that it can be ignored.

In its very heart the NCAA is still a business. Better TV ratings make for higher revenues when charging for advertisement rates next year.

I know we obviously love St. John's but I seriously doubt St. John's moves the needle nationally at all. We've been a national after thought for so many years now that most of the country including CBS and Turner would not care one way or another if we're in the tournament.

We are in the biggest media market in the country. People will tune in to St. John's before an Iona, or any team from podunk. The NCAA derives revenue from TV, and they know all things being equal, a New York team will a much bigger share = a bigger contract. If you don't think that the bottom line for the NCAA is $$$$$$$$ (enough $ signs?) then we are all deluding ourselves.

 

[kranmars]

I thiink that we are all forgetting one other factor in this discussion. The role of television...and specifically television ratings. IF it comes down to St John's and Colorado (for arguments sake), who would the folks at CBS/TNT/TBS rather have in the tourney?
Normally I tend to discount geography in terms of recruiting...however in this case I don't think that it can be ignored.

In its very heart the NCAA is still a business. Better TV ratings make for higher revenues when charging for advertisement rates next year.

I know we obviously love St. John's but I seriously doubt St. John's moves the needle nationally at all. We've been a national after thought for so many years now that most of the country including CBS and Turner would not care one way or another if we're in the tournament.

You must be a riot to be around at the office holiday party. Yeesh what a wet blanket.

It seems someone around here needs to manage your guys' expectations

And at holiday parties I get more affable by the beer.

Nothing to do with managing expectations. It has eveything to do with just enjoying this run. They don't come around often, and maybe this team has a chance to have that "special" run. Lesser talented teams have done it. Maybe a few drinks will help you do that.

 

[postell25]

I thiink that we are all forgetting one other factor in this discussion. The role of television...and specifically television ratings. IF it comes down to St John's and Colorado (for arguments sake), who would the folks at CBS/TNT/TBS rather have in the tourney?
Normally I tend to discount geography in terms of recruiting...however in this case I don't think that it can be ignored.

In its very heart the NCAA is still a business. Better TV ratings make for higher revenues when charging for advertisement rates next year.

I know we obviously love St. John's but I seriously doubt St. John's moves the needle nationally at all. We've been a national after thought for so many years now that most of the country including CBS and Turner would not care one way or another if we're in the tournament.

You must be a riot to be around at the office holiday party. Yeesh what a wet blanket.

It seems someone around here needs to manage your guys' expectations

And at holiday parties I get more affable by the beer.

Nothing to do with managing expectations. It has eveything to do with just enjoying this run. They don't come around often, and maybe this team has a chance to have that "special" run. Lesser talented teams have done it. Maybe a few drinks will help you do that.

I'm thoroughly enjoying this run but that's not what this thread was about. If there is a thread called "Who else is enjoying this run" then I'll post something about how I am. But this is about their tournament chances and it seem like a lot of people are wearing their Big Apple Rimmed Red Lens Glasses regarding their tournament profile and the effect New York has on getting them in. The NCAA tournament has been doing just fine with or without St. John's. It's probably the most valuable TV real estate outside the NFL. Who ever the committee thinks should be in the tournament will be in the tournament. The teams who drive TV ratings are already locks for the tournament.

 

[beast of the east]

I thiink that we are all forgetting one other factor in this discussion. The role of television...and specifically television ratings. IF it comes down to St John's and Colorado (for arguments sake), who would the folks at CBS/TNT/TBS rather have in the tourney?
Normally I tend to discount geography in terms of recruiting...however in this case I don't think that it can be ignored.

In its very heart the NCAA is still a business. Better TV ratings make for higher revenues when charging for advertisement rates next year.

I know we obviously love St. John's but I seriously doubt St. John's moves the needle nationally at all. We've been a national after thought for so many years now that most of the country including CBS and Turner would not care one way or another if we're in the tournament.

You must be a riot to be around at the office holiday party. Yeesh what a wet blanket.

It seems someone around here needs to manage your guys' expectations

And at holiday parties I get more affable by the beer.

Nothing to do with managing expectations. It has eveything to do with just enjoying this run. They don't come around often, and maybe this team has a chance to have that "special" run. Lesser talented teams have done it. Maybe a few drinks will help you do that.

I'm thoroughly enjoying this run but that's not what this thread was about. If there is a thread called "Who else is enjoying this run" then I'll post something about how I am. But this is about their tournament chances and it seem like a lot of people are wearing their Big Apple Rimmed Red Lens Glasses regarding their tournament profile and the effect New York has on getting them in. The NCAA tournament has been doing just fine with or without St. John's. It's probably the most valuable TV real estate outside the NFL. Who ever the committee thinks should be in the tournament will be in the tournament. The teams who drive TV ratings are already locks for the tournament.

Hey, my position is that being a NY team will not cause the NCAA to automatically select St. John's. I am saying that once you are on the bubble and they are behind closed doors, they are looking at a lot of factors. There is nothing entirely objective about the selection since records don't mean a heck of a lot - which is why we have SOS, which is also a subjective system albeit an attempt to quantify. So, for example, if you are the defending NCAA champion with a strong returning cast and you are on the bubble, do you take that team with 10 losses let's say, or Alpaca State at 28-2, but second in the conference? You try to put together a competitive tournament.

For years people have believed that the Patrick Ewing number 1 pick envelope was kept in a freezer for the Knicks to select, because a strong team in New York meant a lot of money for the NBA. That's pretty irrelevant to this discussion except to say that it's hard to ignore the NYC metro area population of 20 million, as compared to a small market.

While St. John's may not have a national appeal of a Duke, if we are talking about potential audience as a factor in decision (which you verified by referring to the locks who bring in audience) anyone who sells anything knows the NYC media market is important.

Having said that I will go on record as declaring that if we finish 11-7 in conference, we are a lock for the tournament. You may feel different, which is your prerogative. In any event, the odds still are against 11-7. We will know much more by Saturday evening in that regard.

 

[Jack Williams]

Let's not act like we are a ways away from an at large bid. Joe lunardi has us in the tournament safely as of right now. We can act like only one top 25 win isn't enough to get in, but that's wrong according to Joe Lunardi, who's accuracy rate is amazing every year, and he has us in.

Listen, I get why some of you are reluctant to get excited. But it's right there. We are so close to it.

Also, I believe with obekpa back we run through the BET and none of this talk will end up mattering.

 

[Porgyman]

I thiink that we are all forgetting one other factor in this discussion. The role of television...and specifically television ratings. IF it comes down to St John's and Colorado (for arguments sake), who would the folks at CBS/TNT/TBS rather have in the tourney?
Normally I tend to discount geography in terms of recruiting...however in this case I don't think that it can be ignored.

In its very heart the NCAA is still a business. Better TV ratings make for higher revenues when charging for advertisement rates next year.

I know we obviously love St. John's but I seriously doubt St. John's moves the needle nationally at all. We've been a national after thought for so many years now that most of the country including CBS and Turner would not care one way or another if we're in the tournament.

You must be a riot to be around at the office holiday party. Yeesh what a wet blanket.

It seems someone around here needs to manage your guys' expectations

And at holiday parties I get more affable by the beer.

Nothing to do with managing expectations. It has eveything to do with just enjoying this run. They don't come around often, and maybe this team has a chance to have that "special" run. Lesser talented teams have done it. Maybe a few drinks will help you do that.

I'm thoroughly enjoying this run but that's not what this thread was about. If there is a thread called "Who else is enjoying this run" then I'll post something about how I am. But this is about their tournament chances and it seem like a lot of people are wearing their Big Apple Rimmed Red Lens Glasses regarding their tournament profile and the effect New York has on getting them in. The NCAA tournament has been doing just fine with or without St. John's. It's probably the most valuable TV real estate outside the NFL. Who ever the committee thinks should be in the tournament will be in the tournament. The teams who drive TV ratings are already locks for the tournament.

Let's put it another way.
Why did the Big 10 accept Rutgers as a member? A bottom feeder in basketball. A team that will be a bottom feeder in football for at least the next 5 years?
It was the thought of $$$$$$$(see, I used a bunch of them) signs. They think (and pray) that Rutgers will bring the NY (and Philly) markets into play for the Big 10 Network. Increased ratings....increased ad revenue rates....more money for the member institutions.
The NCAA does the same thing on a larger scale with basketball. Sure...they want the national powers such as Duke, NC, Kansas in the tourney year after year. But what gets them excited? A St.John's vs UCLA Monday Night Championship game. Every single NCAA TV rating record would be broken if that matchup ever came into being. With that....more revenue for the following year.

 

[MCNPA]

I thiink that we are all forgetting one other factor in this discussion. The role of television...and specifically television ratings. IF it comes down to St John's and Colorado (for arguments sake), who would the folks at CBS/TNT/TBS rather have in the tourney?
Normally I tend to discount geography in terms of recruiting...however in this case I don't think that it can be ignored.

In its very heart the NCAA is still a business. Better TV ratings make for higher revenues when charging for advertisement rates next year.

I know we obviously love St. John's but I seriously doubt St. John's moves the needle nationally at all. We've been a national after thought for so many years now that most of the country including CBS and Turner would not care one way or another if we're in the tournament.

You must be a riot to be around at the office holiday party. Yeesh what a wet blanket.

It seems someone around here needs to manage your guys' expectations

And at holiday parties I get more affable by the beer.

Nothing to do with managing expectations. It has eveything to do with just enjoying this run. They don't come around often, and maybe this team has a chance to have that "special" run. Lesser talented teams have done it. Maybe a few drinks will help you do that.

I'm thoroughly enjoying this run but that's not what this thread was about. If there is a thread called "Who else is enjoying this run" then I'll post something about how I am. But this is about their tournament chances and it seem like a lot of people are wearing their Big Apple Rimmed Red Lens Glasses regarding their tournament profile and the effect New York has on getting them in. The NCAA tournament has been doing just fine with or without St. John's. It's probably the most valuable TV real estate outside the NFL. Who ever the committee thinks should be in the tournament will be in the tournament. The teams who drive TV ratings are already locks for the tournament.

Let's put it another way.
Why did the Big 10 accept Rutgers as a member? A bottom feeder in basketball. A team that will be a bottom feeder in football for at least the next 5 years?
It was the thought of $$$$$$$(see, I used a bunch of them) signs. They think (and pray) that Rutgers will bring the NY (and Philly) markets into play for the Big 10 Network. Increased ratings....increased ad revenue rates....more money for the member institutions.
The NCAA does the same thing on a larger scale with basketball. Sure...they want the national powers such as Duke, NC, Kansas in the tourney year after year. But what gets them excited? A St.John's vs UCLA Monday Night Championship game. Every single NCAA TV rating record would be broken if that matchup ever came into being. With that....more revenue for the following year.

I'd actually love to draw Uconn in the tourney somewhere along the way if we make it. Would be a fun matchup. I think we down it.

 

[postell25]

I thiink that we are all forgetting one other factor in this discussion. The role of television...and specifically television ratings. IF it comes down to St John's and Colorado (for arguments sake), who would the folks at CBS/TNT/TBS rather have in the tourney?
Normally I tend to discount geography in terms of recruiting...however in this case I don't think that it can be ignored.

In its very heart the NCAA is still a business. Better TV ratings make for higher revenues when charging for advertisement rates next year.

I know we obviously love St. John's but I seriously doubt St. John's moves the needle nationally at all. We've been a national after thought for so many years now that most of the country including CBS and Turner would not care one way or another if we're in the tournament.

You must be a riot to be around at the office holiday party. Yeesh what a wet blanket.

It seems someone around here needs to manage your guys' expectations

And at holiday parties I get more affable by the beer.

Nothing to do with managing expectations. It has eveything to do with just enjoying this run. They don't come around often, and maybe this team has a chance to have that "special" run. Lesser talented teams have done it. Maybe a few drinks will help you do that.

I'm thoroughly enjoying this run but that's not what this thread was about. If there is a thread called "Who else is enjoying this run" then I'll post something about how I am. But this is about their tournament chances and it seem like a lot of people are wearing their Big Apple Rimmed Red Lens Glasses regarding their tournament profile and the effect New York has on getting them in. The NCAA tournament has been doing just fine with or without St. John's. It's probably the most valuable TV real estate outside the NFL. Who ever the committee thinks should be in the tournament will be in the tournament. The teams who drive TV ratings are already locks for the tournament.

Let's put it another way.
Why did the Big 10 accept Rutgers as a member? A bottom feeder in basketball. A team that will be a bottom feeder in football for at least the next 5 years?
It was the thought of $$$$$$$(see, I used a bunch of them) signs. They think (and pray) that Rutgers will bring the NY (and Philly) markets into play for the Big 10 Network. Increased ratings....increased ad revenue rates....more money for the member institutions.
The NCAA does the same thing on a larger scale with basketball. Sure...they want the national powers such as Duke, NC, Kansas in the tourney year after year. But what gets them excited? A St.John's vs UCLA Monday Night Championship game. Every single NCAA TV rating record would be broken if that matchup ever came into being. With that....more revenue for the following year.

I'm sorry but you are way off base with that whole post.

Comparing a college football conference to the NCAA Tournament is like comparing apples and oranges. Everything you said about Rutgers to the Big Ten is true but it's not applicable here. The NCAA Tournament is a monster. In college basketball it's not the teams or markets that make for highly rated games, it's the players and coaches. If it was a St. John's/UCLA final CBS would be worried. There is no players on either team to market to America. Maybe St. John's would pique the interest of the casual fan because as a probably 11 seed they'd be an underdog story but it would have nothing to do with "New York's Own St. John's!!!" Go ask 100 casual college basketball fans West of the Mississippi to name a player on St. John's and I bet a majority of them can't name one. A Kansas/Creighton final would have more juice nationally because the game can be marketed around Wiggins/Embiid and McDermott or a Louisville/Duke final with Pitino and Coach K.

 

[Eddyman11]

Let's not act like we are a ways away from an at large bid. Joe lunardi has us in the tournament safely as of right now. We can act like only one top 25 win isn't enough to get in, but that's wrong according to Joe Lunardi, who's accuracy rate is amazing every year, and he has us in.

Listen, I get why some of you are reluctant to get excited. But it's right there. We are so close to it.

Also, I believe with obekpa back we run through the BET and none of this talk will end up mattering.

haha Jack Ive learned to manage my excitement (I'm a big time NY Jet fan also) the hard way. Do you think we pull out both Nova and Marquette? If we beat Nova - I will let my excitement run wild!!! Like Johnny Manziel at Keg party wild!