Three Wins from a ticket to the dance

[redmen2014champs]

They certainly don't have to win 3 straight, although we all want them to win out, 2 out of 3 to close out regular season most likely puts them in. 2 out of 3 and one win in the BET they would be a lock to be dancing. This loss does not hurt them although a win would have put them in the tournament.

 

[Class of 72]

We played so poorly, that we lost a close game to the number 9 team in the country on the road in a game that we could have won .Without Sanchez and an injured CO.

Richard, not defending Joe but we lost because we executed poorly in the second half and missed an Easter basket full of bunnies. It was also close because Nova is not playiing particularly well of late and they are grossly over-ranked at 9. The backcourt play was subpar in comparison to our previous games. Jamal Branch cemented his place on the bench when he resorted to his old self by driving into traffic and being stuffed and committing foolish fouls in record time. Our shot selection, especially by D'Lo were on the January level. Yes, it was close but our shooting was poor if you look at the stats.

 

[lawmanfan]

They certainly don't have to win 3 straight, although we all want them to win out, 2 out of 3 to close out regular season most likely puts them in. 2 out of 3 and one win in the BET they would be a lock to be dancing. This loss does not hurt them although a win would have put them in the tournament.

Love your optimism, but no.

 

[Class of 72]

They certainly don't have to win 3 straight, although we all want them to win out, 2 out of 3 to close out regular season most likely puts them in. 2 out of 3 and one win in the BET they would be a lock to be dancing. This loss does not hurt them although a win would have put them in the tournament.

Easy to say but not in the realm of possibility. We have one signature win and two tough games coming up. They will need to get to 22 wins and reach the Big East Tourney final. It is possible but next week we will drop from the bubble if we do not beat Xavier.

 

[Section3]

If they don't dance, Penn St, DePaul and Providence are the reasons.
Team should have had 20 wins a while ago.

Seasons do have ebbs and flows, and you always want the games back when you played horribly. No doubt DePaul and Providence could come back to hurt them, but I don't know that we played any better today than in either of those games. A win today, and they would have for the first time appeared to be a tourney team. Now they have to win three straight, which they can do, but it wont be as easy having to win at Marquette with everything on the line.

Beast, I'd agree that we didn't play much better offensively especially in last 6 minutes...But, we are a totally different team defensively now...I believe this is the key to our resurgence...If we played defense in those games with the same degree of commitment and sense of urgency the results IMO would have been different...

The Providence and DePaul games, in particular, were not just games we should have won - but had won

 

[simplyred]

We were a scared basketball team until the final buzzer of the SHU game. Had we blown that game, the season would have continued to spiral. Just hanging on took away the pressure of winning their first Big East game. Their confidence has been soaring since. Yesterday was the first real letdown since that game (2nd SHU game, to an extent). I hope they get back on track for Xavier.

 

[simplyred]

Lunardi is still adjusting his brackets minutes before the selection show. He talks to many experts in forming his brackets. Let's not make him out to be Karnac. If he made a bracket at the beginning of the year and stuck to it, it would be amazing. Analyzing data and making adjustments until the end is good work but it is not a miracle.

 

[redmen2014champs]

They certainly don't have to win 3 straight, although we all want them to win out, 2 out of 3 to close out regular season most likely puts them in. 2 out of 3 and one win in the BET they would be a lock to be dancing. This loss does not hurt them although a win would have put them in the tournament.

Easy to say but not in the realm of possibility. We have one signature win and two tough games coming up. They will need to get to 22 wins and reach the Big East Tourney final. It is possible but next week we will drop from the bubble if we do not beat Xavier.

What fact do you have to back up "not in the realm of possibility"? Fact, they are in right now according to Lunardi, fact, they are in a highly rated conference and would be either 3rd or 4th team getting in, as of now. Simple math, Beating Xavier and DePaul but losing a road game to Marquette, for example, in which they will be slight underdogs will not lower their current rating. Almost a certainty, the other bubble teams that they are ahead of or on par with are not going to win all of their games. Keep being a pessimist as usual but the facts make it a very high percentage that they get in by winning 2 out of 3 and 1 game in the BET. People who are saying 1 loss and they are done just don't know how the system works.

 

[postell25]

They certainly don't have to win 3 straight, although we all want them to win out, 2 out of 3 to close out regular season most likely puts them in. 2 out of 3 and one win in the BET they would be a lock to be dancing. This loss does not hurt them although a win would have put them in the tournament.

Easy to say but not in the realm of possibility. We have one signature win and two tough games coming up. They will need to get to 22 wins and reach the Big East Tourney final. It is possible but next week we will drop from the bubble if we do not beat Xavier.

What fact do you have to back up "not in the realm of possibility"? Fact, they are in right now according to Lunardi, fact, they are in a highly rated conference and would be either 3rd or 4th team getting in, as of now. Simple math, Beating Xavier and DePaul but losing a road game to Marquette, for example, in which they will be slight underdogs will not lower their current rating. Almost a certainty, the other bubble teams that they are ahead of or on par with are not going to win all of their games. Keep being a pessimist as usual but the facts make it a very high percentage that they get in by winning 2 out of 3 and 1 game in the BET. People who are saying 1 loss and they are done just don't know how the system works.

When Lunardi does his brackets it's based on if the season ended today. We could win these three games but that doesn't mean we couldn't easily be leapfrogged by teams below us. Our profile doesn't stand out at all among others just like us.

Providence is right below us on his S Curve and while they probably won't beat Crieghton on the road, the opportunity is there for them.
Tennessee is in the same boat as us. One really good win and not really a chance to get another signature win,
If Oklahoma State plays well with Marcus Smart they will jump us without a question. Memphis, Texas and Colorado (with Dinwiddie) are nice wins.
Minnesota still has chances at Michigan and Iowa
Dayton still has St. Louis and UMass

What people seem to be forgetting is that a few bids are going to be stolen after the conference tournaments are played. Not beating Nova put us in a situation where no matter what happens the rest of the way (short of winning the BET), we will be sweating on Selection Sunday.

And what people also seem to be forgetting is that there are a few bids stolen after these conference tournaments are played.

 

[Jack Williams]

Someone on holy land of hoops had a solid post arguing our tournament chances:



Here we go again, Steve. Best OOC win is USF? Who cares? The committee has said repeatedly that they look at the overall record, the total body of work.

You're acting like 1-5 vs top 25 is a deal breaker for an at large bid. How many wins do you think teams ranked in the 40's and 50's are getting against the top 25? Here's sample of the teams St. John's is competing against of an at -large bid and what their record is against the top 25:

Cal (1-6)
Dayton (2-3)
Baylor (2-6)
Oklahoma State (2-4)
Tennessee (1-5)
St. Joe's (2-4)
SMU (2-4)
Stanford (2-5)
Missouri (1-2)
Oregon (1-4)
Memphis (2-5)
Southern Miss (0-1)
Oklahoma (2-4)
Pitt (0-6)
BYU (1-4)
Gonzaga (0-1)
UCLA (1-3)
Kentucky (1-3)
Minnesota (2-7)
Richmond (1-4)

Everyone has 1 or 2 wins vs the top 25. Pitt is 0-6! I guess their chances for a bid are shot, right? St. John's is 6-4 vs the rest of the top 100. It's not like they haven't beaten anyone any good. BTW, St. John's has as many wins vs the top 25 as Wichita State. If only one win vs the top 25 doesn't rule a team out for a 1-seed, why should it rule a team out for an at-large bid?

 

[postell25]

Someone on holy land of hoops had a solid post arguing our tournament chances:



Here we go again, Steve. Best OOC win is USF? Who cares? The committee has said repeatedly that they look at the overall record, the total body of work.

You're acting like 1-5 vs top 25 is a deal breaker for an at large bid. How many wins do you think teams ranked in the 40's and 50's are getting against the top 25? Here's sample of the teams St. John's is competing against of an at -large bid and what their record is against the top 25:

Cal (1-6)
Dayton (2-3)
Baylor (2-6)
Oklahoma State (2-4)
Tennessee (1-5)
St. Joe's (2-4)
SMU (2-4)
Stanford (2-5)
Missouri (1-2)
Oregon (1-4)
Memphis (2-5)
Southern Miss (0-1)
Oklahoma (2-4)
Pitt (0-6)
BYU (1-4)
Gonzaga (0-1)
UCLA (1-3)
Kentucky (1-3)
Minnesota (2-7)
Richmond (1-4)

Everyone has 1 or 2 wins vs the top 25. Pitt is 0-6! I guess their chances for a bid are shot, right? St. John's is 6-4 vs the rest of the top 100. It's not like they haven't beaten anyone any good. BTW, St. John's has as many wins vs the top 25 as Wichita State. If only one win vs the top 25 doesn't rule a team out for a 1-seed, why should it rule a team out for an at-large bid?

I don't disagree with any of that. If the season ended today they are just as good a candidate as anyone. My concern is that other teams have a better chance to pad their resume this late than St. John's does. That's all.

 

[Marillac]

These top 50 or top 100 categories are such arbitrary bullsh*t. We haven't played top 25...we've played top ten. Six games already v. Top ten RPI teams. Does it mattered if a team beats #48 or #53? I wish we did play some teams ranked 20-25.

 

[postell25]

These top 50 or top 100 categories are such arbitrary bullsh*t. We haven't played top 25...we've played top ten. Six games already v. Top ten RPI teams. Does it mattered if a team beats #48 or #53? I wish we did play some teams ranked 20-25.

Of course the number is arbitrary to us but the reality is that the selection committee does use it.

And nitpicking a little, it would probably matter if a #48 beat a #53 since both of those teams are probably fighting for a tournament birth and the #48 would have won head to head.

I think Lavin will be scheduling at least one or more higher profile non conference games. We never really had to because you'd get enough of them in the Big East. The Big East this year has two outliers at the top, a mess of teams in the 50-65 range and the bottom of the conference is around 100. We are kind of the like the Missouri Valley(relax...I'm not comparing the talent level between the two conferences just that it was well balanced also) around 2004-2005 when they would just beat each other up and they'd be a two bid conference. But then they learned how to manipulate the RPI and by 2006 they were sending 4 teams to the NCAA tournament and another left out who is still the lowest RPI to be left out of the tournament (#21).

The Big East has to do something similar now. Be careful how they schedule in non-conference. Replace those sub-250 RPI wins with wins in the 100-150 range instead. It's added risk because the teams are better but it does wonders for the RPI. In St. John's case, replace the Longwood (#335), Dartmouth (#293) and Monmouth (#281) with teams like Morehead State, Eastern Kentucky and William and Mary and our RPI is in the mid 40s.

 

[SJU61982]

These top 50 or top 100 categories are such arbitrary bullsh*t. We haven't played top 25...we've played top ten. Six games already v. Top ten RPI teams. Does it mattered if a team beats #48 or #53? I wish we did play some teams ranked 20-25.

Of course the number is arbitrary to us but the reality is that the selection committee does use it.

And nitpicking a little, it would probably matter if a #48 beat a #53 since both of those teams are probably fighting for a tournament birth and the #48 would have won head to head.

I think Lavin will be scheduling at least one or more higher profile non conference games. We never really had to because you'd get enough of them in the Big East. The Big East this year has two outliers at the top, a mess of teams in the 50-65 range and the bottom of the conference is around 100. We are kind of the like the Missouri Valley(relax...I'm not comparing the talent level between the two conferences just that it was well balanced also) around 2004-2005 when they would just beat each other up and they'd be a two bid conference. But then they learned how to manipulate the RPI and by 2006 they were sending 4 teams to the NCAA tournament and another left out who is still the lowest RPI to be left out of the tournament (#21).

The Big East has to do something similar now. Be careful how they schedule in non-conference. Replace those sub-250 RPI wins with wins in the 100-150 range instead. It's added risk because the teams are better but it does wonders for the RPI. In St. John's case, replace the Longwood (#335), Dartmouth (#293) and Monmouth (#281) with teams like Morehead State, Eastern Kentucky and William and Mary and our RPI is in the mid 40s.

Once again, I'm forced to bring up the fact that Monmouth and Longwood were assinged to us, we did not schedule them. Part of doing business in those preseason tournaments.
That's something, IMO, that the committee should take into account and not penalize us for. Not that we should be rewarded for it, but maybe don't count it as a sub-200 victory.

Non-conference should be tougher next year simply because of the fact that we are playing Cuse at the Dome.

 

[SJUalum98]

Someone on holy land of hoops had a solid post arguing our tournament chances:



Here we go again, Steve. Best OOC win is USF? Who cares? The committee has said repeatedly that they look at the overall record, the total body of work.

You're acting like 1-5 vs top 25 is a deal breaker for an at large bid. How many wins do you think teams ranked in the 40's and 50's are getting against the top 25? Here's sample of the teams St. John's is competing against of an at -large bid and what their record is against the top 25:

Cal (1-6)
Dayton (2-3)
Baylor (2-6)
Oklahoma State (2-4)
Tennessee (1-5)
St. Joe's (2-4)
SMU (2-4)
Stanford (2-5)
Missouri (1-2)
Oregon (1-4)
Memphis (2-5)
Southern Miss (0-1)
Oklahoma (2-4)
Pitt (0-6)
BYU (1-4)
Gonzaga (0-1)
UCLA (1-3)
Kentucky (1-3)
Minnesota (2-7)
Richmond (1-4)

Everyone has 1 or 2 wins vs the top 25. Pitt is 0-6! I guess their chances for a bid are shot, right? St. John's is 6-4 vs the rest of the top 100. It's not like they haven't beaten anyone any good. BTW, St. John's has as many wins vs the top 25 as Wichita State. If only one win vs the top 25 doesn't rule a team out for a 1-seed, why should it rule a team out for an at-large bid?

Best post I've seen summarizing the current bubble landscape.

Thanks for the perspective.

 

[tom in salem]

These top 50 or top 100 categories are such arbitrary bullsh*t. We haven't played top 25...we've played top ten. Six games already v. Top ten RPI teams. Does it mattered if a team beats #48 or #53? I wish we did play some teams ranked 20-25.

Of course the number is arbitrary to us but the reality is that the selection committee does use it.

And nitpicking a little, it would probably matter if a #48 beat a #53 since both of those teams are probably fighting for a tournament birth and the #48 would have won head to head.

I think Lavin will be scheduling at least one or more higher profile non conference games. We never really had to because you'd get enough of them in the Big East. The Big East this year has two outliers at the top, a mess of teams in the 50-65 range and the bottom of the conference is around 100. We are kind of the like the Missouri Valley(relax...I'm not comparing the talent level between the two conferences just that it was well balanced also) around 2004-2005 when they would just beat each other up and they'd be a two bid conference. But then they learned how to manipulate the RPI and by 2006 they were sending 4 teams to the NCAA tournament and another left out who is still the lowest RPI to be left out of the tournament (#21).

The Big East has to do something similar now. Be careful how they schedule in non-conference. Replace those sub-250 RPI wins with wins in the 100-150 range instead. It's added risk because the teams are better but it does wonders for the RPI. In St. John's case, replace the Longwood (#335), Dartmouth (#293) and Monmouth (#281) with teams like Morehead State, Eastern Kentucky and William and Mary and our RPI is in the mid 40s.

Once again, I'm forced to bring up the fact that Monmouth and Longwood were assinged to us, we did not schedule them. Part of doing business in those preseason tournaments.
That's something, IMO, that the committee should take into account and not penalize us for. Not that we should be rewarded for it, but maybe don't count it as a sub-200 victory.

Non-conference should be tougher next year simply because of the fact that we are playing Cuse at the Dome.

Also, with the exception of Creighton, all the BE teams should be better next year.
Should definitely have more than 3 teams with RPI's better than # 50.

 

[Andrew]

These top 50 or top 100 categories are such arbitrary bullsh*t. We haven't played top 25...we've played top ten. Six games already v. Top ten RPI teams. Does it mattered if a team beats #48 or #53? I wish we did play some teams ranked 20-25.

Of course the number is arbitrary to us but the reality is that the selection committee does use it.

And nitpicking a little, it would probably matter if a #48 beat a #53 since both of those teams are probably fighting for a tournament birth and the #48 would have won head to head.

I think Lavin will be scheduling at least one or more higher profile non conference games. We never really had to because you'd get enough of them in the Big East. The Big East this year has two outliers at the top, a mess of teams in the 50-65 range and the bottom of the conference is around 100. We are kind of the like the Missouri Valley(relax...I'm not comparing the talent level between the two conferences just that it was well balanced also) around 2004-2005 when they would just beat each other up and they'd be a two bid conference. But then they learned how to manipulate the RPI and by 2006 they were sending 4 teams to the NCAA tournament and another left out who is still the lowest RPI to be left out of the tournament (#21).

The Big East has to do something similar now. Be careful how they schedule in non-conference. Replace those sub-250 RPI wins with wins in the 100-150 range instead. It's added risk because the teams are better but it does wonders for the RPI. In St. John's case, replace the Longwood (#335), Dartmouth (#293) and Monmouth (#281) with teams like Morehead State, Eastern Kentucky and William and Mary and our RPI is in the mid 40s.

Once again, I'm forced to bring up the fact that Monmouth and Longwood were assinged to us, we did not schedule them. Part of doing business in those preseason tournaments.
That's something, IMO, that the committee should take into account and not penalize us for. Not that we should be rewarded for it, but maybe don't count it as a sub-200 victory.

Non-conference should be tougher next year simply because of the fact that we are playing Cuse at the Dome.

Also, with the exception of Creighton, all the BE teams should be better next year.
Should definitely have more than 3 teams with RPI's better than # 50.

Not convinced Providence and DePaul will be better.