NET rankings

[quote="bamafan" post=318559][quote="Adam" post=318558][quote="NCJohnnie" post=318547]To me as of right now, we have five bubble teams (I'd definitely include Providence) of whom 2 (3 at most) will likely get in at the end of the day. I am not going by current NET number just by the 5 teams I think can possibly finish strongly in league play.[/quote]

Honestly if Providence, Xavier, or Georgetown finished around 11-7 they'd have a good chance to make the Dance. They're not far off the bubble.

Looking at Bracket Matrix averages (and how many analysts have them in the Dance):
Marquette: 3 seed average (98/98 analysts have them in)
Villanova: 5 seed (98/98)
St. John's: 11 seed (95/98)
Seton Hall: 11 seed (67/98)
Butler: 2nd team out (34/98)
Creighton: 3rd team out (31/98)
Providence: 2 brackets (2/98)
Georgetown: 1 bracket (1/98)
DePaul: 1 bracket (1/98)

Here's something interesting, of the 4 bubble teams:
Creighton: 3-4
Butler: 3-5
Seton Hall: 3-5
St. John's: 3-5

Because St. John's is best positioned of the 4 bubble teams, despite having the same/worse record, that means analysts view our OOC as the strongest of the 4. That doesn't surprise me, but it does show that our OOC is strong.[/quote]
Not necessarily it would depend on how the teams did in OOC games and we were 12-0 so that may be why. SH definitely played better teams ie. Maryland and kentucky.[/quote]

I meant our OOC performance is the strongest (the fact we went 12-0). Our OOC SOS sucks, but since we're 12-0 that makes up for it. Our OOC NET is easily the strongest among Butler/Hall/Creighton.

I could see the case being made for Hall's OOC being better than ours (their SOS was far stronger and they got a few Q1 wins), however all their impressive wins were by a couple points which hurts them in the NET. Think their OOC NET was around 55 while ours was 25. I actually expect the committee to put Hall into the Tournament even if their NET finishes around 55. They've been unfairly hurt by NET and not given enough credit for their OOC.
 
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Thanks for clarifying that. The teams brightest spot is that no matter how bad the OOC SOS was they won them all. They may only have 1 quality win but an undefeated OOC schedule is good no matter the level of competition. Put STJ in a better starting position than the other bubble teams in the BE.
 
[quote="Adam" post=318561][quote="bamafan" post=318559][quote="Adam" post=318558][quote="NCJohnnie" post=318547]To me as of right now, we have five bubble teams (I'd definitely include Providence) of whom 2 (3 at most) will likely get in at the end of the day. I am not going by current NET number just by the 5 teams I think can possibly finish strongly in league play.[/quote]

Honestly if Providence, Xavier, or Georgetown finished around 11-7 they'd have a good chance to make the Dance. They're not far off the bubble.

Looking at Bracket Matrix averages (and how many analysts have them in the Dance):
Marquette: 3 seed average (98/98 analysts have them in)
Villanova: 5 seed (98/98)
St. John's: 11 seed (95/98)
Seton Hall: 11 seed (67/98)
Butler: 2nd team out (34/98)
Creighton: 3rd team out (31/98)
Providence: 2 brackets (2/98)
Georgetown: 1 bracket (1/98)
DePaul: 1 bracket (1/98)

Here's something interesting, of the 4 bubble teams:
Creighton: 3-4
Butler: 3-5
Seton Hall: 3-5
St. John's: 3-5

Because St. John's is best positioned of the 4 bubble teams, despite having the same/worse record, that means analysts view our OOC as the strongest of the 4. That doesn't surprise me, but it does show that our OOC is strong.[/quote]
Not necessarily it would depend on how the teams did in OOC games and we were 12-0 so that may be why. SH definitely played better teams ie. Maryland and kentucky.[/quote]

I meant our OOC performance is the strongest (the fact we went 12-0). Our OOC SOS sucks, but since we're 12-0 that makes up for it. Our OOC NET is easily the strongest among Butler/Hall/Creighton.

I could see the case being made for Hall's OOC being better than ours (their SOS was far stronger and they got a few Q1 wins), however all their impressive wins were by a couple points which hurts them in the NET. Think their OOC NET was around 55 while ours was 25. I actually expect the committee to put Hall into the Tournament even if their NET finishes around 55. They've been unfairly hurt by NET and not given enough credit for their OOC.[/quote]

The Marquette win ages better by the game, that also helps.

See, in this 3-5 logjam, the Marquette win actually hurts us, because they reshape all the teams into a mini conference, and use the teams aggregate record in the mini conference as the tiebreaker. That hurts us because, by beating Marquette, it's very likely that we would have lost to other teams that we are tied with.

The NCAA Tournament selection committee sees that a little differently.
 
Paultzman wrote: Talked with Creighton AD, former NCAA Tournament Selection Committee Chair Bruce Rasmussen earlier. He clarified th… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Makes sense that they don't blindly follow NET metrics, which in my humble opinion are pretty screwy. May not be to our advantage this year though...
 
As usual with the Big East this year, the rich got richer yesterday. Fortunately, now that we're top 3, we're part of that category and gained 4 spots!

Big East:
#18 Marquette (+1)
#21 Villanova (+1)
#44 St. John's (+4)
#55 Butler (-4)
#62 Creighton (-5)
#63 Seton Hall (-1)
#72 Providence (0)
#86 Xavier (-2)
#87 Georgetown (+2)
#112 DePaul (-9)

I'll repeat what I've been saying: at one game under .500 in the Big East, we're in every bracket and #44 in NET. 9-9 would get us in.

Also, there are some mid major top 50 teams I feel could either:
a. fall out of the top 50
b. stay in the top 50 but not be selected by the Committee
c. win their conference tournament, and thus not steal an at large

Those teams:
#31 Wofford
#36 Lipscomb
#40 Utah St
#46 San Fran
#47 Hofstra
#49 Murray St

Bonus:
#51 UNC Greensboro
#52 St. Mary's
#56 Liberty
#60 Toledo

Huge Quad 1 win yesterday! Also, VCU is #53, so they're only 3 spots away from being Q1 (neutral). :)
 
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My odds on how many BE+BET+Duke wins I think each team needs to make the Tournament (most likely gets them in but not 100% locks), as well as my odds of them reaching that number:

Marquette (#18, 8-1)- LOCK
Nova (#21, 8-0)- needs 1 more (99.9% chance at winning 1 or more) Trending UP
St. John's (#44, 4-5)- needs 5 more (55%) UP
Butler (#55, 3-6)- needs 6 more (30%) DOWN
Creighton (#62, 3-5)- needs 7 more (30%) DOWN
Seton Hall (#63, 4-5)- needs 5 more (55%) UP

Marquette is now a lock! Amazing year considering they didn't even make the Tournament last year. Nova needs just one more win to feel safe.
 
One thing that's helped our ranking, is that Rutgers and Georgia Tech have, to this point, not been nearly as bad in conference play, as they were expected to be.

That's a road, and a neutral site victory, that have aged better then originally anticipated.
 
Let me be clear up front. The OOC was too weak, and a poor job was done assembling this years schedule.

However, another thing that has helped our rankings is that we won all of our OOC games. I know it's fashionable here to say those games do not count but that is not how the NET is looking at it at all. And for anyone who posts stuff like "we are actually 4-5" I ask the following question. Would you not count those 12 games if we lost any of them?

No need to answer that one.
 
VCU- #53 (last year #135 RPI)
Georgia Tech- #95 (last year #165 RPI)
Rutgers- #110 (last year #201 RPI)
Bowling Green- #129 (last year #195 RPI)

Yes, our OOC is good, especially when you consider VCU/GT/Rutgers were all neutral or away. VCU, GT, Rutgers, and BG all are performing 70-90 spots better than last year.

The 4 best teams in our OOC (besides Duke) all performed WAY above expectations, and of course we went 12-0. Some people just can't let the pre-season narrative die, but it needs to.
 
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[quote="Adam" post=319111]VCU- #53 (last year #135 RPI)
Georgia Tech- #95 (last year #165 RPI)
Rutgers- #110 (last year #201 RPI)
Bowling Green- #129 (last year #195 RPI)

Yes, our OOC is good, especially when you consider VCU/GT/Rutgers were all neutral or away. VCU, GT, Rutgers, and BG all are performing 70-90 spots better than one year ago.

The 4 best teams in our OOC (besides Duke) all performed WAY above expectations, and of course we went 12-0. Some people just can't let the pre-season narrative die, but it needs to. Our OOC is good and helps our resume, period.[/quote]

That is true, they all suck a little less than expected. And maybe they'll hold those numbers though probably not. Rutgers and GT don't look likely to get any more good wins and Princeton and BG will be keep going down purely on their SOS as they play more conference games.

My VHO is that the team needs 10 BE wins between the schedule and tourney to not be sweating bullets (still sweating but not bullets). 9 regular season wins and a Wed or Thur exit from the BET with no BET wins and a 21-11 record would probably kill their chances especially if one of the other 4 playing on Friday were from the mid pack and pulled a Thursday upset.
 
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Going by ESPN odds of winning:

@ Duke 5% L
@ Marquette 24% L
Vs Providence 77% W
Vs Butler 70% W
Vs Villanova 43% L
@ Providence 51% W
Vs Seton Hall 74% W
Vs Xavier 82% W
@ DePaul 58% W
@ Xavier 54% W

Better odds than I expected. That'd be 7-3 and 11-7 in conference. Now, to be fair a few of those games we're favored in are by razor thin margins (51/54/58%), so 6-4 may be more likely. Still, we'd easily get a bid going 10-8.
 
[quote="Adam" post=319255]Going by ESPN odds of winning:

@ Duke 5% L
@ Marquette 24% L
Vs Providence 77% W
Vs Butler 70% W
Vs Villanova 43% L
@ Providence 51% W
Vs Seton Hall 74% W
Vs Xavier 82% W
@ DePaul 58% W
@ Xavier 54% W

Better odds than I expected. That'd be 7-3 and 11-7 in conference. Now, to be fair a few of those games we're favored in are by razor thin margins (51/54/58%), so 6-4 may be more likely. Still, we'd easily get a bid going 10-8.[/quote]

That'd be awesome. As we know this has been a Jekyll and Hyde team in conference. Hope Jekyll, or Hyde, or whichever is better, sticks around for the rest of the season.
 
[quote="austour" post=319265][quote="Adam" post=319255]Going by ESPN odds of winning:

@ Duke 5% L
@ Marquette 24% L
Vs Providence 77% W
Vs Butler 70% W
Vs Villanova 43% L
@ Providence 51% W
Vs Seton Hall 74% W
Vs Xavier 82% W
@ DePaul 58% W
@ Xavier 54% W

Better odds than I expected. That'd be 7-3 and 11-7 in conference. Now, to be fair a few of those games we're favored in are by razor thin margins (51/54/58%), so 6-4 may be more likely. Still, we'd easily get a bid going 10-8.[/quote]

That'd be awesome. As we know this has been a Jekyll and Hyde team in conference. Hope Jekyll, or Hyde, or whichever is better, sticks around for the rest of the season.[/quote]

I love that stuff, but 2 things:

1. Those Numbers can always change based on performance (both ours and our opponents)

2. They've been wrong on 3 of our last 5 games (after running off 16 straight to start the year).

It's a fun thing to look at, but a lot of games in conference play this year can go either way.
 
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Big game tonight that can help us out. A ranked Buffalo team is playing at Bowling Green, who we beat earlier this year. For those not following, Bowling Green has actually been pretty good this year and hovering around 100 RPI. A win would be huge.
 
[quote="SJUNC" post=319281]There is no way that we sweep Providence, but we can beat Villanova[/quote]

How can you say there is no chance to sweep a team that is 13-8, 3-5? Sweeps are incredibly difficult in this conference and I don't think we do it, but to say there is no chance? C'mon. We just swept Creighton who beat Providence by 11 in Providence.
 
[quote="Adam" post=319111]VCU- #53 (last year #135 RPI)
Georgia Tech- #95 (last year #165 RPI)
Rutgers- #110 (last year #201 RPI)
Bowling Green- #129 (last year #195 RPI)

Yes, our OOC is good, especially when you consider VCU/GT/Rutgers were all neutral or away. VCU, GT, Rutgers, and BG all are performing 70-90 spots better than last year.

The 4 best teams in our OOC (besides Duke) all performed WAY above expectations, and of course we went 12-0. Some people just can't let the pre-season narrative die, but it needs to.[/quote]

Thank you Adam!!! and lets hope bowling green can shock buffalo
 
[quote="Room112" post=319274]Big game tonight that can help us out. A ranked Buffalo team is playing at Bowling Green, who we beat earlier this year. For those not following, Bowling Green has actually been pretty good this year and hovering around 100 RPI. A win would be huge.[/quote]


But i thought bowling green was one of our "cupcakes"???? said in jest!!!
 
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