(PRE-GAME) @Villanova, Tues., Jan. 8, 7p, FS-1 / 970 AM

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[quote="Paul Massell" post=313261]Some interesting stats for SJU/Nova matchup:
1) SJU #1 offense (Nova #7)
2) Nov #1 defense (SJU #8 )
3) FG% SJU #2 / Nov #9
4) 3FG% SJU #2 / Nov #7
5) Def Rebounding Nov #1 / SJU #10
6) Assists: SJU #2 / Nov #10 (this one stands out to me)
7) Steals SJU #1 / Nova #9
8 ) Turnover Margin SJU #1 / Nov #5
9) Assist/TO Ratio SJU #1 / Nova #8
10) O Reb Nov #4 / SJU #10[/quote]
Don't feel good about No. 10. It's our Achilles heel.
 
[quote="IDRAFT" post=313304]
How is offense and defense derived? If it is only points scored, for and against, pace of play will just define both.[/quote]

These are the stats the Big East puts out.

St. John's is number 1 in both total points scored and average points scored. The defense is the opposite. Total points scored against and average points scored against. The averages are the defining number as the Big East ranks. St. John's is also #1 in scoring margin and Villanova is #4

FG% defense, St. John's #2 is actually better than Nova#8
&
3FG% defense pretty close Nova #2 / SJU #4

[attachment=618]1819MBBstats.pdf[/attachment]
 
SJU's team speed and Ponds in particular will probably influence Wright to play zone. SJU will have to hit their three point attempts.
 
[quote="Manhattan1" post=313315]Gus and raft on the call tomorrow as well![/quote]

Over under “lefty from Brooklyn” mentions? Putting it at 5.
 
[quote="Paul Massell" post=313311][quote="IDRAFT" post=313304]
How is offense and defense derived? If it is only points scored, for and against, pace of play will just define both.[/quote]

These are the stats the Big East puts out.

St. John's is number 1 in both total points scored and average points scored. The defense is the opposite. Total points scored against and average points scored against. The averages are the defining number as the Big East ranks. St. John's is also #1 in scoring margin and Villanova is #4

FG% defense, St. John's #2 is actually better than Nova#8
&
3FG% defense pretty close Nova #2 / SJU #4

[attachment=618]1819MBBstats.pdf[/attachment][/quote]

Do you think our defensive numbers suffer because we play an uptempo game that leads to more shots and thus more points allowed? Am I over thinking this?
 
[quote="Room112" post=313329][quote="Paul Massell" post=313311][quote="IDRAFT" post=313304]
How is offense and defense derived? If it is only points scored, for and against, pace of play will just define both.[/quote]

These are the stats the Big East puts out.

St. John's is number 1 in both total points scored and average points scored. The defense is the opposite. Total points scored against and average points scored against. The averages are the defining number as the Big East ranks. St. John's is also #1 in scoring margin and Villanova is #4

FG% defense, St. John's #2 is actually better than Nova#8
&
3FG% defense pretty close Nova #2 / SJU #4

[attachment=618]1819MBBstats.pdf[/attachment][/quote]

Do you think our defensive numbers suffer because we play an uptempo game that leads to more shots and thus more points allowed? Am I over thinking this?[/quote]

You are not overthinking it at all. There are more accurate metrics that can be used to find out true offensive and defensive efficiency like Points/possession and I'm sure others. And for rebounding stats you could look at average rebounding margin or offensive/defensive rebound percentages. Every game I look at the teams offensive and defensive rebounding percentages. If you add the two figures and they don't get to 100 you have lost the rebounding battle. Raw figures are effected by how many shots each team misses.
 
[quote="Room112" post=313329]
Do you think our defensive numbers suffer because we play an uptempo game that leads to more shots and thus more points allowed? Am I over thinking this?[/quote]

Defensively our numbers are good for the most part and very good in some areas e.g. #1 in steals. I suspect the percentages would be even higher without giving up so many offensive rebounds and the totals would too... That is the biggest disparity I think. We give up points on second chances. Easy putbacks are high percentage.

I also think there is some design to this. Not that they want to suck at defensive rebounding but that it is de-prioritized in favor of other things.
 
[quote="thetux1" post=313337]Nova is a 6 pt fave. Let’s see how much that moves tomorrow. I’m guessing it goes to about 4[/quote]

If Stephens is doing the game, it may move to 8.
 
[quote="OLV72" post=313338][quote="thetux1" post=313337]Nova is a 6 pt fave. Let’s see how much that moves tomorrow. I’m guessing it goes to about 4[/quote]

If Stephens is doing the game, it may move to 8.[/quote]

Lol. He may feel he owes us
 
[quote="thetux1" post=313342][quote="OLV72" post=313338][quote="thetux1" post=313337]Nova is a 6 pt fave. Let’s see how much that moves tomorrow. I’m guessing it goes to about 4[/quote]

If Stephens is doing the game, it may move to 8.[/quote]

Lol. He may feel he owes us[/quote]


No way Tux. He's a Providence guy. He's out to screw us.
 
[quote="Room112" post=313329][quote="Paul Massell" post=313311][quote="IDRAFT" post=313304]
How is offense and defense derived? If it is only points scored, for and against, pace of play will just define both.[/quote]

These are the stats the Big East puts out.

St. John's is number 1 in both total points scored and average points scored. The defense is the opposite. Total points scored against and average points scored against. The averages are the defining number as the Big East ranks. St. John's is also #1 in scoring margin and Villanova is #4

FG% defense, St. John's #2 is actually better than Nova#8
&
3FG% defense pretty close Nova #2 / SJU #4

[attachment=618]1819MBBstats.pdf[/attachment][/quote]

Do you think our defensive numbers suffer because we play an uptempo game that leads to more shots and thus more points allowed? Am I over thinking this?[/quote]

My thoughts exactly. Points allowed is not an accurate assay of defense

Shooting % allowed, but even then, w a height deficit opposition will get more put backs
 
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https://nypost.com/2019/01/07/st-johns-has-yet-to-earn-respect-of-oddsmakers-statheads/


Chance to earn their respect tonight big time. Respect the hell out of Nova, won't be easy to beat them twice in a row at home, but we have the athletes to do it if we play tight three point defense, turn them over some & hit our fouls shots while avoiding silly reach in fouls. Can't wait until 7 pm. Won't have to watch this one on my laptop!
 
[quote="NCJohnnie" post=313361]https://nypost.com/2019/01/07/st-johns-has-yet-to-earn-respect-of-oddsmakers-statheads/


Chance to earn their respect tonight big time. Respect the hell out of Nova, won't be easy to beat them twice in a row at home, but we have the athletes to do it if we play tight three point defense, turn them over some & hit our fouls shots while avoiding silly reach in fouls. Can't wait until 7 pm. Won't have to watch this one on my laptop![/quote]

At the time of that marquette game we were just coming off our "loss" to seton hall and everyone was anointing marquette the best team in the big east so im sure that had something to do with that spread. I am a bit surprised villanova is favored by 6 to open up. I would have thought nova should be favored by about 3 in the minds of the line creators.
 
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To lower your blood pressure, think of this game as a freebie. You should lose away to Villanova, but if we win its a great chip in our pocket that could lead to a BE reg season title, and ward off a potential home loss to them in Feb.
 
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