NET rankings

[quote="fordham96" post=317023]Marquette has wins over Wisconsin, Kansas St, Louisville and Buffalo with a losses to Kansas on a neutral floor and Indiana on the road. 9-9 probably gets them in the NCAA's. You think for a second that would be a "success" this year? Answer: No. The goal is not simply just to make it. That is the minimum. The goal is to have the type of regular season that puts you in a position where you are safely in and can get a good seed.[/quote]

I'll be very pleased just to see us make the tourney either way, however it will be disappointing having to sweat on selection Sunday. Marquette and Nova having no issues in conference play.
 
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Guys, I am by no means saying 9-9 would be a lock, just that I think most likely we'd get in at 9-9. I am just countering some ridiculous talking points, like Jon Rothstein saying we needed 12 BE wins. The OOC NET is clearly in our favor, and the conference SOS is strong enough that I don't think we need more than 9 wins.

I agree that I wouldn't be thrilled with 9-9, especially since we may end up in Dayton. That said, I don't get too caught up in seeding. Just want to make it and advance.

The losses we already have aren't going away. Just hope the team can make the most of our remaining games.
 
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[quote="Adam" post=317030]Guys, I am by no means saying 9-9 would be a lock, just that I think most likely we'd get in at 9-9. I am just countering some ridiculous talking points, like Jon Rothstein saying we needed 12 BE wins. The OOC NET is clearly in our favor, and the conference SOS is strong enough that I don't think we need more than 9 wins.

I agree that I wouldn't be thrilled with 9-9, especially since we may end up in Dayton. That said, I don't get too caught up in seeding. Just want to make it and advance.

The losses we already have aren't going away. Just hope the team can make the most of our remaining games.[/quote]

You are correct. Our fans are bizarrely conservative when it comes to win totals and making the dance. 9-9 puts us on the bubble--I believe the right side of it (but a potential play-in). 10-8 is a guarantee.

There is even a possible situation where 9-9 could put us as a 5 or 6 seed (win @ Duke and make or win the BET championship game.
 
Bilas chimes in fwiw with his best 68


30. St. John's Red Storm

Shamorie Ponds is having a spectacular season and is putting up crazy numbers. Ponds is averaging almost 21 points and six assists per game, and he has shot more than 100 free throws this season. Five Johnnies average double figures, and Chris Mullin has one of the most talented teams in the Big East. If St. John's can defend and rebound at a higher level, the scoring can take the Johnnies places. No rebounds, no rings though.

List;
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/
 
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can't stand Bilas because he is all Duke and ACC, BUT he is spot on . Ive been saying this forever! Rebounding, most importantly OFFENSIVE rebounds change the dimension of this team. Seems only Figgie and sometimes Heron attempt to grab an offensive board. If you watch other successful teams the whole team is crashing looking for putbacks. Mullin has said in the past that is not our game, but if we are to make any kind of run- our game must change. We need to crash the offensive boards!!!
 
The key is getting in the tournament and then the team will ultimately be judged by their performance there.
 
Don't think there's a good chance at 9-9 unless we beat Duke or Nova. We'd really be sweating. Again, the Big East is solid, but it's not great this year. Right now it's basically Nova and Marquette nationally. It's them and everyone else. Right now we are in the everyone else group even though we should clearly be 3rd. To be 9-9 when there are only 2 legit great teams in an overall down year for the conference with this much talent and experience would be pretty underwhelming to say the least. This is not Seton Hall with Delgado or PC with Dunn or Xavier with Stainbrook or Butler with Sumner. There will likely never be a more open year than this in the conference.

I've watched both Nova and Marquette a lot and they have plenty of scares. They don't usually blow people out but they know what to do late to close out games. The announcers were saying that's how you can tell a good team. Right now we are not able to close. Up 20-4 at one point on Nova and had basically 3 leads of double digits all wasted, double digit lead at half vs. SH. It almost seems like we are at our best when we play from behind which is weird. We need to learn how to keep our foot on the gas and not settle for stupid shots e.g. hoisting ill-advised 3's after going up 10+. The key is to keep driving when you have the lead, because even if you don't make the shots you will draw fouls and keep maintaining the lead. We can't just shoot, shoot, shoot. We need to drive to set up the shot like Nova. We actually did drive a lot against Butler which was nice to see and got lots of FT's, but unfortunately we were awful shooting and they were good from 3. Tucker was in a video game shooting like 60% from 3. This team needs to prove it can win several straight. Time for a run.
 
Paultzman wrote: Bilas chimes in fwiw with his best 68


30. St. John's Red Storm

Shamorie Ponds is having a spectacular season and is putting up crazy numbers. Ponds is averaging almost 21 points and six assists per game, and he has shot more than 100 free throws this season. Five Johnnies average double figures, and Chris Mullin has one of the most talented teams in the Big East. If St. John's can defend and rebound at a higher level, the scoring can take the Johnnies places. No rebounds, no rings though.

List;
www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/

Great read! Thanks for posting. I really liked a couple of quotes from Bilas in his blurbs on Nova & Louisville:

Villanova still has the best culture in college basketball.

The keys have been togetherness and Christen Cunningham, one of the prime examples of why transfers should not be discouraged. Cunningham was a grad transfer from Samford, where he would have played in obscurity. Yet he transferred to Louisville and is respected nationally for his game and his character. Can only coaches aspire to move?
 
Exactly, the Big East is likely to get at least 5 teams in regardless, so 9-9 should do it this year I'm thinking. But, hoping for better.
 
Here is the thing about NET, and other rankings. They provide more commentary to an arbitrary number like a 9-9 big east conference record. While it's very important how we perform, these stats take a look at how we currently stack against the rest of the country.

From the way I've seen it so far, there has been alot of parity this year, especially in the major conferences. This has made it more possible for 9-9 to get us in than it may have seemed at the start of the year.

I love to reference the RPI, just as another tool to look at where we stand. Their projection (which I believe is pretty poor, it has us winning every home game and losing every road game), projects us to end at 21-10 and 9-9 in conference. They project us with that record to have an RPI of 35 and SOS of 69. Would that be enough to get us in with those numbers based on previous years?
 
I posted this in another thread, but felt it's worth posting here:

Just last year Syracuse, Arizona St, Alabama, Texas, and Oklahoma made the Tournament at 8-10 in conference. Possibly others as well. Out of the Big East, Butler made it at 9-9.


Again, the NCAA had 5 teams make it with 8-10 conference records just last year alone. While the ACC and Big 12 last year were better than the Big East this year, the Pac 12 and SEC weren't. This is 8-10 we're talking about, not 9-9. There is nothing mystical about 8-10 major conference teams making the Tournament, let alone 9-9.

I can't say that 9-9 would be a lock for St. John's, but I'd bet a lot of money that we'd make it.

Regardless, I'm just glad we're past the "we need 11/12 BE wins" narrative.
 
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[quote="Paultzman" post=317294]https://twitter.com/franfraschilla/status/1088865430171779072?s=21[/quote]

This has been my understanding. That is one of the flaws of KenPom...which does account for who you play and where the game is played. But, it does not apply for injuries or diminishing returns when garbage time plays a factor in margin of victory. An eight point win where the game is undecided until the last minute and fouls inflate the final margin should never be rated similarly to a 15 point solid to dominate win that becomes 10 at the end because of the walk-ons.
 
[quote="redmanwest" post=317091]Exactly, the Big East is likely to get at least 5 teams in regardless, so 9-9 should do it this year I'm thinking. But, hoping for better.[/quote]

With our ooc, sorry but we aren't getting in at 9-9.
10-8, maybe.

Yeah 9-9 for a team with a strong ooc schedule.
 
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[quote="oldschool Redmen" post=317307][quote="redmanwest" post=317091]Exactly, the Big East is likely to get at least 5 teams in regardless, so 9-9 should do it this year I'm thinking. But, hoping for better.[/quote]

With our ooc, sorry but we aren't getting in at 9-9.
10-8, maybe.

Yeah 9-9 for a team with a strong ooc schedule.[/quote]

What are you basing this on? There are a ton of other factors aside from OOC....
 
[quote="Room112" post=317341][quote="oldschool Redmen" post=317307][quote="redmanwest" post=317091]Exactly, the Big East is likely to get at least 5 teams in regardless, so 9-9 should do it this year I'm thinking. But, hoping for better.[/quote]

With our ooc, sorry but we aren't getting in at 9-9.
10-8, maybe.

Yeah 9-9 for a team with a strong ooc schedule.[/quote]

What are you basing this on? There are a ton of other factors aside from OOC....[/quote]

A "strong ooc" for 9-9 major conference teams has never historically been a requirement for Tournament selections. Simply being "good enough" OOC while going .500 in conference should be enough, and our OOC is certainly better than "good enough". I've followed bubble teams very closely and all the metrics surrounding them for !5 or so years. Our OOC NET is 24, which would be equivalent to a 6 seed. Historically teams at 9-9 and that kind of an OOC RPI get in... and usually pretty easily.

VCU is #57, GT is #84, BG is #108. None of those teams were projected top 100 teams this year. Factor in VCU/GT being neutral site games, a good away win at Rutgers, and very importantly no bad losses (or losses in general).

Look, I can be pessimistic regarding Johnnies basketball, but let's not act like we or the Big East have ever been screwed over in regards to making the Tournament, seeding, etc.

I love analytics which is why I started this thread, and I'm extremely confident in saying we will be treated fairly and make the Dance at 9-9.

I wouldn't feel 100% safe at 9-9, so I hope we win more, but the pessimism regarding our OOC has been overblown. Our OOC will help us rather than hurt, as the data has shown.
 
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To illustrate my point, let's look at Butler last year.

They made the Tournament at 9-9 in the Big East. Now, despite the Big East being stronger last year than this year they only beat 1 ranked team (Nova) the entire year. They lost to SIX ranked Big East teams. So they mostly beat up on the bottom part of the conference.

In terms of OOC?

Impressive OOC wins:
Vs Ohio St (N- OT by 1 point)

Losses:
@ Maryland
Vs Texas (N)
Vs Purdue (N)

How would that resume be any better than ours this year? It wouldn't be, in fact it'd be significantly worse. They went 1-3 against quality OOC opponents, and only beat one ranked team the whole year. Nobody on this board would trade our OOC for theirs. Their OOC NET wouldn't be anywhere close to ours (24). So then, why did they make the Tournament while we won't?

For all the naysayers, how about you lay out an argument for why we wouldn't make it at 9-9? I'd be interested in reading it.
 
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[quote="Adam" post=317353]To illustrate my point, let's look at Butler last year.

They made the Tournament at 9-9 in the Big East. Now, despite the Big East being stronger last year than this year they only beat 1 ranked team (Nova) the entire year. They lost to SIX ranked Big East teams. So they mostly beat up on the bottom part of the conference.

In terms of OOC?

Impressive OOC wins:
Vs Ohio St (N- OT by 1 point)

Losses:
@ Maryland
Vs Texas (N)
Vs Purdue (N)

How would that resume be any better than ours this year? It wouldn't be, in fact it'd be significantly worse. They went 1-3 against quality OOC opponents, and only beat one ranked team the whole year. Nobody on this board would trade our OOC for theirs. Their OOC NET wouldn't be anywhere close to ours (24). So then, why did they make the Tournament while we won't?

For all the naysayers, how about you lay out an argument for why we wouldn't make it at 9-9? I'd be interested in reading it.[/quote]

Well done
 
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