Three Wins from a ticket to the dance

[postell25]

I don't think it's that cut and dry. If we lose to Nova and beat Xavier, DePaul and Marquette we're still only looking at one top 50 RPI win on the year and those three wins wouldn't do a whole lot in pushing our RPI down. Beating Nova this weekend is pivotal if we want to breathe easy on Selection Sunday. It's a soft bubble this year and there are a lot of teams with similar resumes. What hurts us is that the committee says they no longer takes how you finished the season in to account. It's your whole body of work.

Lose to Nova and I still think we need two wins in the Big East tournament to be safe.

21 wins and 11-7 in a Top 4-5 conference will do it. We would have a good road/neutral court record and I don't buy that playing hot down the stretch is no longer considered. They can say all they want but they will pick the red hot team over a stumbler all day.

Exactly! Gary Williams made the same point yesterday. They can claim they are looking at the body of work but human nature is always "What have you done for me lately".

Perfect example would be a team like us versus a team like OSU Cowboys a few games ago. They were trending down with a decent resume and we were trending up with a decent resume. I think we would have the edge in the eyes of the Selection Committee

I think it depends on how the team looks when Marcus Smart comes back. If they play well then the last three losses won't even count. It's like Colorado and Spencer Dinwiddie. They are going to the tournament based on their body of work but they'll probably drop at least 2 or 3 seed lines since they won't have (arguably) their best player.

Aka what happened to us and DJ. Unwritten rule but its something they do behind those closed doors.

I was thinking the same thing. The selection committee explained that we got a lower seed than we earned because we weren't as good a team without DJ. That logic to me was astonishing. So if we got an automatic bid and our top 3 players contracts pneumonia or Epstein bar that they would drop us altogether?

I think they really started weighing it with Kenyon Martin in the 1999-2000 season. They go 16-0 in Conference USA and are like 25-2 and on the way to a 1 seed. He gets hurt early in the first round CUSA tourney game and they lose to St. Louis. Which even with a healthy Kenyon Martin would have probably dropped them to a 2 seed but they got a 2 any way. I remember at the time there was talk that they should have been dropped to a 6 or 7 seed without him. And of course they blow out a 15 seed then lose to Tulsa in the second round.

The committee's job it to make the best tournament possible. They don't owe any team anything. DJ was a huge player for us and our leading rebounder. The seed bump was justified.

They are there to make the best tournament possible? I don't know if I agree but for argument sake lets say I do. Then you take the hot team over the stumbling one. You take the major team over the mid major. Lots of variables then.

Why would you take a major team over a mid major if the mid major is better? Conference affiliation has no bearing on making the NCAA Tournament. Of course the better your conference the better your resume numbers will look. The only reason conferences are looked at by the committee is to make sure they don't play in the first round or two

And I'm not saying that they shouldn't take the hotter of the two teams. I can only go by what they say their criteria is. Who am I to speculate what goes on in that room.

 

[postell25]

I see the logic behind dropping a team that has lost its best player but I dont agree with it. You earned your place and deserve to keep it. Imagine if the same applied to D-1 Football?

Excuse my ignorance, but who makes up the Selection Committee? is it Media and former coaches?

It's most athletic directors usually. Maybe a conference commissioner. If you are on the selection committee and have a team on the bubble you have to leave the room while it's being discussed. If your a conference commissioner you have to leave the room whenever your conference is discussed.

 

[Moose]

I don't think it's that cut and dry. If we lose to Nova and beat Xavier, DePaul and Marquette we're still only looking at one top 50 RPI win on the year and those three wins wouldn't do a whole lot in pushing our RPI down. Beating Nova this weekend is pivotal if we want to breathe easy on Selection Sunday. It's a soft bubble this year and there are a lot of teams with similar resumes. What hurts us is that the committee says they no longer takes how you finished the season in to account. It's your whole body of work.

Lose to Nova and I still think we need two wins in the Big East tournament to be safe.

21 wins and 11-7 in a Top 4-5 conference will do it. We would have a good road/neutral court record and I don't buy that playing hot down the stretch is no longer considered. They can say all they want but they will pick the red hot team over a stumbler all day.

Exactly! Gary Williams made the same point yesterday. They can claim they are looking at the body of work but human nature is always "What have you done for me lately".

Perfect example would be a team like us versus a team like OSU Cowboys a few games ago. They were trending down with a decent resume and we were trending up with a decent resume. I think we would have the edge in the eyes of the Selection Committee

I think it depends on how the team looks when Marcus Smart comes back. If they play well then the last three losses won't even count. It's like Colorado and Spencer Dinwiddie. They are going to the tournament based on their body of work but they'll probably drop at least 2 or 3 seed lines since they won't have (arguably) their best player.

Aka what happened to us and DJ. Unwritten rule but its something they do behind those closed doors.

I was thinking the same thing. The selection committee explained that we got a lower seed than we earned because we weren't as good a team without DJ. That logic to me was astonishing. So if we got an automatic bid and our top 3 players contracts pneumonia or Epstein bar that they would drop us altogether?

I think they really started weighing it with Kenyon Martin in the 1999-2000 season. They go 16-0 in Conference USA and are like 25-2 and on the way to a 1 seed. He gets hurt early in the first round CUSA tourney game and they lose to St. Louis. Which even with a healthy Kenyon Martin would have probably dropped them to a 2 seed but they got a 2 any way. I remember at the time there was talk that they should have been dropped to a 6 or 7 seed without him. And of course they blow out a 15 seed then lose to Tulsa in the second round.

The committee's job it to make the best tournament possible. They don't owe any team anything. DJ was a huge player for us and our leading rebounder. The seed bump was justified.

They are there to make the best tournament possible? I don't know if I agree but for argument sake lets say I do. Then you take the hot team over the stumbling one. You take the major team over the mid major. Lots of variables then.

Why would you take a major team over a mid major if the mid major is better? Conference affiliation has no bearing on making the NCAA Tournament. Of course the better your conference the better your resume numbers will look. The only reason conferences are looked at by the committee is to make sure they don't play in the first round or two

And I'm not saying that they shouldn't take the hotter of the two teams. I can only go by what they say their criteria is. Who am I to speculate what goes on in that room.

My point was if your argument was they are to make the best tournament possible, most likely the major team has better players and better talent and is better used to playing against the big boys. The major team probably has a higher SOS and might have lost a few but might have lost a bunch of close games to those other major teams. Thats' all.

Anyway we're clearly on two sides of the fence. Good discussion. Lets see what happens. Still too early.

 

[postell25]

I see the logic behind dropping a team that has lost its best player but I dont agree with it. You earned your place and deserve to keep it. Imagine if the same applied to D-1 Football?

But you're not the same team that earned it. If Syracuse ran the table the rest of the way and CJ Fair tears his ACL in the final minute of the ACC title game I'd be hard pressed to keep them as a 1 seed.

 

[postell25]

I don't think it's that cut and dry. If we lose to Nova and beat Xavier, DePaul and Marquette we're still only looking at one top 50 RPI win on the year and those three wins wouldn't do a whole lot in pushing our RPI down. Beating Nova this weekend is pivotal if we want to breathe easy on Selection Sunday. It's a soft bubble this year and there are a lot of teams with similar resumes. What hurts us is that the committee says they no longer takes how you finished the season in to account. It's your whole body of work.

Lose to Nova and I still think we need two wins in the Big East tournament to be safe.

21 wins and 11-7 in a Top 4-5 conference will do it. We would have a good road/neutral court record and I don't buy that playing hot down the stretch is no longer considered. They can say all they want but they will pick the red hot team over a stumbler all day.

Exactly! Gary Williams made the same point yesterday. They can claim they are looking at the body of work but human nature is always "What have you done for me lately".

Perfect example would be a team like us versus a team like OSU Cowboys a few games ago. They were trending down with a decent resume and we were trending up with a decent resume. I think we would have the edge in the eyes of the Selection Committee

I think it depends on how the team looks when Marcus Smart comes back. If they play well then the last three losses won't even count. It's like Colorado and Spencer Dinwiddie. They are going to the tournament based on their body of work but they'll probably drop at least 2 or 3 seed lines since they won't have (arguably) their best player.

Aka what happened to us and DJ. Unwritten rule but its something they do behind those closed doors.

I was thinking the same thing. The selection committee explained that we got a lower seed than we earned because we weren't as good a team without DJ. That logic to me was astonishing. So if we got an automatic bid and our top 3 players contracts pneumonia or Epstein bar that they would drop us altogether?

I think they really started weighing it with Kenyon Martin in the 1999-2000 season. They go 16-0 in Conference USA and are like 25-2 and on the way to a 1 seed. He gets hurt early in the first round CUSA tourney game and they lose to St. Louis. Which even with a healthy Kenyon Martin would have probably dropped them to a 2 seed but they got a 2 any way. I remember at the time there was talk that they should have been dropped to a 6 or 7 seed without him. And of course they blow out a 15 seed then lose to Tulsa in the second round.

The committee's job it to make the best tournament possible. They don't owe any team anything. DJ was a huge player for us and our leading rebounder. The seed bump was justified.

They are there to make the best tournament possible? I don't know if I agree but for argument sake lets say I do. Then you take the hot team over the stumbling one. You take the major team over the mid major. Lots of variables then.

Why would you take a major team over a mid major if the mid major is better? Conference affiliation has no bearing on making the NCAA Tournament. Of course the better your conference the better your resume numbers will look. The only reason conferences are looked at by the committee is to make sure they don't play in the first round or two

And I'm not saying that they shouldn't take the hotter of the two teams. I can only go by what they say their criteria is. Who am I to speculate what goes on in that room.

My point was if your argument was they are to make the best tournament possible, most likely the major team has better players and better talent and is better used to playing against the big boys. The major team probably has a higher SOS and might have lost a few but might have lost a bunch of close games to those other major teams. Thats' all.

Anyway we're clearly on two sides of the fence. Good discussion. Lets see what happens. Still too early.

A mid major team may be full of upperclassmen who have been playing together for 3 and 4 years and better equipped to handle the stage better than 18 and 19 years olds.

 

[SJUalum98]

I don't think 3 wins pencils us into anything.

Lavin will be wearing a diaper on Selection Sunday and rightfully so.

Knock off Nova and then we'd be cooking.

 

[postell25]

I don't think 3 wins pencils us into anything.

Lavin will be wearing a diaper on Selection Sunday and rightfully so.

Knock off Nova and then we'd be cooking.

Exactly.

 

[Moose]

I don't think 3 wins pencils us into anything.

Lavin will be wearing a diaper on Selection Sunday and rightfully so.

Knock off Nova and then we'd be cooking.

A better analogy could have been in order, no?

 

[ccnobz]

I don't think 3 wins pencils us into anything.

Lavin will be wearing a diaper on Selection Sunday and rightfully so.

Knock off Nova and then we'd be cooking.

Exactly.

I'm thinking any combo of 4 more wins and STJ will be safe.

 

[beast of the east]

I don't think 3 wins pencils us into anything.

Lavin will be wearing a diaper on Selection Sunday and rightfully so.

Knock off Nova and then we'd be cooking.

Guarantee this: The only way that an 11-7 team won't make the dance is it there is a three way tie for third place in the Big East at 11-7 and they only take 4 teams. I'd wager that bet if anyone wants to takes it private me.

 

[SJUalum98]

I don't think 3 wins pencils us into anything.

Lavin will be wearing a diaper on Selection Sunday and rightfully so.

Knock off Nova and then we'd be cooking.

A better analogy could have been in order, no?

Ok.

On Selection Sunday, Steve Lavin could build a house with the amount of bricks he'll be....

You get my point. He needs this in a big way in spite of how he may play Joe Cool.

Like you said, Lunardi is the key. I think he may have only gotten one team wrong last year IIRC.

 

[SJUalum98]

I don't think 3 wins pencils us into anything.

Lavin will be wearing a diaper on Selection Sunday and rightfully so.

Knock off Nova and then we'd be cooking.

Guarantee this: The only way that an 11-7 team won't make the dance is it there is a three way tie for third place in the Big East at 11-7 and they only take 4 teams. I'd wager that bet if anyone wants to takes it private me.

We're a ways away from 11 BE wins. Can we do it? Of course.

But I have a strong feeling that either Xavier or Marquette gets hot.

We just have to stay the course.

I think if we knocked of Nova on the road and lost the remaining 3 games, that would hold more weight than going 11-7 heading into the BE tourney.

 

[beast of the east]

I don't think 3 wins pencils us into anything.

Lavin will be wearing a diaper on Selection Sunday and rightfully so.

Knock off Nova and then we'd be cooking.

Guarantee this: The only way that an 11-7 team won't make the dance is it there is a three way tie for third place in the Big East at 11-7 and they only take 4 teams. I'd wager that bet if anyone wants to takes it private me.

We're a ways away from 11 BE wins. Can we do it? Of course.

But I have a strong feeling that either Xavier or Marquette gets hot.

We just have to stay the course.

I think if we knocked of Nova on the road and lost the remaining 3 games, that would hold more weight than going 11-7 heading into the BE tourney.

9-9 would make the NIT. If you like the NIT, you can keep your NIT. Period.

 

[room112]

I don't think 3 wins pencils us into anything.

Lavin will be wearing a diaper on Selection Sunday and rightfully so.

Knock off Nova and then we'd be cooking.

Guarantee this: The only way that an 11-7 team won't make the dance is it there is a three way tie for third place in the Big East at 11-7 and they only take 4 teams. I'd wager that bet if anyone wants to takes it private me.

We're a ways away from 11 BE wins. Can we do it? Of course.

But I have a strong feeling that either Xavier or Marquette gets hot.

We just have to stay the course.

I think if we knocked of Nova on the road and lost the remaining 3 games, that would hold more weight than going 11-7 heading into the BE tourney.

Marquette and Xavier both have tougher schedules than us to finish the year

 

[SJU1512]

3-1 will come close to locking it up (certainly 3-1 + a single BET win locks it up), but I don't think we need 3-1 to get in. Certainly 1-3 means needing to win the BET.

2-2 keeps us in play. Oddly I think the most important prerequisite of 2-2 is that one of the losses not come against DePaul. In the new BE sweeping and getting swept is a big deal. We've swept 2 with a chance for one more, and have been swept by nobody. Getting swept by DePaul would be a real stain on the resume.

You take care of DePaul and make sure you get at least one more - perhaps preferably against Xavier so that they (as tourney bubble competition) can't boast a sweep over us - and we'll be in the mix. A road win over Nova or Marquette on top of that would probably come close to sealing it.

 

[postell25]

I don't think 3 wins pencils us into anything.

Lavin will be wearing a diaper on Selection Sunday and rightfully so.

Knock off Nova and then we'd be cooking.

Guarantee this: The only way that an 11-7 team won't make the dance is it there is a three way tie for third place in the Big East at 11-7 and they only take 4 teams. I'd wager that bet if anyone wants to takes it private me.

Not all wins are created equally. I would not take that bet because if they beat Nova and DePaul but lose to Xavier and Marquette I think they have a better shot at making the tournament at 10-8 than going 11-7 without beating Nova. You have to dive deeper in to the resume than just conference wins. Especially since the Big East isn't much stronger than the A10 or Mountain West any more.

 

[SJUalum98]

I don't think 3 wins pencils us into anything.

Lavin will be wearing a diaper on Selection Sunday and rightfully so.

Knock off Nova and then we'd be cooking.

Guarantee this: The only way that an 11-7 team won't make the dance is it there is a three way tie for third place in the Big East at 11-7 and they only take 4 teams. I'd wager that bet if anyone wants to takes it private me.

We're a ways away from 11 BE wins. Can we do it? Of course.

But I have a strong feeling that either Xavier or Marquette gets hot.

We just have to stay the course.

I think if we knocked of Nova on the road and lost the remaining 3 games, that would hold more weight than going 11-7 heading into the BE tourney.

Marquette and Xavier both have tougher schedules than us to finish the year

A tough schedule doesn't mean they can't get hot or knock off a big time opponent on their home court.

Providence had every opportunity to upset Nova last night.

Would anyone really be shocked if Marquette beats Creighton tonight?

To Beast: 9-9 doesn't take into account what happens in the BE tourney. It was just a hypothetical scenario. If we lose to Nova, I'm sure Lunardi knocks us down from bye to bubble or play-in. If we beat them, it just becomes a matter of seeding regardless of what happens the rest of the way IMO.

 

[sirvoo]

It's a very weak bubble this year in case nobody noticed. Win at Nova and we are a virtual lock. That's not to say we finish 0-3 and lose in the BE tourney and we're in. It just means if you win 10 of 11 including nova and Creighton, there's no way you are finishing 0-4

 

[beast of the east]

At the risk of counting our chickens, let's just beat Nova and worry about the rest afterwards.

 

[Marillac]

like does a juror really ignore something said in court because the judge tells them to?

Perfectly stated.
These guys spends days locked in a room championing certain teams over others. They are human and, as such, they want to be right. Who would you get behind a team like OSU that has lost 7-8 straight or a a team like St. John's who has won 9/10 games?

I am a little disappointed with the RPI at 49, but we are #31 in KenPom, #43 in BPI, and #36 in SOS.
As of this weekend, we will have played RPI #3, #5 twice, #6, and #8 twice. Nobody else can say that. Hopefully we can walk away with two wins in that group, but we also played every single top ten RPI team close. At some point in all of those games we looked looked like the better team. I wish we could play Syracuse and Wisconsin now.

21 gets us in. With a few exceptions, the teams ranked between 30-50 have multiple losses left. We will not be denied 21 wins, 11-7 in conference...but I would be disappointed if we didn't win at least a game in the Big East Tournament. It's in our city and our arena after all.